BEVs will never take over by 2035 (politician, compared, states, status)
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I just don't agree with this. Right now, EVs are stacked on lots. A lot less people are buying them than thought. I drive through the Mercedes lot once a week because the used car manager stocks exotics, they have a line of electric cars stacked with $12,500 discount stickers on them. I pay attention, they're the same ones. None of them are moving. Teslas are cult vehicles and I get that. Otherwise there aren't many EVs around here. I live in a pretty big city with LOTS of money, six figure cars, etc., Lambos, in areas.
Do you REALLY think private citizens (landlords) are going to pay for all of that? I wish I had pictures but chargers just flat wouldn't work, ever, in our old building. That's one of thousands.
I think Tesla is more than just a cult vehicle.
Mostly, I think they are just trusted. Tesla has worked out the kinks of EV design better than any other car manufacturer and is state-of-the art. I think a lot of BEV shoppers simply assume that whatever problems or issues they will have with a BEV, a Tesla will minimize that, right down to having a large, dedicated network of reliable charging stations.
Musk pretty much had a head start on everybody.
Some of it might be legacy. Back when Chrysler invented the minivan (despite the existence of the VW micro bus), Chrysler products were rated very low among auto manufacturers, foreign and domestic. Yet people ignored the poor quality and flocked to the Chrysler minivan just becaues it was first. By inventing the genre, it just established in people's minds that it was what you bought.
It took years before Toyota would finally wrestle top spot away from Chrysler.
So Tesla being first as well as the most mature and trouble free, makes it an easy choice for many people.
I do agree that Tesla has cult status among their owners, but I think it's #1 status is also due mainly to maturity, quality, and legacy as first really successful BEV.
Who knows with technology? Maybe before 2035 there will be a game changer in regards to charging BEV in terms of range and time. Personally I think it has to in order to accommodate all those that don't own homes or have garages to charge the BEVs.
I lived in an apartment in Los Angeles, there is absolutely no way chargers would have worked there. Cars were all parked in tandem, everything was tight, and it just wouldn't work. And good luck getting greedly landlords to pay for all of that.
Newer buildings, okay. But there are thousands and thousands of apartment buildings that aren't new and aren't built for charger stations, and like I said, landlords ain't gonna pay to retrofit. That's just one city.
Too bad they won’t hav any power due to the lack of fossil fuels needed to create the electricity. Solar and wind could never, ever work. Never will be reliable enough. Better go nuclear. That’s the only chance you got.
I didn't mean that in a bad way. I myself drive a cult vehicle. (LX570)
Mods don't take that as a one-liner, cult status is not a negative thing in my opinion. The opposite, actually.
I would call Lexus a status vehicle, not a cult vehicle.
When I think of "cult" vehicle, I think of a vehicle that has a "cult" following, usually a vehicle that is not mainstream. Like the ugly old Subarus had a cult following.
It doesn't just mean popular either. There are people who love Jeep Wranglers and wouldn't be caught dead in any thing else. That is not a cult vehicle, just one with high owner loyalty.
90% of all cars on the road are retired within 20 years.
In other words, by 2043, 90% of the cars on the road will be ones that haven't been built yet.
In theory, it would only take 20 years for BEVs to replace 90% of the cars on the road. 25 years on the outside.
California is going to mandate BEV only sales after 2035. In theory, by 2055, 90% of all vehicles in California will be BEVs. Pushing 100% by 2060. One question is, can automakers build 15 million BEVs for the California market in that time?
Another question is, how many Californians who hate BEVs will simply keep repairing their old ICE cars after they are 20 years old. Like what is done in Cuba. It may be a pain to keep repairing the running gear and other systems, but it is possible as long as you have access to parts from out of state.
Another question is, how long will California continue to sell gasoline in California? Interesting question when you consider visitors driving in from other states.
Last edited by Mike from back east; 07-24-2023 at 11:20 AM..
Reason: Removed offending quoted material.
I would call Lexus a status vehicle, not a cult vehicle.
When I think of "cult" vehicle, I think of a vehicle that has a "cult" following, usually a vehicle that is not mainstream. Like the ugly old Subarus had a cult following.
Not any Lexus, but the LX570 (Land Cruiser) is. They only sold 4-5k a year here. Rich people buy these new and completely go crazy off road with them. I know a guy who has two, one to trash off road and another pavement princess for his wife. Most people I see in them, we wave to each other.
While CA is mandating that no gas powered vehicles to be sold by 2035 and only BEV (Battery powered Electric Vehicles) to be sold. But the harsh reality is that, car makers won't be able to meet the demand and the infrastructure won't even be close to providing the electrical grid necessary.
There's simply not enough minerals to produce that many batteries. That's the simple truth.
We don't have the manpower to setup the charging network at every parking spot. Look at how many solar panels on rooftops that's been installed the last 25 years. That's how long and how many charging spots will be available in 25 years.
It doesn't matter if everybody is given a free Tesla, it would be quite useless for majority of people who don't own a home nor close to a charging spot to connect regularly.
Go watch the documentary on cobalt mining and tell me why are we pushing for EVs when there's simply not enough minerals and workers to mine the precious minerals and humanitarian catastrophe to subject these miners at the worst possible conditions.
Are we really doing nature and people good with these mining operations?
The math already shows it's not possible to replace even 10% of current gas powered cars with electric.
The notion that an one propulsion method is better than another is crazy. That said, I am almost 100% self sufficient in my solar system, which somehow I got the government to pay for the majority of. So I am all for electric cars for the life of this system. 20 years from now though, I'll probably be back to gas.
90% of all cars on the road are retired within 20 years.
In other words, by 2043, 90% of the cars on the road will be ones that haven't been built yet.
In theory, it would only take 20 years for BEVs to replace 90% of the cars on the road. 25 years on the outside.
California is going to mandate BEV only sales after 2035. In theory, by 2055, 90% of all vehicles in California will be BEVs. Pushing 100% by 2060. One question is, can automakers build 15 million BEVs for the California market in that time?
Another question is, how many Californians who hate BEVs will simply keep repairing their old ICE cars after they are 20 years old. Like what is done in Cuba. It may be a pain to keep repairing the running gear and other systems, but it is possible as long as you have access to parts from out of state.
Another question is, how long will California continue to sell gasoline in California? Interesting question when you consider visitors driving in from other states.
Why not just buy a new vehicle out of state?
So far as the law, the way I read it.. You just can't sell a new vehicle in CA after 2035 that isn't zero emission
Which.. Hybrids qualify. Hydrogen I would assume would qualify. But.. They say nothing about REGISTERING a vehicle. So.. People leave the state to buy. It becomes a road trip where you drive out to buy a new car and then have the road trip back home in the new vehicle.
Plus.. Who knows where we'll be in 2035. EV tech may have been replaced by the Next Big Thing.
Personally.. I think CA winds up delaying that. Probably due to electrical grid issues. The fact they changed the Net Metering rules on solar probably means that less and less people are going to be installing solar power.. and, if there start to be rolling blackouts.. Which.. Isn't a crazy thought.. Additionally. Many of the people who DO have solar, basically, anyone who put in solar prior to 2010.. Their systems will be due for replacement. With the new net metering and no subsidies (assuming).. Will they replace the system? Which.. Will put a bigger power crunch into play.
So far as the law, the way I read it.. You just can't sell a new vehicle in CA after 2035 that isn't zero emission
Which.. Hybrids qualify. Hydrogen I would assume would qualify. But.. They say nothing about REGISTERING a vehicle. So.. People leave the state to buy. It becomes a road trip where you drive out to buy a new car and then have the road trip back home in the new vehicle.
Plus.. Who knows where we'll be in 2035. EV tech may have been replaced by the Next Big Thing.
Personally.. I think CA winds up delaying that. Probably due to electrical grid issues. The fact they changed the Net Metering rules on solar probably means that less and less people are going to be installing solar power.. and, if there start to be rolling blackouts.. Which.. Isn't a crazy thought.. Additionally. Many of the people who DO have solar, basically, anyone who put in solar prior to 2010.. Their systems will be due for replacement. With the new net metering and no subsidies (assuming).. Will they replace the system? Which.. Will put a bigger power crunch into play.
When CARB bans ICE vehicles in California, they will refuse to allow the DMV to register any new ICE vehicles as of that date. Only ICE vehicles already owned by CA residents will be grandfathered in.
You could buy an ICE car out of state, tow it home, and leave it parked in your backyard.
If CARB allowed out of state sales, everyone would just go to Reno and Las Vegas to buy one. CARB is not going to allow that.
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