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Facts aren't applying a magic 1-1.5% reduction in returns to create a compounding rate or cagr
I believe the magic is how traders/brokers/wealth managers really make their money "doing the movement of money" NOT by actually making good market predictions nor by actually making their account holders money. Watch the movie "Wolf of Wall Street".. although many things have changed, much hasn't... and the movie is good entertainment ;-)
I believe the magic is how traders/brokers/wealth managers really make their money "doing the movement of money" NOT by actually making good market predictions nor by actually making their account holders money. Watch the movie "Wolf of Wall Street".. although many things have changed, much hasn't... and the movie is good entertainment ;-)
Ive worked most of my career on wall st so I don't need to watch a movie to know what goes on. My post to jotucker was referencing his fabrication of performance data
So wait a minute, are you saying we shouldn't attempt to make predictions in investing? If so, why do you guys use your past performance reports to make "predictions" in investing? Do you have a crystal ball too lol?
This is what you said - Throughout this time, the Stock Market will be experiencing a major correction as it depreciates like hell
How do you know this? If the markets are in a downward spiral @ that time then interest rates can't be the only reason for it.
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Originally Posted by jotucker99
And whether or not the Markets will turn out the save average rate of return and compounding rate of return over the next 20 years like they did over the previous 20 years, is a wild guess at best. But you guys say that past performance predicts future performance, correct? Okay, so if you can use past reports for your Stock/Bond Market Funds, why can't I use it for Long Term CDs ?
Go ahead use whatever you want but it ain't going to change facts as the majority see it.
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Originally Posted by jotucker99
Put it like this, in trying to "stimulate" the economy, all the Fed has done is created two new bubbles which is the Stock Market Bubble and a Low Interest Rate Bubble. Both of which cannot continue forever but the Fed is operating like they can continue forever. Also understand, the Fed is OUT OF PLAYS. They have put just about everything on the table already that they can put on the table, so if we get into another Recession right now, there's literally nothing they can do "for the most part" as they have done everything.
The stock market "bubble" was necessary - in a way - to get us out of the mess we put ourselves into it. "Bubble"s are a natural occurring phenomenon in any part of our daily life (The great recession was a result of the "housing" bubble).
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Originally Posted by jotucker99
Read my response above in relation to history repeating itself, because you guys want to use that to support your theory on "invest in the Markets" but seemingly for other investments like Long Term CDs, one isn't supposed to use that lol? Talk about cherry-picking your data.
We shall invest in the markets as long as it makes sense to do so. If you actually put together a data-driven hypothesis without a confrontational style of forum participation probably lot of us will be willing to listen to your "stay away from market" theory. Can you?
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Originally Posted by jotucker99
Stocks are over-valued due to primarily to actions of the Fed.
If you think stocks are over valued then today is your day to "buy buy" like there's no tomorrow.
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Originally Posted by jotucker99
Think for a minute, Savers in the Bank and people who use SHORT TERM CDs, aren't getting anything right now in terms of interest. What are the "Financial Advisers" telling them all to do? That's right, they are telling them to get off the sideways and get in on this "awesome market we have"!
Remember the old adage - "Buyers Beware". Also, in this day of "robo advisors", why would they need a physical advisor.
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Originally Posted by jotucker99
No, no, I'm not against anybody doing whatever they do. The question is why are you guys against me for NOT getting into the Market? Remember, it was YOU GUYS that continued to state I would starve in retirement, be homeless on the street and living off EBT food stamps if I didn't invest in the S&P. You guys said that lol.
Speaking for myself only. I have a problem when you deride investing in the markets. Most of us have said that if you don't want to participate in the markets because you consider it witchcraft that's fine but don't try to conduct a "witch hunt" on people who want to do it.
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Originally Posted by jotucker99
Now that I have broken down the FACTS of the case, now you guys are quiet, very quiet.......
I'm sure the S&P 500 will out perform Long Term CDs lol, but who puts all of their money into the S&P 500 and doesn't diversify it into also including some level of Bonds MathJak? Come on, you are just digging for anything to come back with instead of getting down to the bottom line here.
Balanced Funds (which is what people will invest in) have only did 1% - 2% more in compounding rate of return over Long Term CDs over the 15 year period I showed you.
Which for the risk in those Funds, I think that's just not worth the hassle.
I'll raise my hand, I've put all my 401k contributions into an S&P500 index fund for the last 25 years even through the 2001 dotcom and 9/11 scenario and 2008 crisis and through this most recent dip and couldn't be happier; in other words 100% allocation to the SP500. There was no hassle and no market timing and no monitoring. Stick with your CDs and you'll likely not be as happy in 25 years.
what you have to remember is for almost 40 years we had falling interest rates and falling inflation . that means longer term cd and bond rates rates are always in front of the curve doing better in real return. but when inflation rises they will fall behind . the longer term rates on cd's can then hurt you more than 1 year cd's will .
you can see the trend in rates with the 30 year . except for a few bumps in the road both rates and inflation fell .
If you actually put together a data-driven hypothesis without a confrontational style of forum participation probably lot of us will be willing to listen to your "stay away from market" theory. Can you?
This question has been asked by virtually every poster he has argued with here, and that's nearly all of us. He has been called out by nearly everyone for his confrontational style yet he continue to charge on like a bull in a china shop.
So the obvious answer is no he is not capable of a rational debate without pissing everyone off. In all honesty I post on messageboards daily, been doing it for 15 years, and this guy is perhaps the worst poster I've come across. Problem is he posts so often it appears to be his part time job.
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Originally Posted by ThisDamnLife
Speaking for myself only. I have a problem when you deride investing in the markets. Most of us have said that if you don't want to participate in the markets because you consider it witchcraft that's fine but don't try to conduct a "witch hunt" on people who want to do it.
Again you are not alone. Many of us have told him to spare us the lecture, if you want to invest in CDs and avoid the market knock yourself out. But of course he just can't help trying to convince all of us that he is right and we are wrong even when every fact points in the other direction.
This question has been asked by virtually every poster he has argued with here, and that's nearly all of us. He has been called out by nearly everyone for his confrontational style yet he continue to charge on like a bull in a china shop.
So the obvious answer is no he is not capable of a rational debate without pissing everyone off. In all honesty I post on messageboards daily, been doing it for 15 years, and this guy is perhaps the worst poster I've come across. Problem is he posts so often it appears to be his part time job.
I agree. This forum is fast denigrating into a slander match with no real debates - and thereby helping those who are part of it.
I sometimes wonder if tucker is one of the CD admin's just posting here to raise traffic to the forum .
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveinMtAiry
Again you are not alone. Many of us have told him to spare us the lecture, if you want to invest in CDs and avoid the market knock yourself out. But of course he just can't help trying to convince all of us that he is right and we are wrong even when every fact points in the other direction.
I sometimes wonder if tucker is one of the CD admin's just posting here to raise traffic to the forum .
Man I love a good conspiracy theory. The investing forum has never had this much activity AND (all caps as a tribute to Jo T) never been this engaging. Riding them CD returns into the sunset like Slim Pickens on the atomic bomb.
Man I love a good conspiracy theory. The investing forum has never had this much activity AND (all caps as a tribute to Jo T) never been this engaging. Riding them CD returns into the sunset like Slim Pickens on the atomic bomb.
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