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Old 08-17-2015, 09:49 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Well Well Well. Welcome back. LOL! First Atlantic thread of the season? or is it second? lol. We'll see if it develops. Models have been on this since last week. 1 model has it going to Cat 2 status.




https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/633084810513252352
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Old 08-17-2015, 09:51 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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That's the type of path and latitude the U.S needs to watch. Who the heck knows if it will be even strong enough to survive the trip
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Old 08-17-2015, 01:05 PM
 
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Short term...a lot of dust/dry air nearby for getting those ensemble strengths...

Longer term...hhmmmmmmm
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Old 08-17-2015, 01:52 PM
 
Location: 30461
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I'm not expecting anything more than a tropical storm out of this. Wind sheer is expected to increase as it moves farther west.
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Old 08-18-2015, 08:42 AM
 
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Tropical Depression #4 has formed in the Atlantic. NHC will start issuing advisories at 11am EST today on it.
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Old 08-18-2015, 09:17 AM
 
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Tropical Depression 4 - 11am EST - 8-18-2015 info from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) attached. A little bullish on the strength aren't they?

Last edited by Psychoma; 07-04-2019 at 09:18 PM..
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Old 08-19-2015, 11:09 AM
 
Location: Norman, OK
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It's August 19 and there still haven't been any storms with winds >60 mph. Does anyone know how unusual that is?
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Old 08-19-2015, 12:21 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by srfoskey View Post
It's August 19 and there still haven't been any storms with winds >60 mph. Does anyone know how unusual that is?
Very. Should be close to record breaking. Will have to dig some to find it.
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Old 08-19-2015, 01:33 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by srfoskey View Post
It's August 19 and there still haven't been any storms with winds >60 mph. Does anyone know how unusual that is?
Not sure about on avg for >60MPH but for 74mph or greater avg first Atlantic occurrence is around Aug 10.

2015 has had 2 storms up to 60mph thus far.
2013 didn't get a storm abv 65 until September.
2011 didn't get abv 70mph until mid Aug.
2010 other then a quick start with Hurricane Alex, didn't get abv 60 until mid Aug.
2009 didn't get abv 60 until mid Aug.
2007 didn't get abv 60 until mid Aug.

But we've been in a slower pattern for several years it seems. This year credit to El Nino, wind shear, dust from the Saharan and timing I believe. Maybe Cambium will have some more insight/info/history on the matter...

Hurricane season always seems like a slow start....maybe it just takes too long for September to arrive!!
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Old 08-19-2015, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Well, we are only 3 weeks away from "peak" but usually after mid August is when we see an increase in systems. And we can still get them in October although not as common.

Don't think previous years was a Nino effect because we weren't in El Nino status and I'm sure there are some blogs and reports on that somewhere.




A way to judge how quiet is been is through ACE index..(total seasonal activity)

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

You can see we are back to the trend pre mid 1990s. Record low so far.

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