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if anyone thinks their long term trading record is that good you should be making a few million a year on wall street since 80% of those guys are failing at it.
short of that i am sceptical of anyones long term record here. like homeowners expenses most folks who dabble in individual issues have poor long term record keeping and tracking.
the only reason i know my long term (26 years) performance record is because i follow a newsletter that tracks their models. other wise i really would not have a clue 26 years later to compare by.
after 26 years of swapping funds for another it is near impossible to know how you did left to your own devices.
I think we've been living on borrowed time, probably since 1998 or 2000.
George Soros thought our super bubble would have popped in 98. The conventional wisdom would have been....our trade deficits would have reduced the dollar, driven up interest rates (can real interest rates be 1 or 2% if money is scarce/fixed, and we have trillion dollar deficits every year?? Interest rates are suppose to go up if you become a credit risk. And we're borrowing our heads off). Higher rates mean lower stock market, weaker economy, and the cycle goes down. And we go back to some kind of equilibrium.
What's the equilibrium with the FED not buying our bonds? Or with no government intervention?
The problem is THEY will always blame it on something else. The Fed is never going to admit they are the ultimate problem. When humpty dumpty stock and bond markets come tumbling down, you can be sure the propaganda campaign will be focused on blaming Europe, the Middle East, China and Russia, and the man on the moon.
The problem is THEY will always blame it on something else. The Fed is never going to admit they are the ultimate problem. When humpty dumpty stock and bond markets come tumbling down, you can be sure the propaganda campaign will be focused on blaming Europe, the Middle East, China and Russia, and the man on the moon.
U.S. stock markets typically go into decline over several months near the time of economic downturns (recessions) when GDP growth becomes negative.
Unless another one of these is looming on the horizon, the probability is that the bull market will continue - with the occasional market correction of course.
Let the DOOMERS wallow in their misery, 'Dreamer ... while we enjoy the sweeeeet fruits of this HISTORIC bull market...
Hate to break it to you, but stocks have been in a secular bear market since 2000. Check any dow to gold chart.
The dow is barely above the high in 2000, and you think there was no inflation in between? Your down, the dow is down.
Now we can debate if the market is now in a secular bull market at the beginning of one or not, but I venture to say that it is not, and won't be for a while till the conditions for the stock market become very bad.
Tpyically stock markets bottom when things are bad, when P/E ratio's are undervalued, when dividend yields are high, we have high P/E ratio's (in a bubble) and super low yields. These typically aren't symptoms of a secular bull market starting but a continued secular bear market.
It only took tripling or quadrupling our base money supply and having banks speculate to kick off this bull market
Those who feel threatened by a head and shoulders pattern should draw up a chart from Sep, 2012 to Nov, 2012.
The signs of disaster are clearly there to see - at least those who have a brain. I mean 3 tops! What more could you ask for?
Except that it never tanked. Well, at least not yet. The S&P has gone on to new heights and companies on to new profits. But we'll give it time; it's only been 8 months...
S&P 500 continues to inch closer to that 1,700 level.
Been HIGHLY enjoying the ride this year, to say the least
Let the doomers stay on the sidelines with their pants down...
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