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Yeah this rally has been very nice and pretty textbook. There is a case to be made this is a new bull market. If I had to bet, I'd say we will still have one more test or undercut for new lows, but the structure of this rally is what bottoms look like though. I'm 21.57% up in trading account and 11.62% up in "passive" account.
Damn. I’ve missed making more money than I thought!
Oh well, such is life. Just haven’t had the time. I’m back though!
Damn. I’ve missed making more money than I thought!
Oh well, such is life. Just haven’t had the time. I’m back though!
We are likely to test the 200-day, which isn’t too far off (3.5% for QQQ about). However, we are still in the context of a bear market until we reclaim the 200-day and confirm it becomes support. This rally has been pretty textbook though. Notice the accumulation / VCP at the bottom compared to the March rally. This could be the new bull market not ruling that out. Also, if you follow stage analysis, we now closed above the 30-week average.
Technically, it's not the 200-day that marks a bear or bull market, but a drop or gain of 20% of a broad market index, so it can't be judged based on the QQQ. The Nasdaq composite has met the criteria, but the S&P 500 nor the Dow have.
And it's great to see the QQQ has broached the 150-day/30-week average!
Technically, it's not the 200-day that marks a bear or bull market, but a drop or gain of 20% of a broad market index, so it can't be judged based on the QQQ. The Nasdaq composite has met the criteria, but the S&P 500 nor the Dow have.
And it's great to see the QQQ has broached the 150-day/30-week average!
It doesn't mark a bear or bull market, but everything with trading is about stacking probabilities. We won't know for certain whether the new bull market started in June or not until after the fact. However, being under the long-term trend (200-day) you still have to have your guard up. It doesn't mean you can't be 100% invested, just be more quick to protect profits.
Yep! A bit of a consolidation period right now would be very healthy for the market. There's always a lot of pressure around the 200-day, from much earlier buyers looking to "get out" to break even, as well as recent buyers who want to take their gains. It'll be good to see if the 150-day can hold. If the 150-day can hold, this may tell us that institutions are still buying. And Apple seems to be a key indicator for this market.
Appreciate the understanding. Like the call. Followed with 1000 at 18.115
This rally has been bought pretty aggressively, so there is a decent chance we take out the recent high and get stopped out, but a 3-4% technical stop on a 3x leveraged ETF is good risk/reward in my opinion.
Add* Just got home. QQQ actually is looking good with a potential bounce off the 10-day. If this is a lockout rally, that's all it might pullback. SPY is still floating between the resistance and the 10-day though. I'm going to raise half my stop to today's low.
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