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The Dow was at 9600 Nov 4, not the 5th. I made my purchases late in the day on Nov 5 when the Dow was at 9100, but after the market closed (I live on the west coast) so, the purchases actually occured on the 6th when the Dow closed at 8700. I've been buying as much as I can on the dips ever since and continue to do so.
Did I buy too early? Sure ... which is why I continue to buy on the dips to lower my basis.
You, announced your prediction on Nov 19th that the Dow would go to 5,000 if it broke 7800. On that same day the Dow closed at 7900. By the 20th it went to 7500 but then it rallied up to 8000 by the 21st. It hasn't returned to the 7000's since then and hasn't gotten anywhere near 5K, that's for sure.
Obviously your prediction was made in the current context of where the market was at that time ... which was 7900. But since it didn't prove accurate now you're saying it will get to 5K next year.
I'm sure if that doesn't work out (and it won't) you'll be saying the Dow will get to 5K ten years from now. No matter ... I'm more than willing to wait six months when you'll look even more foolish then.
There you go again!
The market opened on November 5th at 9,616.60, you made your buy signal before the market opened that day, at 7:30 am Central Time.
You said earlier today:
Starting to buy at 9K
Now you say you bought at 8,700. Whatever make you feel better, since you are always right! I get my fill in seconds, yours takes 24 hours?
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Originally Posted by sheri257
Obviously your prediction was made in the current context of where the market was at that time ... which was 7900
No, not at all. So you make up some time limit in your mind and therefore decide I am wrong?
At the moment my business, but if I had extra cash above and beyond that I would likely put it in other business as an active member.
You're so noble.
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
I wouldn't touch ATOIX, municipals are likely to start to default.
I'll let ya know.
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
I would just be repeating others. Many have done research and found that news does not drive the market. There will be a piece of news and the market does something people assume its causally correlated, but when you survey investors you find that they usually aren't acting on the news. I know Robert Shiller has done studies on this, I forgot off hand who else has.
Survey investors? I'll read up on Robert Shiller.
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
Going forward equities are going to be about dividends not capital gains....as they were before the gigantic ponzi scheme.
You'd have to hope they gain enough to beat each ex-div though, wouldn't you? Otherwise dividend investing is a good way to break even.
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
In order to move forward the economy will need to flush this crap out. Over the last couple of years you could make money as a day trader taking advantage of the volatility, but I think even this is coming to an end very shortly. The day traders themselves will eat their own lunch...they will become a stabilizing force. The market is ironic like that...
Maybe, maybe not. I think there'll be opportunities to trade ETFs and make a little money. I haven't really been an active trader until a few months ago and I could take it or leave it. While it's profitable, I'll take it.
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
The most obvious is a decline in your entitlements (in your case, your investment accounts)
Wow, brokerage accounts and 401Ks are now entitlements?? I'll let you know when my various accounts decline.
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
but there are other ways this can occur (ahem...unemployment).
Woooowww, a Holly Jolly Christmas to you too! Hey, I'm a single guy who stays out of trouble, works 60+ hours per week, has zero debt, has extremely strict and tight budget discipline, and saves over 60% of his income in income-producing conservative investments. And I happen to make some day trades on the side here and there for some extra money while the market is crazy. Obviously you're old-fashioned and have deep-seated disdain for careers that don't produce tangible widgets. There is a chance (30%) I'll lose my job, but I don't think I'd be alone. Is everyone being laid off guilty of "pseudo-wealth?" Anyway, I'd be fine for two+ years, four if I stay in the upstairs part of my parents' house, fifteen years if I also use up my 401K. Not worried.
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
What will happen to stocks if people 30 and under stop putting money in them?
I don't know, people 31 and over will then comprise the market? Works for me.
I haven't really been an active trader until a few months ago and I could take it or leave it. While it's profitable, I'll take it.
The problem is that by the time you realize its not profitable you'll likely have lost everything you gained.... Gamblers don't know when to walk away...
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Originally Posted by Nepenthe
Wow, brokerage accounts and 401Ks are now entitlements?? I'll let you know when my various accounts decline.
A 401(k) is a particular type of account with tax benefits. There is nothing good or bad about it, outside perhaps its ability to distort markets by creating particular incentives. Obviously, I'm not referring the account structures themselves (and hence IRS codes), but rather the gains made in the said accounts. You can't take more than you produce without someone else producing more than they take, but as it stands that is exactly what will happen with the 40+ (perhaps more like 45+) group. The markets will strip this wealth clean by a variety of mechanism, the most obvious of which we are seeing right now - declines in real estate and equities. But that are many other things that are likely to happen, like adjustments (downward) to pensions, lower wages etc etc.
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Originally Posted by Nepenthe
Woooowww, a Holly Jolly Christmas to you too! Hey, I'm a single guy who stays out of trouble, works 60+ hours per week, has zero debt, has extremely strict and tight budget discipline, and saves over 60% of his income in income-producing conservative investments.
None of this really matters. You're likely to get burned by your choice in careers, there is a rather large supply of so called "thought-workers". The wages are going to collapse going forward... So this is most likely how you'll be effected. Then again, maybe you're great at what you do and you'll fare fine. Only time will tell.
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Originally Posted by Nepenthe
Obviously you're old-fashioned and have deep-seated disdain for careers that don't produce tangible widgets.
No, I have a deep-seated disdain for people that leech off the productivity of others. The economy is far more than the manufacturing of widgets. I have equal respect for engineerings, research scientists, programmers, system admins, doctors, nurses etc etc. Where as I'd gladly caste under the bus the majority of bankers, executives, MBA's etc etc.
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Originally Posted by Nepenthe
I don't know, people 31 and over will then comprise the market? Works for me.
Ponzi schemes collapse when new suckers aren't to be found.....
You can't take more than you produce without someone else producing more than they take, but as it stands that is exactly what will happen with the 40+ (perhaps more like 45+) group. The markets will strip this wealth clean by a variety of mechanism, the most obvious of which we are seeing right now - declines in real estate and equities.
So the market has been wrong for years, decades, and suddenly now it's all going to be right and snap back to "the way things should be" and nobody will be able to earn any money any other way than just what they strictly make from their jobs...
It sounds like you believe when somebody makes capital gains in an investment (i.e. income that didn't directly come from their own blood, sweat, and tears), that it's always, as a rule, at the expense of somebody else. That earning money this way means somebody else is being screwed over, being made to suffer. That it's therefore unethical and immoral. Wow.
None of this really matters. You're likely to get burned by your choice in careers, there is a rather large supply of so called "thought-workers". The wages are going to collapse going forward... So this is most likely how you'll be affected.
"Thought-workers." That's nice. There's a rather large supply of uneducated line workers as well. Currently, there's a large supply of workers for a wide variety of industries. There's probably a large supply of people doing whatever it is you do too.
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
Ponzi schemes collapse when new suckers aren't to be found.....
And producers of goods don't do so well when people don't want to buy their crap anymore.
So the market has been wrong for years, decades, and suddenly now it's all going to be right and snap back to "the way things should be" and nobody will be able to earn any money any other way than just what they strictly make from their jobs...
The market wasn't "wrong", it was a bubble. The bubble started nearly 2 decades ago.
You keep pretending that there are only two ways to make money 1.) a job, 2.) passive investments. This is a false dichotomy.
Also, just to note when I talk about gains in equities I'm referring to real gains. The markets historically have done a decent (although imperfect) job of keeping up with inflation.
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Originally Posted by Nepenthe
That earning money this way means somebody else is being screwed over, being made to suffer. That it's therefore unethical and immoral. Wow.
This is pretty much what happens, I'm not sure what is so hard to understand about it either. You can't get something for nothing.
Can an economy function where everyone makes money via capital gains from reselling some asset to each other at ever increasing prices? No. Why not?
Could you link to web pages that don't look like vomit and make sense?
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Originally Posted by Nepenthe
"Thought-workers." That's nice. There's a rather large supply of uneducated line workers as well. Currently, there's a large supply of workers for a wide variety of industries.
Okay, the line workers and the "thought workers" can wait in the unemployment line together. Not every industry is over supplied with labor, there is a decent shortage in skilled programmers, mathematics, scientists, engineers, high skill manufacturing etc.
There is an oversupply in low-skill manufacturing/construction, paper pusher labor (bankers, MBA's etc), investment, real estate etc.
The education system in the US sucks as a result too many people can't do much than low-skill labor, as a result there are too many of them.
In terms of people that went to college there have been two problems
- Too many people went into the fields that were "hot" at the time, you know things like finance, MBA's, law degrees etc. Now this labor market is going to be over-supplied for a long time. Doesn't help that this part of the economy is contracting like mad.
- Too many people went to school to study whatever the hell they wanted to do without regard what they'd do after school.
You keep pretending that there are only two ways to make money 1.) a job, 2.) passive investments. This is a false dichotomy.
*I* keep pretending??
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
Also, just to note when I talk about gains in equities I'm referring to real gains. The markets historically have done a decent (although imperfect) job of keeping up with inflation.
I'm not even sure what you're talking about here. Real gains are waste and a scheme that hurts other people but just keeping up with inflation is cool?
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
This is pretty much what happens, I'm not sure what is so hard to understand about it either. You can't get something for nothing.
Shrug. We're diametrically opposed. You think investing and making gains in investments is unethical and also hurts other people as some sort of mathematical certainty. I'll never agree. 'Nuff said.
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
Could you link to web pages that don't look like vomit and make sense?
Looks fine to me. I've read it several times over the past five years. Makes great sense. It might be lost on you, so don't worry about it.
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
Okay, the line workers and the "thought workers" can wait in the unemployment line together. Not every industry is over supplied with labor, there is a decent shortage in skilled programmers, mathematics, scientists, engineers, high skill manufacturing etc.
There is no shortage of scientists, there's a glut of scientists. I seriously considered going back to grad school to get on a track become a scientist (interests: neuropsychopharmacology, nutrition science, agrophysics, animal behavior, phylogenetics, and astronomy/cosmology) (and haven't completely abandoned the idea although obviously the economic problems have put it on the back burner). Science is one of my hobbies -- I still read New Scientist cover to cover every week, I devour science books, I'm in a science club, etc. What I found when I started digging in is that there are more scientists than there are science careers, and in some fields the "failure rate" (the percentage of those educated in that field who end up taking jobs completely unrelated to that field) is very high. It became clear that this could be a self-indulgent career move that could cost me dearly. If circumstances change, perhaps I'll reconsider. We'll see how the latter years of Obama's first term play out...
At any rate, I think there'll be a surplus of a strikingly vast variety of workers and specialists up ahead.
I'm not even sure what you're talking about here. Real gains are waste and a scheme that hurts other people but just keeping up with inflation is cool?
Equities can make you money in two ways 1.) dividends, 2.) capital gains. The capital gains historically run with inflation.
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Originally Posted by Nepenthe
I'll never agree. 'Nuff said.
Sure, but until you can explain how you can get something from nothing your disagreement means little. If you are consuming more than you produce, you are taking from others productivity. Gambling on the stock market produces nothing...
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Originally Posted by Nepenthe
Looks fine to me. I've read it several times over the past five years. Makes great sense. It might be lost on you, so don't worry about it.
Thats too bad, to me it sounded like a "America is so great" red neck talking about things he knows nothing about (intellectual history). But, "to each his own" I suppose...
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Originally Posted by Nepenthe
There is no shortage of scientists, there's a glut of scientists. I seriously considered going back to grad school to get on a track become a scientist (interests: neuropsychopharmacology, nutrition science, agrophysics, animal behavior, phylogenetics, and astronomy/cosmology)
There is indeed a shortage of scientists, and by that I mean people that have the ability to do research etc, not pontificate about the subject. If there was no shortage you're going to have trouble explaining the large number of foreign scientists in this country..... Why are around half of science professors foreign born? Because...ahem...there isn't enough talent in the US to satisfy the needs within the country.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
What I found when I started digging in is that there are more scientists than there are science careers, and in some fields the "failure rate" (the percentage of those educated in that field who end up taking jobs completely unrelated to that field) is very high.
I'm not talking about B-average sally that decided to major in biology at the local state school. There is a shortage of good scientists that know how to research. Looking at failure rates says little because degrees don't correlate well with ability/knowledge in this country. A monkey can get pretty much get a BS in science at your typical public university.
Of course there are some areas of science that aren't economical viable outside of academia (incidentally, many that you mentioned), but I'm not talking about those.
Equities can make you money in two ways 1.) dividends, 2.) capital gains. The capital gains historically run with inflation.
You don't make any money with dividends unless the stock price increases. Ex-dividend reduces the stock price with each dividend. Also, why would someone invest in an equity market that they expect to merely keep up with inflation in the long run? That would occupy an unfavorable position on a risk/reward chart.
I'm not talking about B-average sally that decided to major in biology at the local state school.
Neither am I.
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
There is a shortage of good scientists that know how to research.
Oh, "good" scientists. Like those who studied mathematics and theoretical computer science. Got it.
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Originally Posted by Humanoid
Of course there are some areas of science that aren't economical viable outside of academia (incidentally, many that you mentioned)
Thanks, it's been a real pleasure, oh perfect one.
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I'll let ya know.
