BEVs will never take over by 2035 (stats, compare, Massachusetts, Nevada)

[Ehrmantraut]

Originally Posted by Phil P

If you're just going straight down a Texas highway you can feel that way. As soon as you start doing corners, you'd realize why high, big, and fat isn't ideal, no matter how many polishes you put on the vehicle. It's just geometry and physics, that simple.
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Ever driven one? It doesn't sound like it. Nobody is saying a Yukon is a Porsche but they handle well for what they are.

I don't care about chasing sports cars up mountains and neither do the rest of the millions of owners. Do you see me buying a sports car to tow my boat all over the place?

But yes I care what's under the hood.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by Phil P

Exactly. We're making marginal improvements (at most 50% less carbon intensive say), not magnitude level improvements with this shift - and if we don't address the issue of never ending horsepower and size and mileage increases we are literally treading water or going backwards, where increased use offsets any of the electrification gain.

As I have been saying the dance is not really for environmental improvements; it's to have control by the "intelligentsia" over the peasants, as well as having more class distance. I think the upper classes don't like it when everyone can "locomote" as they please. There have been other recent examples, off topic, if exercise of control, and efforts to punish the middle class for spending too much, living too high.

Originally Posted by Phil P

This is a big factor as well. If self driving ever was actually functional this trend would really take off and there would be huge efficiency gains from it, but that's decades out. Currently though the gains are in better urban design and lack of unnecessary commutes, those two things are helping reduce vehicle count needed now.

I have similar control concerns about self-driving cars, since it will give "higher-ups" direct ability to monitor and control travel. In addition, it will make highway speed limits extremely enforceable. As it is I am surprised more are not rebelling about low speed limits and similar restrictions. I remember that strict enforcement of "55" partially led to the national ceiling being raised to 65 in the late 1980's and then being abolished on December 1, 1995.

[Ehrmantraut]

Well, this isn't a smart-ass comment one-liner toward anyone here but I hate to tell people "I told ya so." Mercedes is bringing back V8s. They claim to be 100% electric by 2030 (my butt), when in this article it talks about them bringing this V8 back 3 years from now in 2026. Lots of people I think thought car companies had no contingencies....of course they did!

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a4...e63-v8-return/

[Malloric]

Originally Posted by Ehrmantraut

Well, this isn't a smart-ass comment one-liner toward anyone here but I hate to tell people "I told ya so." Mercedes is bringing back V8s. They claim to be 100% electric by 2030 (my butt), when in this article it talks about them bringing this V8 back 3 years from now in 2026. Lots of people I think thought car companies had no contingencies....of course they did!

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a4...e63-v8-return/

Yeah, the 4 banger PHEV C63 was not well received... that said, a lot of it wasn't the engine. I mean, nobody liked the engine either but that wasn't where the problems ended.

As far as what that has to do with them going all electric by 2030 it's very little. First off they have never said that. They said they'd go all electric by 2030 in markets where the market supports that, either because gas cars are outlawed, taxed to oblivion, or just that people in those markets hate them and refuse to buy them. For other markets where people still want to buy gas cars they're going to keep selling gas cars. So they're going to go right on ahead and keep selling gas cars in California and other CARB states right up until they can't which is currently 2035.

Personally, I strongly suspect that 2035 is going to be pushed back. Toyota apparently has a new fancy type of battery that goes 750 miles, costs half what batteries do now, and by 2027 you'll be able to get a wonder EV with this new battery that previously was only going to be in hybrids next year. But now it's in BEVs in 2027. They've gone dark on the solid state hybrids that are coming out next year though. It all smells a bit like bullchit to me.

[Ehrmantraut]

Originally Posted by Malloric

Yeah, the 4 banger PHEV C63 was not well received... that said, a lot of it wasn't the engine. d.

Well, most of it was the engine. But yes, other problems too. It weighs more than a W140, lol.

Originally Posted by Malloric

As far as what that has to do with them going all electric by 2030 it's very little. First off they have never said that. They said they'd go all electric by 2030 in markets where the market supports that, either because gas cars a

I know. The fine print says exactly what you're saying, but they don't want us to read that. But their bs virtue signal about 2030 yeah we all got loud and clear.

Originally Posted by Malloric

They've gone dark on the solid state hybrids that are coming out next year though. It all smells a bit like bullchit to me.

It is. They're forgetting also how stubborn Americans are, too. Over my dead body before I ever bought an EV. I don't care for them (though more power to those who do) but I'm also not blindly following orders from the TV.

[Mike from back east]

A few tidbits from my morning EV email from Bloomberg:

- "There’s no shortage of big developments in EV charging lately, from the 7 automakers that banded together for a North American venture to the many that have embraced the connector design Tesla is trying to make the new industry standard." (Setting a standard is one key way to promote acceptance, just as standards make our electrical appliances and tools work the same, and SAFELY, in all 50 states.)

- "BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario anticipates that the combined storage capacity of all electric vehicles will reach 52 terawatt-hours by 2040 — 570 times today’s deployed grid storage. They’ll also consume 3,200 TWh of electricity annually — about 9% of global electricity demand.

- "These big batteries can move electricity demand around or send energy back to the grid. Automakers are exploring the business models and technology necessary to take advantage: General Motors just announced it will make vehicle-to-home bidirectional charging tech available across a range of its EVs by the 2026 model year. Renault will start offering a vehicle-to-grid service with its R5 model in France and Germany next year."

- "Truck Charging Stops Start to Sprout ... BloombergNEF projects the fleet will grow to 12 million by 2040, requiring 280,000 public chargers. ... Many more stations are coming from the likes of Greenlane and Milence. Truck charging joint ventures have formed in both the US and Europe, and Tesla is seeking almost $100 million in US government funding to build nine semi-truck charging stations along a route from the southern border of Texas to northern California."


I find it rather cool that millions of EV could be used as a form of grid storage and feed it back as may be required.

I still love the roar of a big block American V-8 at full throttle (don't we all?) but I have no fear or ill-will to EVs and plan to have one as the mass market starts to deliver in a few years.

[Mike from back east]

Found this in my morning BEV email from Bloomberg. Imports of oil into China are about to enter a long downward glide path.

Earlier this month, Chinese oil giant Sinopec made a surprise announcement that mostly flew under the radar. It’s now expecting gasoline demand in China to peak this year, two years earlier than its previous outlooks. The main culprit? The surging number of electric vehicles on the road.

But this isn’t an analyst calling a peak; it’s China’s largest fuel distributor. Sinopec knows the fuel business, and more importantly, it has an interest in the business remaining robust. Saying it’s all downhill from here for gasoline is quite a statement.

China has been the largest driver of global growth for refined oil products like gasoline and diesel over the last two decades. But EV adoption rates in China are now soaring, with August figures likely to show plug-in vehicles hitting 38% of new passenger-vehicle sales. That’s up from just 6% in 2020 and is starting to materially dent fuel demand.

The Argonne National Lab reports this:

Plug-In Vehicle Sales

A total of 119,853 plug-in vehicles (97,320 BEVs and 22,533 PHEVs) were sold during July 2023 in the United States, up 53.2% from the sales in July 2022. PEVs captured 9.23% of total LDV sales this month.

Cumulatively, 780,294 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold in 2023. In total, 4,060,588 PHEVs and BEVs have been sold since 2010.

Sales of BEVs will continue to rise until it makes a dent in U.S. gasoline consumption. BEVs won't replace ICE vehicles by 2035 but I hope to still be around in 2035 to see how it's going.

[MKTwet]

Originally Posted by Malloric

Yeah, the 4 banger PHEV C63 was not well received... that said, a lot of it wasn't the engine. I mean, nobody liked the engine either but that wasn't where the problems ended.

As far as what that has to do with them going all electric by 2030 it's very little. First off they have never said that. They said they'd go all electric by 2030 in markets where the market supports that, either because gas cars are outlawed, taxed to oblivion, or just that people in those markets hate them and refuse to buy them. For other markets where people still want to buy gas cars they're going to keep selling gas cars. So they're going to go right on ahead and keep selling gas cars in California and other CARB states right up until they can't which is currently 2035.

Personally, I strongly suspect that 2035 is going to be pushed back. Toyota apparently has a new fancy type of battery that goes 750 miles, costs half what batteries do now, and by 2027 you'll be able to get a wonder EV with this new battery that previously was only going to be in hybrids next year. But now it's in BEVs in 2027. They've gone dark on the solid state hybrids that are coming out next year though. It all smells a bit like bullchit to me.

It didn't matter the C63 with a 4 cylinder turbo made the same HP of V8, people would rather pay the price for V8 muscle. Leave it to the Germans to dictate consumer sentiments and see how long that's gonna last.

I predict VW and Audi will lose so much money to their electrification that they will have to sell some brands or write down a lot of losses to restart their gas car assembly line again. Ford and GM losing billions to EVs right now is an indication of it. When you were built on gas power and you suddenly try to out compete Tesla you're not gonna make a better Tesla.

[wilberry]

I still do not understand how with all of the advancements in technology we can't figure out how to extract a useable form of Hydrogen from H20 and mix it with our current fuels on demand as needed without having to change our current infrastructure so drastically . Electrolysis is a known process and we should be able to create a useable clean burning form of Hydrogen on demand within our vehicles to mix with gasoline. I know someone who has a way to do it and I know someone who after 35 years says it cant be done. Some one should have figured this out by now !

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by wilberry

I still do not understand how with all of the advancements in technology we can't figure out how to extract a useable form of Hydrogen from H20 and mix it with our current fuels on demand as needed without having to change our current infrastructure so drastically . Electrolysis is a known process and we should be able to create a useable clean burning form of Hydrogen on demand within our vehicles to mix with gasoline. I know someone who has a way to do it and I know someone who after 35 years says it cant be done. Some one should have figured this out by now !

There are some firms working hard to get to a solution with Hydrogen. I own some stock in one such firm as well as some stock in several Lithium miners.

There are other firms beginning to see success to extract lithium in a much more scalable manner than the year-long brine pit evaporation method.

In a recent email from Bloomberg's "Hyperdrive" column it has this go say:

Standard Lithium is working on the breakthrough inside a white warehouse near a massive chemical factory run by Germany’s Lanxess that feeds brackish wastewater into the facility. A cluster of pipes and tanks in the demonstration plant turn brine into a lithium compound within days instead of the year or more that traditional recovery methods take.

The firm is among dozens of companies racing to commercialize technology to extract lithium directly from brine, ushering in a new source to supplement the hard rock mines and huge evaporation ponds that currently supply the battery metal to the world. The outcome of such efforts is set to shape the industry’s future, bringing either the promise of abundant supply or setbacks that sour investors for years.

The advances are collectively known as direct lithium extraction, or DLE. They promise to be cheaper, faster and greener than traditional lithium production in South America, which holds about half of the world’s reserves of the silvery white metal. DLE would also unlock new supplies in North America, including recovering the metal out of the salty water produced by oil drilling.

As R&D in many areas of technology unleashes more of the creative process we will see amazing advances, be it in Lithium, alternatives to Lithium, Hydrogen, or battery construction, etc. The future is coming at us faster every year, and at 75 I hope I live another 10 years to see it all happen. The future is going to be amazing.