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Ha. You said "appropriate use" referring to pick up buyers. That market is driven primarily on "What I could do" versus "What I need to do." I (figurative) may not need 13000 pounds towing capacity or 500 mile range but I want it. I also want to drive it every day, so it can't ride like a "Conestoga wagon slathered with leather."
Work fleets will love them. They will figure out exactly what and where and how far. The average buyer will take some time until range increases and charging time decreases.
All depends on location, and work load/distance. A work truck (pickup) for heavy-load use would discharge the battery quite fast. Also, if it is very hot that day, or night, the occupants would have to turn the AC on for extended periods of time. If it is cold, the heater has to be running full time.
People who use trucks as a family vehicle for transportation and other light use aren't the issue, but a work truck is. Batteries cannot duplicate nor exceed the density of liquid fuels, thus the reason why cargo aircraft don't use batteries for propulsion. Farmers, construction companies and workers, police forces, the military, and so on, idle their vehicles for long periods of time, and tow or haul heavy loads for long distances.
The ICE is far from dead and will likely be the majority mode of vehicle power in the USA for the next 50 years. The BEV will continue to gain ground in dense urban areas and nations with little or no petroleum reserves.
On the supply side, EVs take cobalt (for now) and estimates indicate there will be shortages on cobalt which will reduce the ability of battery production in long term.
The part not mentioned yet is cost. There is a majority of Americans that do not have enough income to purchase and sustain ownership of a EV. All the employed in the service industry, agriculture and manufacturing industries will not nor want to purchase and maintain a EV.
This is reminiscent of the green building push or net zero building push starting around 2005. After all the architecture and engineering communities pushing and pushing, the increase percentage is less than 1% annually because companies (not individuals) don’t want to pay 10-15% more construction costs for a green building. And now you’re hearing the phrase “lets require green buildings….then we’ll see more”. Wonderful. https://www.manhattan-institute.org/...ear-impossible
On the supply side, EVs take cobalt (for now) and estimates indicate there will be shortages on cobalt which will reduce the ability of battery production in long term.
The part not mentioned yet is cost. There is a majority of Americans that do not have enough income to purchase and sustain ownership of a EV. All the employed in the service industry, agriculture and manufacturing industries will not nor want to purchase and maintain a EV.
This is reminiscent of the green building push or net zero building push starting around 2005. After all the architecture and engineering communities pushing and pushing, the increase percentage is less than 1% annually because companies (not individuals) don’t want to pay 10-15% more construction costs for a green building. And now you’re hearing the phrase “lets require green buildings….then we’ll see more”. Wonderful. https://www.manhattan-institute.org/...ear-impossible
The general view in the industry is that EVs will be cheaper to produce both on a parts cost basis and assembly cost. Simply fewer and simpler parts. So as soon as the front end costs are covered and volumes grow the EVs will be more than competitive with the ICEs.
And there are a number of new batteries coming. Three or four will hit in the next two or three years. Most interesting may be the one of Goodenough et al. which overcomes virtually all the battery problems. Still has to scale up but looks good. For those who do not know Goodenough is the inventor of the Li+ battery.
So on balance it is likely the EVs will go quicker than is presently thought. Do hang on - the next couple of years are going to be interesting.
I know where I live very few truck buyers keep the stock tires, they all change over to the big all terrain tires. My buddy had his new GMC less than two weeks before changing the tires (mostly for looks I think). I’m not sure what that would do to the range on an EV truck.
I’m curious if the tires on that Hummer EV are low rolling resistance?
Given the massive negative performance and fuel economy impact big all terrain tires have on ICE trucks, I think its safe to say they would have a significant negative impact on the range of an EV truck.
sure, when so many donkeys and pigs are flying they have to install an air traffic control just for them. not only do we not have known the rare materials to meets the 50% for the US market - that is assuming the owners of said raw materials will even sell them to us cuz a) we aint the rest of the world and b) said materials are held by countries we are currently at war with and they may not be so predisposed to fulfill our whims. we need to elongate this time frame....a lot.
Given the massive negative performance and fuel economy impact big all terrain tires have on ICE trucks, I think its safe to say they would have a significant negative impact on the range of an EV truck.
yeah but mass is mass and watts is watts. the effect on each will be the same
60% of Americans live in detached single family homes. Most apartments aren’t going to have charging stations in 2030. I’m not convinced that it will be 50% market share by 2030. Too much of the population can’t charge an EV overnight. I only have 100 amp service out to the street and I’m in Massachusetts with 20+ cent per KWh electricity that’s among the highest in the lower 48. I’m not convinced I make back the big electrician bill.
I don’t plan to be an early adopter. I’ll let battery technology follow Moore’s Law and wait for the long term reliability data to come available. I care more about autonomous vehicles than EV as I age.
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The cost to own EVs is expensive
