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The market has lost all touch with reality. How much higher can it go? Maybe a bit.
My thoughts are how low can it go?
However, if you look at S&P500 historicals:
[1982-1999]: +343.7% with one down year 1990 of -3.9%, that's a 17 year virtually positive run!!
followed by a decline of -42.85% [2001-2002]
Contrast that with current:
[2009-2017]: +139.57% with no down years
decline??
In addition, we have a much better tax and business environment now. Someone tell me why is everyone saying the sky is falling? When you compare the two scenarios above I see much more gain. Infact I think Shiller P/E in 2000 was 41 and now it's 33. Just trying to justify why I read that one analyst says one should be "TERRIFIED" of Dow 25000
the years leading in to 1982 , 1966-1981 saw only about 5.67% cagr . when all was said and done ,once again the 30 year average was the normal range that every other 30 year period see ,within 2%.
take 1982-1999 and combine it with the 2000-2015 , guess what ? same average returns within 2%.
with the gains since 2008 what do you think has to happen to those gains over time ? you got it! . we will have below average market performance to once again get the 30 year average in to the same normal range .
Last edited by mathjak107; 01-09-2018 at 05:08 PM..
Well I, for one, appreciate this dicussion in that many of the posters here (who know lots more than I do) give their thoughts based on experience, not on political ideology.
Dave
the years leading in to 1982 , 1966-1981 saw only about 5.67% cagr . when all was said and done ,once again the 30 year average was the normal range that every other 30 year period see ,within 2%.
take 1982-1999 and combine it with the 2000-2015 , guess what ? same average returns within 2%.
with the gains since 2008 what do you think has to happen to those gains over time ? you got it! . we will have below average market performance to once again get the 30 year average in to the same normal range .
However, it would seem strange to me if we're already rapidly approaching a market top given that the stock market went virtually nowhere from March 2000 all the way to March 2013.
I think what is happening in this thread is people are looking at 2017 and getting afraid of heights. The reality is that 2017 's increase of 20% is the average return in a bull market.
"record high" and "peak" are not synonymous. Also,trying to forecast what the market will do for the next 15 years is a little silly. Markets look out 3-30 months max and what we are seeing is a continuation of a long bull market that is built on a pretty solid foundation. Yes, we have moved into more optimistic territory , but we are far from euphoria.
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