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So now, the reason I asked you guys to provide this 10 - 30 year projection, is because it's YOU GUYS that keep telling me that I buy the Vanguard S&P Fund and leave it in there for 15 - 30 years, and over that period of time I will have higher returns than any other passive investment like CDs, Bonds, etc.
So you guys keep talking about this 10 - 30 year period and you keep saying, over and over, that it will beat CDs and Bonds. I'm asking you, besides the past performance reports, what ELSE are you going with that gives you confidence in these returns?
We already established that nobody here can project investment returns over 10 - 30 years, so why in the hell do you guys keep saying buy/hold the S&P index for 10 - 30 years and you will beat other passive vehicles? HOW do you know that??
You have to use history to some degree, while the standard disclosure is that past performance isn't a guarantee of future results, history often repeats itself or often closely mirrors.
Over long term periods of time the risk premium and lack of fixed returns pushes equities into long term better returns. It's also a bit of common sense that equity ownership in a business vs a fixed low risk investment would outperform
In what sort of situation can you envision interest from loans exceeding profits from successful businesses in the long-term? That's the sort of world it would take for CDs and bonds to beat out indexed stock funds over long intervals.
Economic growth is ultimately what drive stock prices. The economy has been growing since we've started keeping records, and I have no particular reason to think it's going to be stopping any time soon. That's why I regard indexed stock funds as volatile over short terms, but a safe long-term investment (as safe, at least, as any other investment out there - none offer a 100% guarantee against loss).
Okay, but I'm still confused because it seems like you are ONLY going based on previous performance reports and using those previous reports to predict what the next 30 years is going to do.
I'm just staying out of the Stock Market. I don't understand it and quite frankly, I don't believe anybody understands it. You guys are throwing your money in there based on what the market has "always done" like that's a damn shoe-in for the next 30 years.
Also do you really think Stocks are tied to the growth of the Economy? Stocks have nothing to even do with the underlying companies you are investing in, the Stock prices go up or down based on what other traders are willing to buy them for.
I mean the entire area is just freaking confusing. And listen, I'm sorry okay? I worked too damn long and hard to just LOSE my money in paper value and be told, "Tucker 99 don't worry buddy, you got XYZ years left to make it up buddy, just smile buddy."
No, I can't do it. If I miss out on a potential higher return than so be it. I'll take my damn 3% passive return and continue to invest in MYSELF such as businesses I own, etc. to bring in more income, and combined get to my goals that way.
I'm not having any children and I'm not getting married, so all I have to take care of is myself anyway. ALL I have to do is like my boy Aaron Clarey says, is "don't F up" and I will be okay. Well, investing in a Stock Fund based on some extremely ambiguous sheep-like mentality that "they will always go up if you just hold them for 20 years" and potentially LOSING money, is not what I'm willing to do.
There's a reason they say only invest in Stocks what you can afford to lose, well guess what buddy? Tucker 99 can't afford to lose JACK! I busted my tail for every damn penny, I'm not losing NOTHING.
As far as this monster under my bed you guys refer to as Inflation, well listen, my expenses have been going DOWN over the previous 5 years. DOWN, not UP. I know how to budget, adjust, shop on wholesale, use Meijer Perks, etc. to get my costs down.
To say stock prices have nothing to do with the underlying companies is simply foolish. I think you just like going on these long winded rants and don't actually care what any of the responses are.
How ironic would it be if 5 years from now things went wrong in his business and it was toast .
It happened to the company i worked for after 25 years. Lost a major line and we were gone.
How ironic would it be if 5 years from now things went wrong in his business and it was toast .
It happened to the company i worked for after 25 years. Lost a major line and we were gone.
The difference is that I'm not saying that a business CAN'T fail. You guys are saying that if you hold a Stock Fund for 20 years you are pretty much all set.
Guys we are going to go back and forth forever on this. In summary:
The MathJak Team: You guys believe past performance can predict future performance, thus, if an approach is taken that includes diversification over all of the blue chip companies in the stock market with a focus on long term holding (20 - 45 years) then for the most part you should be "okay" in terms of out performing not just inflation and taxes, but beating other passive investments. You guys base this SOLELY on the previous performance reports.
Tucker99: Doesn't understand how 2016 - 2056 (the next 40 years) compares to the previous 40 years from 1976 - 2016. Doesn't understand why the S&P Fund is automatically going to go up because "it's always went up before". Tries to get information from City Data, as well as other Financial Advisers "in real life" and everybody looks at him with a Deer in the headlights look, then just repeats the same mantra of showing historical past performance charts. They show the charts to say that "it's always went up before, it will go up again, don't worry Tucker my buddy, throw your money in and ride the roller coaster."
If I want to ride a freaking roller coaster, I'll go to Cedar Point, their roller coasters are much more thrilling!
I'm taking my 3% passive return and going home. Vanguard allows you to invest in Brokered CDs which give you higher rates but understand you DO NOT want to break the term. Unlike regular CDs, you are screwed if you break a Brokered CD's term. These CDs are FDIC insured.
Also the Fed is going to increase rates, so pretty soon most Long Term CDs (10 year term or more) will be back over 3%, I'm estimating that they will be at 3.25% - 3.5% by the end of 2018. There's virtually no Inflation right now http://www.usinflationcalculator.com...flation-rates/ and I estimate that Inflation might go back to 1% per year IF THAT MUCH. But if you know how to manage your freaking expenses, you shouldn't be seeing across the board spending increases. Like I said, over the previous 5 years, my expenses have been going down.
That's my plan, call me stupid, call me conservative, call me whatever you want. I'm not investing in something (The Stock Market) that I absolutely DO NOT understand and literally none of the "experts" around me or on City Data freaking understand either.
Last edited by jotucker99; 08-12-2015 at 07:08 PM..
Okay, but I'm still confused because it seems like you are ONLY going based on previous performance reports and using those previous reports to predict what the next 30 years is going to do.
No, we're also basing it on the nature of stocks versus loans. Over the long term, successful businesses yield higher returns than loaning money does.
Quote:
I'm just staying out of the Stock Market. I don't understand it...
No, we're also basing it on the nature of stocks versus loans. Over the long term, successful businesses yield higher returns than loaning money does.
And that explains everything.
But Aredhel, you don't understand the Stock Market either man. I asked you, Low E, MathJak, ncole1, and the rest of your team, to give me some freaking information based on PROSPECTIVE occurrences, that show Stocks returning higher than other investments, over the next couple of decades.
You responded saying nobody knows what any investment will do over 10 - 30 years, which is correct! So then why in the hell do you guys keep saying Stocks will outperform other investments or perform well period on one hand, then on the next ADMIT you have no freaking clue what they are going to do?
Like I said, we are going to go back and forth all day. You can't answer my questions because you don't know. You guys invest in Stocks based SOLELY on reports of what's already happened, you have no freaking clue what's going to happen and you don't even make damn forecasts on what "might" happen.
You slap a portion of your retirement money in an S&P Fund, another portion in Fixed Income, and maybe another portion in something else (maybe Cash). And you call it a day.
I'm not comfortable doing that for the reasons I've stated.
Joytucker99, in your businesses when you ask for the advice of successful people in your field do you dispute their advice and are you this argumentative? Then in investing there are very successful people here on this board and you are argumentative and dismissive. I think you should just stay out of stocks and buy your bonds that you believe in. There's no convincing you. Get back to us in 33 years and I guarantee you that you would wish you had been 100% in SPYs. Hate to see you lose that opportunity but if you can't trust/have faith in experienced investors/mentors you're not going to be too successful in your active business or passive investing.
Joytucker99, in your businesses when you ask for the advice of successful people in your field do you dispute their advice and are you this argumentative? Then in investing there are very successful people here on this board and you are argumentative and dismissive. I think you should just stay out of stocks and buy your bonds that you believe in. There's no convincing you. Get back to us in 33 years and I guarantee you that you would wish you had been 100% in SPYs. Hate to see you lose that opportunity but if you can't trust/have faith in experienced investors/mentors you're not going to be too successful in your active business or passive investing.
Dude what is this babble? I asked them straight up questions and NONE of them answered my damn questions. What in the blue hell are you babbling about here?
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Originally Posted by ThisDamnLife
I wish tucker99 had spent half the time s/he's spent on typing those pages of responses on comprehending what other's have said here.
I restated what the HELL they said. Their strategy is buy/hold blue chip stocks in Funds like those offered from Vanguard FOREVER. That's their strategy, with some of them incorporating some fixed income funds and cash to spread some of their wealth around. I restated their strategy in CLEAR details.
I asked them simple questions ABOUT their strategy, so maybe I could CONSIDER IT, and they couldn't provide an answer for any DAMN question I had. Not ONE damn answer. The thread is right here in front of you, 11 pages, all you have to do is go through and freaking READ.
The low level of damn READING COMPREHENSION on this section of the City Data Forum is unbelievable.
At the end of the day, as I already stated, they are going SOLELY on past performance reports and hoping that the next 30 years for the S&P mimics the previous 30 years. Period. They have no prospective analysis, forecasts, trends, anything that would support why the S&P for the next 30 years would appreciate in value OTHER THAN the fact that it has over the previous 30 years.
I'm not doing any investments like that, period. Matter of fact, this is the last time I'm even discussing this with you guys because I'm started to get annoyed. You don't answer questions, you personal attack all day long, and you respond playing silly semantics games instead of directly answering someone's questions straight up.
You could have just answered my questions with the following, "Tucker99, you are asking questions that nobody knows. We invest in Stocks based on the fact that historical performance of Stocks has always outperformed other passive investments. We don't KNOW if they will continue doing this, but we are PREDICTING they will based solely on the fact that they always have."
That's it, end of discussion.
Last edited by jotucker99; 08-12-2015 at 10:44 PM..
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