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Steven Penkevich spent 36 years at Ford Motor Co. F -0.65% as part of an army of Detroit engineers who perfected the internal combustion engine, a technology dating back to the dawn of the automobile era. He developed gasoline engines for family sedans as well as thunderous Nascar racing machines.
By last year, though, the excitement was gone. His projects were no longer about advancing the engine, just nursing along existing technology. All the buzz had shifted to electric vehicles. In December, Mr. Penkevich took early retirement at age 59.
“It got to feel like you’re on a maintenance crew,” he said.
For more than a century, auto makers continually honed their gas and diesel engines, sparring over which had greater power, better fuel efficiency, more durability or delivered a smoother ride.
Now, some of the world’s biggest car companies are sending the combustion engine to the scrap heap and are pouring billions of dollars into electric motors and battery factories. Instead of powertrain specialists, they are hiring thousands of software engineers and battery experts.
The transition is hardly noticeable yet on showroom floors. But it is upending the automotive workplace, from the engineering ranks and supply chain to the factory floor. Experts like Mr. Penkevich are retiring early or being laid off. Parts makers that for generations have made the same pieces for engines and transmissions are jockeying to supply electrical components.
Unions in the U.S. and Europe, fearing a steep loss of jobs tied to making engines and transmissions, are appealing to governments to help protect their members. The United Auto Workers has warned that the move to electric vehicles, which the union has said require fewer parts and roughly 30% less manpower to produce, could jeopardize tens of thousands of U.S. jobs.
“It’s been a fun ride,” said engineer Dave Lancaster, who spent 40 years working in engine development at General Motors Co. GM -1.26% “But I think we’re coming into the homestretch for the conventional engine.”
The Government is driving, pardon the pun, this head long, mis-directed rush to electric vehicles. Anyone with any sense, understands that the electric grid, currently, pardon another pun, isn't yet robust enough to take care of the increased load that will be generated by having to re-charge all of those EVs....
I think 50% plugins for new car sales is reasonable, but it's possible that at that point PHEVs still play some part in it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by leadfoot4
The Government is driving, pardon the pun, this head long, mis-directed rush to electric vehicles. Anyone with any sense, understands that the electric grid, currently, pardon another pun, isn't yet robust enough to take care of the increased load that will be generated by having to re-charge all of those EVs....
I disagree it's misdirected. Electricity can be economically generated from a lot greater variety of sources than gasoline can for an internal combustion engine. EVs also yield the bonuses of no tailpipe emissions which is especially nice in densely populated and heavily trafficked areas. The grid will need to be improved, but that's needed anyways, and the fact of the matter is that the US median fleet age is nearing 12 years old so even if you get to 50% new BEVs by 2030, that means the vast majority of the vehicles on the road will not be BEVs. The annual increment of electricity use then is actually a pretty small percentage you'd need since it stretches over such a long time frame.
and the fact of the matter is that the US median fleet age is nearing 12 years old so even if you get to 50% new BEVs by 2030, that means the vast majority of the vehicles on the road will not be BEVs.
The annual increment of electricity use then is actually a pretty small percentage you'd need since it stretches over such a long time frame.
These are two things those fearful of EVs ALWAYS forget. They ALWAYS talk about the fear of 100% of EVs happening ALL AT ONCE with present day supply issues and how can the grid handle that? And that their ICE cars will be taken away ALL AT ONCE as well. Both are strawman fears, setting up impossible and unrealistic scenarios then wailing about them. I'm getting quite tired of that sort of willful ignorance.
These are two things those fearful of EVs ALWAYS forget. They ALWAYS talk about the fear of 100% of EVs happening ALL AT ONCE with present day supply issues and how can the grid handle that? And that their ICE cars will be taken away ALL AT ONCE as well. Both are strawman fears, setting up impossible and unrealistic scenarios then wailing about them. I'm getting quite tired of that sort of willful ignorance.
Much of the problem will be solved by timing the use of the charging devices. Likely the utilities will compel it with variable rates.
And there will be numerous make-dos by that time. For instance Moderate size storage units will be common with the oncoming battery tech now well underway. So if a particular neighborhood gets overloaded you just fix it. And note that initially it will tend to be the better off neighborhoods. May also combine it with neighborhood solar.
It is a politico/economic issue. Right now politicians lick their index finger and stick it in the air to feel the wind direction, then try to move the "masses" to jump in the bang wagon, which in turn fills their pockets for a few years. Then if a few years later the plan is not realized, they cannot be blamed for the failure since ideas relating "green technology" is always good in the eye of the gullible. Yes, some of you can say whatever you want, including, "that batteries are becoming more efficient and cheaper," but that is only an illusion since the metals and plastics needed to build batteries are getting more expensive each day, regardless of how much the "battery production market" push on the masses with news articles day in and day out.
Just look at every product there is. Are your pots and pans getting cheaper, how about lumber, petroleum, automobiles of all kinds, the tires for your truck, the food you eat, construction materials (lumber for example), the computer you use, Roman blinds for your home, and so on. Are homes purchases becoming cheaper each day? How about your rent? Are minerals growing on trees these days?
It is a politico/economic issue. Right now politicians lick their index finger and stick it in the air to feel the wind direction, then try to move the "masses" to jump in the bang wagon, which in turn fills their pockets for a few years. Then if a few years later the plan is not realized, they cannot be blamed for the failure. Yes, some of you can say whatever you want, including, "batteries are becoming cheaper," but that is only an illusion since the metals and plastics needed to build batteries are getting more expensive each day, regardless of how much the "battery production market" says otherwise.
I'm also one of the masses that routinely vote for politicians that go in that direction, so I feel like I'm winning quite a bit! I'm also quite willing to put money in their pockets for their campaigns!
There is a very real worry that the price of materials needed per kg for batteries increase as demand increases. The two factors that might keep things somewhat manageable is that 1) as demand increases there may be more entrants into the field of mining and extracting these materials for that supply and to invest in doing it more efficiently than their competitors, and 2) a continuation of improvements in the core technologies behind battery production which have seen some significant density increases such that there is less material and/or alternative materials used per kWh of capacity.
What will be interesting to see is if the first and second keep happening at a pace that can meet battery demand such that the precipitous nine-fold drop in battery prices per kWh in the 2010s comes even close to repeating this decade. I think we'd be lucky if we even get half given how quickly EV adoption seems to be taking off (China just hit double digit new vehicle market share for BEVs and that's a massive market to go along with what's been happening in much of Europe). Sure, there been a lot more money being put into battery R&D, but who knows what if any of that will make it into production fast enough to keep up with demand such that $/kWh keeps falling.
I hope we keep seeing notable improvements in battery energy density as at some point I believe people will stop caring so much about EV range (maybe at 300 miles average? 400 miles average? 500?) such that these density improvements don't just go into more and more capacity for ever higher range, but instead into lighter vehicles that are more efficient and have even more volume for usable interior space in proportion to exterior dimensions. The Tesla Model S revision seems to be the first step in that direction at about 400 miles range as compared to the previous version it has slightly lighter overall vehicle weight (despite the inclusion of a heat pump system which wasn't there before) and higher efficiency. It pays dividends as then it's less kWhs used per mile, less materials used and transported per mile of range, and less weight and road wear.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 07-23-2021 at 05:47 PM..
Are we talking about Denmark or the US? Doubtful they'll be 50% by 2030 in the US. By 2035 though likely will be due to mandate. They've still got a long way to go in terms of price. Starting to see some like the ID4, Mach E and then the upcoming EV6/Ioniq that will be pretty high volume sellers. The problem is they're still $15,000 more expensive than gas-powered analogs. Not terrible with the government writeoffs but they'll run out of those pretty quick if they sell even moderately well. ICE is pretty dead but it's going to be be a slow death.
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