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The idea that as tests fall positivity goes up is not a rule, but based on the practical idea that symptomatic people would be more likely to be tested than asymptomatic people if you did less tests. That's really no longer true in 2023.
How do you conclude that symptomatic are no longer more likely to be tested than asymptomatic?
There is no need to quote so called "experts." This is very common sense, and you can think through it yourself. Why do we have brains if we will just out source our thinking to others?
If we had a truly random sampling of people we were testing, then positivity would stay the same whether we did 1,000 tests or 10,000,000. That's the point of sampling.
Now if your sampling is not random, it can skew positivity in either direction no matter the number of tests you do. If your policy was to test just asymptomatic, you may get a similar positivity rate irregardless if you test 1,000 or 10 million. If you tested just hospitalized patients, you'd get a different positivity rate. Your crossection of whom you're testing is important.
The idea that as tests fall positivity goes up is not a rule, but based on the practical idea that symptomatic people would be more likely to be tested than asymptomatic people if you did less tests. That's really no longer true in 2023.
That would make sense if covid symptoms were something rare, like buboes, but considering those getting tested for covid have respiratory symptoms, common symptoms for hundreds of bacterial/viral infections. So the data validation is effective.
Also, these numbers are across ALL sectors, which is what makes in an effective indicator, just testing at, in your example, could not be used in this manner, the number is too small a sampling. It would be helpful for the hospital, but nothing else.
Also, tests per day have been consistent in numbers through the end of reporting. Now very few states are reporting this data, but is collected on a federal level. I hate the CDC's site for just about everything.
But I'm sure the NIH, CIDRAP, CDC, John's Hopkins and all the infectious disease experts are wrong, and YOU are the one who saw through it all.
Just an FYI, this has been an existing metric, not something they came up with for Covid.
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How do you conclude that symptomatic are no longer more likely to be tested than asymptomatic?
People who are getting tested now basically are all those getting admitted to hospital.
Back in 2021/2022 people who were worried about COVID, had symptoms, sought out tests to verify. Now either those people are no longer worried, or they have rapid antigen tests (which they don't bother to report).
People who are getting tested now basically are all those getting admitted to hospital.
Back in 2021/2022 people who were worried about COVID, had symptoms, sought out tests to verify. Now either those people are no longer worried, or they have rapid antigen tests (which they don't bother to report).
So the sample you get now is the hospital one.
And all the rapid covid testing sites like CVS, the big medical companies like Renown, most colleges, along with a bunch I probably know nothing about.
The other data that comes in the can be cross referenced with test positivity is waste water sampling.
While the timing of those is not exact (wastewater leads) there have been no significant anomalies (ie: test positivity high, wastewater testing low) noted that I have seen. I always check multiple sources if I need to get a feel for what is happening.
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And all the rapid covid testing sites like CVS, the big medical companies like Renown, most colleges, along with a bunch I probably know nothing about.
The other data that comes in the can be cross referenced with test positivity is waste water sampling.
While the timing of those is not exact (wastewater leads) there have been no significant anomalies (ie: test positivity high, wastewater testing low) noted that I have seen. I always check multiple sources if I need to get a feel for what is happening.
I just linked you to the CDC, saying they started to estimate COVID case rates because tests reported are no longer reliable (for them). Not sure what you're arguing, but anyways believe what you want.
Last edited by FlBeachIguana; 02-13-2023 at 04:38 PM..
I just linked you to the CDC, saying they started to estimate COVID case rates because tests reported are no longer reliable (for them). Not sure what you're arguing, but anyways believe what you want.
Your link doesn't say what you are saying.
They've always done that, because data coming in from multiple locations all using different systems, general problems with people NOT reporting (never gone to doctor), asymptomatic cases, and a multitude of other factors go into the numbers.
They even do estimates retroactively, as your CDC link showed from 2/20 to 9/21.
A lot goes into adjust numbers with estimates for what has already happened (as they learn more), what is happening right now, and what the project will happen.
That has always been the case.
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We have lived and co-evolved with viruses. I bet if we could test you right now for every virus that causes illness in some people, you'd test + for some of them.
We don't know the long term health impacts of avoiding viruses - from allergies, autoimmune disorders, cancers.
And we don't know the impacts on economy, learning, and people's wellbeing, if they have to "stay home" if they have just a minor cold.
I think it's time to stop with this mindset we didn't have prior to 2020.
People were inconsiderate slobs before 2020, bringing every which sickness to work and school. I don't care for being sick whether its a cold, flu or other illness. I'm glad you pine for those days, but I don't. I'm sure some won't change, but some have and I consider that a good thing.
People were inconsiderate slobs before 2020, bringing every which sickness to work and school. I don't care for being sick whether its a cold, flu or other illness. I'm glad you pine for those days, but I don't. I'm sure some won't change, but some have and I consider that a good thing.
I don't pine for the days people are hypochondriacs. It's a not a healthy way to live. Viruses are beneficial for us.
I rarely get sick, but when I do, I love the experience. It gives me an excuse to rest a bit. The only time I sleep more than 6 hours is when I'm sick. I'm still puzzled how people can get so sick they cannot get out of bed. Never had that experience, in fact even at my sickest, I can still workout. Maybe it's years of training, even while sick, or maybe I've just never been very sick. Not sure.
Last edited by FlBeachIguana; 02-13-2023 at 08:03 PM..
They've always done that, because data coming in from multiple locations all using different systems, general problems with people NOT reporting (never gone to doctor), asymptomatic cases, and a multitude of other factors go into the numbers.
They even do estimates retroactively, as your CDC link showed from 2/20 to 9/21.
A lot goes into adjust numbers with estimates for what has already happened (as they learn more), what is happening right now, and what the project will happen.
That has always been the case.
Exactly. "CDC estimates that from February 2020–September 2021: 1 in 4 Covid cases were reported".
I don't pine for the days people are hypochondriacs. It's a not a healthy way to live. Viruses are beneficial for us.
I rarely get sick, but when I do, I love the experience. It gives me an excuse to rest a bit. The only time I sleep more than 6 hours is when I'm sick. I'm still puzzled how people can get so sick they cannot get out of bed...
They're not beneficial when death or a permanent decline in health status is the end game.
I rarely get sick too, but don't seem to get any extra sleep when ill. I suspect that the "so sick you can't get out of bed" is in many cases psychological.
Runny nose, sneezing, etc? No love here.
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