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1 year outcomes are no better than a coin toss .
one thing i have noticed is when times are bad people and investors tend to focus on getting by and surviving basically as they worry about themselves financially . when times are better they focus on geo-political things more so more and more these silly news events play a greater roll in the markets moves ,. there so no way of predicting anything in these times today ...
at least when markets are down the best values are around , when markets are high there are few values , so you stand a pretty good chance in a down year of being up next year . but that is not the case now .
so like driving at night , i can only see as far as the headlights go and everything else is unknown .
but when you see threads like this where those who avoided the markets are now getting in , i worry that the party is ending at midnight and this is 11pm .
Last edited by mathjak107; 01-06-2018 at 10:44 AM..
I went ahead and invested the $100k in VOO, put in my buy order this morning. Since 2010 i've followed people who said market was crashing imminently, missed out a lot of the market so i'm taking a different approach now.
I'm 43 so I still have time. I don't see any big triggers to cause a massive crash for at least the rest of 2018 barring a huge geopolitical event such as NoKo. But I think little Kim is not in a mood to launch an attack, it's a very small chance especially since he has accepted a peace talk with SoKo recently. The US economy has momentum and the lower tax rates and possible money coming back via repatriation resulting in increased earning or share buy backs can only be positive.
Strategy is to hold for a year then re-evaluate, i'm confident the year will end higher than today even if modestly. The only wildcard I see are the mid terms but that is a long way off in Nov. Infact, I think a Democrat majority win in November may crash the market imo because it will all but signify anti-business policies the Democrats are famous for.
i did very well under obama. cant complain about trump so far. im not worried about the mid terms. we will just see what happens.
I went ahead and invested the $100k in VOO, put in my buy order this morning. Since 2010 i've followed people who said market was crashing imminently, missed out a lot of the market so i'm taking a different approach now.
I'm 43 so I still have time. I don't see any big triggers to cause a massive crash for at least the rest of 2018 barring a huge geopolitical event such as NoKo. But I think little Kim is not in a mood to launch an attack, it's a very small chance especially since he has accepted a peace talk with SoKo recently. The US economy has momentum and the lower tax rates and possible money coming back via repatriation resulting in increased earning or share buy backs can only be positive.
Strategy is to hold for a year then re-evaluate, i'm confident the year will end higher than today even if modestly. The only wildcard I see are the mid terms but that is a long way off in Nov. Infact, I think a Democrat majority win in November may crash the market imo because it will all but signify anti-business policies the Democrats are famous for.
Honestly for this market... if it's above the 200 day moving average, buy it, own it, anytime... if it closes below it, sell it.
a non volatile market can be dangerous for the reasons i gave in a few threads . the less volatile the market the greater the leverage all these machines use . you know those machines that drop us a thousand points in minutes .
the more volatile the markets the more they stand to loose in dollars so they are all automated to reduce leverage .
once selling starts it feeds on itself . we are lucky we have not had anything yet trigger that selling spiral , but leverage is very very very high now . that can magnify any down drafts big time
They're younger. Much younger. And BMW is a trader, which is different than being a long term investor who doesn't want to or have to watch the market. One size does not fit all. Each person needs to decide what kind of investor they want to be, how much time they're willing to devote to it, and if they're willing to learn the technical side of trading.
volatility or non volatility are not predictors of where the market will go..Mathjack not sure why you keep clinging to that statement. Volatility will probably return one day. But when it does, it could easily be upside volatility that brings bigger returns.
Nor are high PE's...PE in December 2008 was 60...think that was a good or bad time to invest?
Age really shouldn't be the determining factor in asset allocation. A 60 year old in good health can easily be looking at a 20 year time horizon and if that is the case stocks have outperformed bonds 97% of the time.
I also think it's important to note that the long term return of ~10% on stocks the past 100+ years INCLUDES bear markets so to have a low equity % you better have a damn good reason to do so!
and to the OP--"holding for a year and then see what happens" lol....as someone else said a 1 year time horizon is a dangerous marker to decide what to do with an investment
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