Does Anyone Still Believe BEVs won't be 50% of New Car Sales by 2030?

[OyCrumbler]

^forgot to add that the battery improvements also improved longevity because part of battery longevity is the number of duty cycles it goes through and these improvements mean more range per duty cycle.

I think a combination of the pace of the battery improvements and how so many factors are linked to it is probably a good part of why it's been surprising for some how quickly EVs have improved over the last decade or so and why we keep retreading the same ground as it's pretty easy to not understand how outdated some of the criticisms are. I think what's surprising is that so many people on this forum have already been told this many, many times and still it hasn't quite sunk in despite how evident it is that EVs have improved quite rapidly and will continue to do so.

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by OyCrumbler

- Electricity production is not the limiting factor here nor will it be in the near future.

On the demand side, the needed growth for a transition to 50% EV new vehicle sales by 2030 isn't that large in terms of additional consumption, generation capacity, transmission capacity or distribution.

I would agree with that statement in general with the following caveat- Hawaii and California produce significantly less electricity per capita than the rest of the nation. In 2021 California only produced 193,569 GWh. As there are ~20 million vehicles registered in California that is only ~10 MWh per vehicle. Since an EV uses ~5 to 7 MWh per year to drive 15,000 miles eventually CA will have to generate or have reliable means of purchasing a lot more electricity.

As California seems determined to be nuclear free in a few years, many engineers have expressed their doubts as to the state's ability to accomplish this task. Palo Verde nuclear power plant (100 miles from California border in Arizona desert) produces over 30,000,000 MWh most years. This nuclear power plant is a major source of electric power for the densely populated parts of Southern Arizona and Southern California, e.g. the Phoenix, and Tucson, Arizona, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, and San Diego, California metropolitan areas.

Palo Verde has received extensions to allow Unit 1 to operate through 2045, Unit 2 through 2046 and Unit 3 through 2047 and they are in the process of trying to get an additional 20 year extension. But California state law as currently written will not allow CA to import electricity generated from nuclear power beyond the year 2045.

[elnina]

Over 1600 posts and still bickering about the same things over and over again?
I think we have reached a conclusion and this thread can be closed, finally.