How long until oil peaks? (Howe: house, live, price)

[jimboburnsy]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNSQvh08OD0

Interesting video about haters. Haters of any character tend to be coming from a place of ignorance, regardless of how politically correct.

[bamba_boy]

[ I saw a Youtube video featuring the CEO of Noble Energy if I can recall, and even he was saying how there's a point it will get too expensive for what it's worth.]

Noble Energy has made recently a huge discovery that really points out how conventional gas deposits are often made in tough environments - here not tough physical environments but in this case in a tough political environment.

They discovered the first world-class gas reservoirs in Israel in deepwater sands in the Meditteranean. The tough part is that they now are blacklisted from exploring in many Islamic countries. I'd guess the reason such a small company could come in and swoop up such "low-hanging fruit" is that the Major's with their big projects in the Middle East and Muslim Indonesia were afraid to offend their national oil companies for consorting with Jews.

[Alphalogica]

We'll see where the oil and gas industry will be in 15-20 years. My bet is it will be long gone by then. (Easily within many of our lifetimes). Yes, I know there are lots of people on this forum who would disagree, but oh well. I'm bookmarking this thread.

Oil and gas is only ONE segment of the energy industry and other technologies (solar, wind, fuel cells, what have you) are approaching fast in efficiency & cost. Oil drilling technology is getting better, but it's not necessarily getting cheaper to slant drill and horizontally drill oil across seabeds. The increase in oil prices over the last 5-10 years reflect that. We're in the middle of a hard-core recession and oil is around $77 a barrel, just imagine what it could go up to, once the economy pulls back up. In some ways, high oil prices are great, because they higher they go, the more investment there will be in alternatives.

What will happen is that the cost of producing energy from oil/gas drilling vs. alternatives will intersect, and that will be the game changer.

[jimboburnsy]

Originally Posted by Alphalogica

We'll see where the oil and gas industry will be in 15-20 years. My bet is it will be long gone by then. (Easily within many of our lifetimes). Yes, I know there are lots of people on this forum who would disagree, but oh well. I'm bookmarking this thread.

Oil and gas is only ONE segment of the energy industry and other technologies (solar, wind, fuel cells, what have you) are approaching fast in efficiency & cost. Oil drilling technology is getting better, but it's not necessarily getting cheaper to slant drill and horizontally drill oil across seabeds. The increase in oil prices over the last 5-10 years reflect that. We're in the middle of a hard-core recession and oil is around $77 a barrel, just imagine what it could go up to, once the economy pulls back up. In some ways, high oil prices are great, because they higher they go, the more investment there will be in alternatives.

What will happen is that the cost of producing energy from oil/gas drilling vs. alternatives will intersect, and that will be the game changer.

You should read a book called "The Prize". Fantastic read. It is very thought provoking, although a tad dense at times, and forces the reader to realize that the vilification of oil & gas is nothing new (the common rhetoric against of modern day seems eerily familiar to the same in the 19th century) nor is the notion that oil & gas is on the precipice of dissolution. It seems that the Oil & Gas industry has been a fleeting one since its inception well over 100 years ago.

I'm bookmarking this thread also...

[chris_ut]

Originally Posted by Alphalogica

What will happen is that the cost of producing energy from oil/gas drilling vs. alternatives will intersect, and that will be the game changer.

Hopefully we are all still alive in 100 years or so when that happens.

[Alphalogica]

Originally Posted by jimboburnsy

You should read a book called "The Prize". Fantastic read. It is very thought provoking, although a tad dense at times, and forces the reader to realize that the vilification of oil & gas is nothing new (the common rhetoric against of modern day seems eerily familiar to the same in the 19th century) nor is the notion that oil & gas is on the precipice of dissolution. It seems that the Oil & Gas industry has been a fleeting one since its inception well over 100 years ago.

I'm bookmarking this thread also...

Let me make clear that being from Houston, a good portion of my family's wealth is from the energy industry. My dad programs oil tools for a major oil services firm in Houston. I have many friends who work in the oil and gas business along with their families as I'm from Sugar Land. I have nothing against the oil and gas business and I'm not vilifying it. I've just come to grips with the fact that something else will one day take its place in the same respect that MP3's and iTunes have replaced CD's and the Internet has replaced conventional news media.

[Alphalogica]

Originally Posted by chris_ut

Hopefully we are all still alive in 100 years or so when that happens.

It's sooner than you think. Intersolar: Most of U.S. Solar Market to Reach Grid Parity by 2015

There are many who argue that it could happen easily within this decade.

And Silicon Valley is working on the issue, too.


http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2010/03/01/story1.html?b=1267419600^2949141

[jimboburnsy]

Originally Posted by Alphalogica

It's sooner than you think. Intersolar: Most of U.S. Solar Market to Reach Grid Parity by 2015

There are many who argue that it could happen easily within this decade.

And Silicon Valley is working on the issue, too.


http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2010/03/01/story1.html?b=1267419600^2949141

I don't doubt that things will look extremely different in 2050 or that as crude oil becomes more scarce and more expensive that alternative energy becomes more competitive, what I doubt very much is that the oil and gas industry will no longer exist.

Grid parity in five years seems pretty far fetched for photovoltaic. We're still a long way off from necessary price points and battery technology. I can't really get my brain around that. Since my statistics class was at 8:10 AM Tuesday/Thursday, I missed a lot of it but I recall that predictive models always go exponential without some outside stimulus and reality always has outside stimulus and never goes exponential. However, my pea-brained view is that alternative methods of power generation is something to be welcomed from anyone's perspective (particularly career oilmen) since it has the effect of extending natural resource reserves, lowering commodity prices and perpetuating the viability of oil & gas.

By the way, the Edison light bulb was seen as a magic, Standard Oil killing bullet since Oil & Gas had originally grown into a monstrous industry through kerosene demand for lighting... Food for thought...

[EasilyAmused]

Grasshopper has much to learn.

[Alphalogica]

Originally Posted by jimboburnsy

I don't doubt that things will look extremely different in 2050 or that as crude oil becomes more scarce

That's 40 years from now. I bet it will be sooner than that. I also do agree with you that grid parity in 5 years is rather optimistic (but not totally impossible). However, technological growth in PV technology is rising steadily and overall it's day in the spotlight will be much sooner than most think.

Let me make clear one last time, I have absolutely nothing against the oil and gas industry. There will just be a day when something else will be cheaper and easier to use and everyone will move onto that. This would be akin to our transition to MP3's from CD's.