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This rally has been bought pretty aggressively, so there is a decent chance we take out the recent high and get stopped out, but a 3-4% technical stop on a 3x leveraged ETF is good risk/reward in my opinion.
Add* Just got home. QQQ actually is looking good with a potential bounce off the 10-day. If this is a lockout rally, that's all it might pullback. SPY is still floating between the resistance and the 10-day though. I'm going to raise half my stop to today's low.
I got stopped out very end of day....which is fine. For $180 or so I confirmed how to place these trades correctly....finally. Gotta pay the tuition, right?
I wouldn't say I'm bearish right now, but I am on edge. I'm a tad concerned that the increases will be too much for the rest of the world, and we could lose a lot of international trade which will eventually flow to us. However, my main fear stems from China, but started in trying to understand why the bond markets were inverting their yield curve again.... JPOW isn't the biggest seller (redeemer) of bonds at the moment. China is. Weren't they also complaining to JPOW to not raise rates to fast? China Treasury holdings have been dropping for 9 straight months. That's a bit unsettling.
I've got two hypothesis on why:
1. This real estate collapse is not contained and is masking a much bigger pit than we realize and it may set off a panic in the banking system.
2. China is preparing for war.
Either one could cause more disruption. It would not be unheard of for #1 to be the real culprit and #2 becomes the acceptable answer. ComChina having just thrashed her domestic techs into compliance and now controlling even when her citizens leave their homes while practicing embargo moves....while owning several ports around the world in their Belt and whatever plan.
Likely, not a dignified answer, but a long way of saying....I'm just on edge at the moment and I'm not sure if it's anything real or not. I think I'm going to accumulate a bit of gold tomorrow.
I got stopped out very end of day....which is fine. For $180 or so I confirmed how to place these trades correctly....finally. Gotta pay the tuition, right?
I wouldn't say I'm bearish right now, but I am on edge. I'm a tad concerned that the increases will be too much for the rest of the world, and we could lose a lot of international trade which will eventually flow to us. However, my main fear stems from China, but started in trying to understand why the bond markets were inverting their yield curve again.... JPOW isn't the biggest seller (redeemer) of bonds at the moment. China is. Weren't they also complaining to JPOW to not raise rates to fast? China Treasury holdings have been dropping for 9 straight months. That's a bit unsettling.
I've got two hypothesis on why:
1. This real estate collapse is not contained and is masking a much bigger pit than we realize and it may set off a panic in the banking system.
2. China is preparing for war.
Either one could cause more disruption. It would not be unheard of for #1 to be the real culprit and #2 becomes the acceptable answer. ComChina having just thrashed her domestic techs into compliance and now controlling even when her citizens leave their homes while practicing embargo moves....while owning several ports around the world in their Belt and whatever plan.
Likely, not a dignified answer, but a long way of saying....I'm just on edge at the moment and I'm not sure if it's anything real or not. I think I'm going to accumulate a bit of gold tomorrow.
Breakdown happening now. There are a lot of worries on the horizon, but the market is a forward leading indicator meaning it usually tops when the best news is out and bottoms when the worst news is out. I still view this in the context of a bear market rally because the long-term trend is still down (200-day) and we are still under it as well. However, this rally has been very constructive, so it wouldn't surprise me to see us go higher after a pullback. I added SQQQ today as well as a small position in UVXY.
if you think China may go to war,then look for signs -They are not bidding in our weekly treasury auctions.
They start stockpiling everything in sight-rice,soybeans,wheat,iron,copper,aluminium,crude oil,sunflower oil,peanut oil/
Perfect timing lewdog.....Friday august 19th....pretty much down since then....
FDX just tumbled almost 23% today alone....
I noticed that this year that stocks get punished severly on any negative news,
like NFLX did earlier this year...stocks get pummeled.
Very tough for "buy and holders" to stomach, feeling like bag holders.
Hindsight 20/20 ...I should have went to 100% cash on monday January 3rd 2022,
the market has been a sh*tshow since.
If FDX is slowing down,it means commerce is slowing down.
Meta (or FB) is laying off janitors??3 instead of 5 per building?
Makes you wonder,if they have to cut back on janitor,who else are they laying off?
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Gotta pay the tuition, right?
