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Originally Posted by guidoLaMoto
Coal plants were providing all the power and matching demand. Then the govt insisted alternatives be built, greatly increasing supply. Now there is a surplus.
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There was (is) a little more (meaning a LOT more) to it -- There used to be a steady dependable growth Year-on-Year -- on the the Demand side. Recall the most recent Coal plants are from the mid-200x decade. "Back then" estimated annual demand GROWTH rate was at least 1 to 2%. So if you had 100 Central Plants (of whatever flavor) you would need AT LEAST one new Plant every year additional, along with maintaining and/or replacing any of the old, existing ones.
BUT when the Great Recession hit -- Demand Growth went Negative. That had NEVER happened before. And with the advent of Energy Efficiency -- such as LED Lighting, and Variable Speed Drives on Motors . . . Overnight Demand has really been down. So much so, that in some areas Overnight Electricity is Free -- just to have someplace to dump the Surplus from Overnight Coal, Nukes, and even Wind.
Rough part for the Olde School Coal Market folks is even their daytime peak (Premium Priced and Pays the Bills) is being Cherry-Picked by Day Time Solar.
But at any rate -- Coal was over-built in the 200x decade anticipating the steady growth that stopped. Since it takes years to plan ahead, budget, get equipment lined up for New Plants -- once they get started, they are hard to stop. So everyone kept building, until it stopped. Result = Surplus.
I was working that field then. We have BRAND NEW Coal Plants -- still sitting in parts and pieces in "Laydown Yards" that will never (hopefully) be built. Just future Scrap Metal, I suppose.
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To remain as a viable back-up, the coal plants have to keep the water hot, literally & figuratively. How long does it take to bring one cup of water to a boil for your morning egg? How long would it take to bring millions of gallons to a boil when starting at room temp?
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They (Coal Plants) are even worse than that. To deal with the Process Chemistry involved in Electrostatic Precipatators (removes / reduces dust and fly ash), NOx reduction, and SOx Scubbers, they have to run steady-state for at least a couple of days (around the clock) to get all the processes and temperatures to fully stabilize.
Since there is less and less demand for baseload -- those Coal and Nuke plants (base load) are generally more and more worthless.
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One problem with switching from coal to NG or wood gas is that it works great in our fantasy world, but we'd have to actually do it in the real world. Coal mining areas are often single industry areas. How do we transition those workers? How will they support their families without the mines? What work could be provided in their home area? Why isn't that work available there now if it's that simple and good.?
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Sure, no fan of Coal Gas -- especially when everything is still surplus everywhere, anyway. That was just a mention if (IF and only IF) somehow one was obliged for some reason to continue Coal. Which no one, no no where is.
As far as workfare, welfare, and efficiencies -- A much boarder topic that is running all over the place WAY Beyond Coal and Energy . . . . Surplus on Labor Forces -- which like Surplus Energy -- is NOT such a Bad Thing if we played it with some sensibility (Good Luck on THAT.
). If a typical work-week is 40 hours, and there is 10% surplus labor . . . just cutting the work week back to 36 hours (and in-filling with the surplus) fixes things pretty quick.
It costs the overall same, either way, and the free 4 hours a week it clears for the top end of the work force can be better used to help the community in Schools, Mentors, Volunteers, Churches, on and on. These are just things of "Numbers." Numbers can enslave or free us -- depending on how we use them. No point in Humans being servants to Numbers, is there?
But jumping back to Coal in Specific -- probably digging Coal out of the ground and polluting the Air, Water, and Land is NOT the Best "Employment Plan" is it?
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BTW- those idiots and their free markets lifted humanity from an agrarian society to an industrial society over the course of fifty yrs in the 19th century, increasing life expectancy from 25 yrs to 50 yrs along the way. Now with excessive regs, we haven't really advanced much since the advent of the computer and cell phone 40 yrs ago. Cause & effect or coincidence?
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Sorry, but I have to score this one as bs. I understand it has been Highly Marketed since Reaganomics, along with the "Free Markets and Free Men," but by now it can be fairly seen as bs, no?
Tech Transitions take about 40 year or so for Next Step cycles -- e.g. Land Lines to Cell Phones, Horses to Cars, No Personal Computers to Computers Everywhere. All about 40 years. Many more examples, but we will jump to "why" in a second . . .
BUT that is a NOT a "free market" thing. Keep in mind that the Free Market folks are generally a bit of dim-witted braggarts who like to claim credit for what is considered Good, and try to blame shift for things that are considered Bad. They are generally Business / Marketing folks in the Real World.
Real driver on Technology Shifts seem to be People. Real Human People, and our Real Human Brains. It is our Hardware.
As the saying goes "Hard to teach an old dog new tricks" -- Human Brains -- once "programmed" into THIS IS WHAT WE DO -- like the Coal Miners and Regions you cited above -- tend to stay on that track, if left undisturbed. It is actually Real Work to un-learn Old Things and replace them with New Things. Estimates are that it takes about 9 times Mental Energy and Work to unlearn something and replace it with something new. (we can do the Neuro-Anatomy issues, but this is getting WAY off Coal Plants . . .
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So back to the 40 year cycle -- THAT is the career die-off period of the Prior Folks to allow the New Folks to rise up with the New Thing(s) . . . which at some future time become the Old Things.
Major Wars tend to rapidly advance that cycle, by the way. But after the 40 years, it does not seem a shift because for the New (now Old) Folks -- the New Thing is the way things are.
But for a VERY INTERESTING (at least to me) study of Technology Shifts this link below is pretty good. About the Transition from Horses to Automobiles. Since it is 100 years back -- we do not tend to be so Mind-Locked about it as things which may be transition around us in our own lifetime.
Driven by . . . . Manure. About the same as trying to get away from the Pollution (Manure) of Coal.
Likely some day folks will look back and say . . . . they (us) once burned Coal for Electricity?
http://www.uctc.net/access/30/Access...se%20Power.pdf
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