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What if. I'm dealing in what we know. I hope they do, I want to see more EVs on the road. As it is now, the other companies are several years behind in technology regarding their manufacturing and batteries. It is very hard to get entrenched companies to retool in a radicle way, especially when the dealerships (their real customers) don't like EVs.
No other company have even ordered a gigapress yet. When they do, they will be in the back of the line waiting for Teslas to be built.
Seems the whole Tesla narrative is a bunch of "what ifs".
What's ironic is that people constantly talk about what legacy ICE makers were good at, but don't project that forward to what current and next generation electric vehicles production will be good at.
The BIG #1. Olden days: Creating great, efficient, powerful engines. EVs: Creating great efficient, powerful batteries.
Ford was great on engines, but they have no battery tech. Do you guys realize that? The most expensive, critical part of an EV and Ford has no tech. They will just be dependent on someone else to make them and hope they make enough and cheap enough to compete (good luck with that).
Ford will not be cost-competitive at scale anytime soon because they don't have the battery costs to be so. It really is that simple.
#2 Manufacturing efficiency. Ford is great. But have you been paying attention to what to Tesla is currently doing that is ahead of the field? They are massively casting the entire front and rear structures of the Model Y's. This has never been done before with vehicles!
Do you process the amount of cost and labor production this can bring? Do you think Ford is just going to pick this up too in a year or two? (Narrator: No)
These takes are what happens when you just listen to hand-waving and not the details of what actually matters. Ford can have plenty of cash to spend, but they have no clue what to spend it on. They can't just give 10 billion and say: build a more efficient battery than Tesla by 2023. It's not going to happen. It takes them too long. I mean, you realize you can google old Ford claims from a few years ago that they would have 20 ev models by 2022? LOL.
Maybe by 2026 Ford will make significant advancements.
Apparently you didn't hear that Ford and SK Innovation have formed a joint battery venture called BlueOvalSK to produce batteries at two different plants starting in early 2022 (second plant comes online in 2023). Pilot production is already underway. They have been working behind the scenes for a while (along with VW) on battery development with SK.
Your entire post is basically assumptions that Tesla will maintain their leadership indefinitely. You have some critical errors in your thesis.
1) Ford's battery development with SK has been underway for some time, hence the 2022 release date. Unlike Tesla, Ford holds their cards close to their chest for competitive reasons. They don't need to artificially pump the stock price.
2) Ford is not telling SK to "build me a battery." It is a joint venture, a partnership. Ford has 150 of its own engineers working at its Ion Park facility on EV battery tech including solid state batteries.
Tesla's much paraded 4860 battery, in development with Panasonic, is not yet in production, and knowing Tesla's history of overpromising and under-delivering it will probably see delays. Even if they are on time (late 2021? 2022? no one seems to know), Ford's new battery will be available in production vehicles early next year. That is why the stock has been on a tear the last couple days.
Ford stated at their investor day that they expect to reduce battery costs 40% by mid-decade ($100 kWh by 2025, and $80 kWh by 2030). I know that is just a projection, but I don't doubt that Ford / VW partnering with SK on battery production will achieve the scale they need to be profitable, especially with them targeting large volume segments such as the F-150.
Last edited by mustang84; 05-27-2021 at 11:57 AM..
Apparently you didn't hear that Ford and SK Innovation have formed a joint battery venture called BlueOvalSK to produce batteries at two different plants starting in early 2022 (second plant comes online in 2023). Pilot production is already underway. They have been working behind the scenes for a while (along with VW) on battery development with SK.
Your entire post is basically assumptions that Tesla will maintain their leadership indefinitely. You have some critical errors in your thesis.
1) Ford's battery development with SK has been underway for some time, hence the 2022 release date. Unlike Tesla, Ford holds their cards close to their chest for competitive reasons. They don't need to artificially pump the stock price.
2) Ford is not telling SK to "build me a battery." It is a joint venture, a partnership. Ford has 150 of its own engineers working at its Ion Park facility on EV battery tech including solid state batteries.
Tesla's much paraded 4860 battery, in development with Panasonic, is not yet in production, and knowing Tesla's history of overpromising and under-delivering it will probably see delays. Even if they are on time (late 2021? 2022? no one seems to know), Ford's new battery will be available in production vehicles early next year. That is why the stock has been on a tear the last couple days.
Ford stated at their investor day that they expect to reduce battery costs 40% by mid-decade ($100 kWh by 2025, and $80 kWh by 2030). I know that is just a projection, but I don't doubt that Ford / VW partnering with SK on battery production will achieve the scale they need to be profitable, especially with them targeting large volume segments such as the F-150.
Those are some assumptions on your part as well, to be fair. And, you say Tesla's valuation is artificially pumped up, but Ford would love to have Tesla's valuation
We can talk about Ford overpromising and under-delivering (of course, they have over-delivered in many instances, too), Ford still has a lot to prove when it comes to mass scale EV development.
I'm not saying that Ford won't rise to meet these challenges, but things are not as rosy for Ford just because some say they are.
Those are some assumptions on your part as well, to be fair. And, you say Tesla's valuation is artificially pumped up, but Ford would love to have Tesla's valuation
We can talk about Ford overpromising and under-delivering (of course, they have over-delivered in many instances, too), Ford still has a lot to prove when it comes to mass scale EV development.
I'm not saying that Ford won't rise to meet these challenges, but things are not as rosy for Ford just because some say they are.
Why would Ford want to be vastly overvalued with those type of expectations? Why would Elon tweet out "$420"?. These companies operate very differently in the public space. It seems obvious Tesla (and other high growth companies) rely on a great salesman to pump up interest. I would argue, there's too much interest which is setting up Tesla for lofty goals in may not meet.
It seems like all the Tesla bulls feel like it has some sort of unstoppable advantage in perpetuity throughout time.
The ID4 has TWICE as many electrical components as the Model Y. Each component uses power, so even with equal battery tech, the M Y will be much more battery efficient.
Why would Ford want to be vastly overvalued with those type of expectations? Why would Elon tweet out "$420"?. These companies operate very differently in the public space. It seems obvious Tesla (and other high growth companies) rely on a great salesman to pump up interest. I would argue, there's too much interest which is setting up Tesla for lofty goals in may not meet.
It seems like all the Tesla bulls feel like it has some sort of unstoppable advantage in perpetuity throughout time.
My point was assuming that Ford would be able to meet such expectations, whether we are talking about technical advances, future strong growth estimates, etc. Tesla as a stock is certainly "overvalued," but investors don't seem to care, and that has aided Tesla in its share offering efforts to raise money for various capital projects and the such.
While I'm under no illusion about Tesla continuing to have such insane stock valuation/growth forever, I am certainly glad that I didn't listen to the bears who were telling people to dump the stock years ago.
Apparently you didn't hear that Ford and SK Innovation have formed a joint battery venture called BlueOvalSK to produce batteries at two different plants starting in early 2022 (second plant comes online in 2023). Pilot production is already underway. They have been working behind the scenes for a while (along with VW) on battery development with SK.
Your entire post is basically assumptions that Tesla will maintain their leadership indefinitely. You have some critical errors in your thesis.
1) Ford's battery development with SK has been underway for some time, hence the 2022 release date. Unlike Tesla, Ford holds their cards close to their chest for competitive reasons. They don't need to artificially pump the stock price.
2) Ford is not telling SK to "build me a battery." It is a joint venture, a partnership. Ford has 150 of its own engineers working at its Ion Park facility on EV battery tech including solid state batteries.
Tesla's much paraded 4860 battery, in development with Panasonic, is not yet in production, and knowing Tesla's history of overpromising and under-delivering it will probably see delays. Even if they are on time (late 2021? 2022? no one seems to know), Ford's new battery will be available in production vehicles early next year. That is why the stock has been on a tear the last couple days.
Ford stated at their investor day that they expect to reduce battery costs 40% by mid-decade ($100 kWh by 2025, and $80 kWh by 2030). I know that is just a projection, but I don't doubt that Ford / VW partnering with SK on battery production will achieve the scale they need to be profitable, especially with them targeting large volume segments such as the F-150.
Isn’t it amazing how the Tesla fans know what the confidential r&d departments have underway since they confidently state everyone is years upon years or a “decade” behind?
And like I pointed out earlier, even something as complicated and secretive as nuclear weapons wasn’t able to maintain a lead for a decade, yet somehow Tesla will just dazzle the world and no one will be able to copy or break it down and innovate further.
What does “just fine” actually mean? The thing is Tesla’s total sales are still small in comparison and therefore “just fine” isn’t good enough IMO.
I believe this to be true and I believe it will cost Tesla some cybertruck sales if not for Tesla’s inability to hit targets for delivery times/actual manufacturing won’t deliver
Do you already know the margin on the lightning? Curious if you are aware if Tesla has started to account for R&D in model profitability like the majors or not yet, because that hadn’t been their standard practice
What I know is that without a doubt the majors are better at manufacturing vehicles in far greater numbers than Tesla and there is no disputing it
Ford doesn’t have to do EV as well as Tesla though and maybe that is a point you are missing
Tesla advancing processes is great and they have to do and execute well. Why? They are severely behind on manufacturing capability. If they got orders for 5mm it’s somewhat meaningless
Can is a key word not is or does. Maybe let it sink in because Tesla and specifically Elon promise a lot of things that are either severely delayed, don’t happen or don’t come in nearly as promised
You might not want to go down the path of claims that never met the mark because that’s classic Tesla space
This reads all over the place. Tell me this:
How is Ford going to beat Tesla in battery tech and cost?
How is Ford "beating" Tesla in manufacturing capability of EVs?
The only company in the world who not only ordered but is using machines to create two, not dozens of body parts out of a material they invented.
The IDRA GigaPress is producing!
Tesla model Y front castings piled up in multiple stacks, then get loaded onto flatbeds, and the flatbeds departing.
GigaAustin is making Texas tough cars & trucks.
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