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Your other two predictions, back on November 5th, you called the bottom of the market. WRONG.
With the way you guys nitpick, I probably should have been more clear like I was on this thread. To me, the bottom was always somewhere between 8-9K, as I stated on this thread five weeks ago.
Sure ... the market dropped into the 7000's for three days but, otherwise, it's been holding between 8-9K.
It certainly hasn't been plummeting down to 5,000 ... which is what you believe. If that was gonna happen, it would have happened back in October and November when volatility was much, much higher. Now the volatility indexes are way down.
But 5,000 next year? That's just not gonna happen. The last time the Dow was 5,000 was back in 1996 ... 12 years ago.
Even in 2002 the Dow didn't get below 7,500 ... which is why it didn't stay there for more than a couple of days this time. It's just too much of a bargain and buyers couldn't resist.
With the way you guys nitpick, I probably should have been more clear like I was on this thread. To me, the bottom was always somewhere between 8-9K, as I stated on this thread five weeks ago.
Sure ... the market dropped into the 7000's for three days but, otherwise, it's been holding between 8-9K.
It certainly hasn't been plummeting down to 5,000 ... which is what you believe. If that was gonna happen, it would have happened back in October and November when volatility was much, much higher. Now the volatility indexes are way down.
But 5,000 next year? That's just not gonna happen. The last time the Dow was 5,000 was back in 1996 ... 12 years ago.
Even in 2002 the Dow didn't get below 7,500 ... which is why it didn't stay there for more than a couple of days this time. It's just too much of a bargain and buyers couldn't resist.
You really crack me up! You look at stocks like you are buying clothes at the mall. Bargains that buyers cannot resist? You are too funny!
You jumped in too early and are now trying to rationalize a bad move. Must I keep reminding you:
11-05-2008, 07:21 AM
sheri257
Going Back Into Stocks ...
After being out of the market since August, 2007 ... I'm taking the plunge back into the market today.
I think this is the bottom.
and
11-17-2008, 01:39 PM
sheri257
Now's The Time to Get Back Into Stocks ...
I'm calling it ... buy stocks now when they're nice and cheap. The market is about to turn.
I stand by my 5,000 call. There is very little support from here to 5,000. Look at a chart. We broke the October lows, very significant. It is a matter of time until we break the November lows. We are in a rising wedge pattern of a smaller and smaller trading range. Usually but not always the market breaks to the downside:
1. We are in a Bear Market, the long term trend is down.
2. We broke the October lows.
3. Currently in a "Rising Wedge" which usually trends down.
I use tried and true methodology to determine where I believe the stock market is headed. I have done this successfully for 25 years. I am not always right but I am most of the time.
You jumped prematurely back into stocks when the market rallied from its October lows to 9,600. You felt the market was about to break to the upside past 10,000 and you did not want to miss that move. You did it on a "hunch" with nothing behind it. You made what is so far a bad trade, you are losing money. If the market in November had rallied past the 20% mark it would have signaled a break of the bear market. It did not, that was one of the reasons I felt and still feel we are going lower.
Let's see what you are made of. I bet you will disappear when the market breaks to the downside. I will keep posting no matter what happens.
Oh, and try to be a little more civil. The reason you get so much flack here is your "holier than thou" condescending attitude, you are losing money and acting like you are correct and everyone else is wrong. Try showing some humility!
The market is in a short-term rising channel within an intermediate-term descending channel.
The short-term rising channel is constructed by drawing parallel trendlines connecting the highs and low since November 14. It doesn't appear to be a bearish rising wedge since the trendlines aren't converging.
The larger channel is constructed by connecting the highs and lows since the gap down on October 6 from that day's high at 1075 and the low several days later at 840. The two trendlines are clearly parallel.
The chart in the following article is fairly close to what I see. He has the two channels somewhat skewed to show the lines converging as they would in a wedge pattern.
You jumped in too early and are now trying to rationalize a bad move. Must I keep reminding you:
11-05-2008, 07:21 AM sheri257
Going Back Into Stocks ... After being out of the market since August, 2007 ... I'm taking the plunge back into the market today.
I think this is the bottom.
and
11-17-2008, 01:39 PM sheri257
Now's The Time to Get Back Into Stocks ... I'm calling it ... buy stocks now when they're nice and cheap. The market is about to turn.
I stand by my 5,000 call.
You conveniently left out the last part of November 17 ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheri257
The Dow will bounce between 8-9K for awhile but six months from now the Dow will be over 10K or more.
All's fair in quotes but, don't exclude the 8-9K call either. You selectively edited that one out just for the sake of boosting your argument. Kind of cheesy ... like adding a convenient time frame after the 5K call proved to be a dud.
Yeah, it would have been better to buy everything at 7,500 but, I know I can't predict those fluctuations so, my strategy is to always buy on the dips if the market goes down ... which, I did and continue to do so.
As far as bad moves what's better? Starting to buy at 9K and lowering my basis to 8500 ... which is more or less where the market is now or ...
Shorting the market at 5K ... which never happened. I think the answer is obvious.
The 8~9k is relatively banal....I really don't know why this keeps getting mentioned. That was the range the market had been in for about a month before "the prediction" was made.
Its really odd to be smug about a petty prediction and losing money.
1) Why are you so extremely confident that your prediction is correct? None of us can predict the future. There is *always* a risk in investing no matter what it is, real estate, stock market, business, heck even MMFs today.
2) Since you are a nurse and people are begging you to work, how come you couldn't just use your paychecks/OT pay and savings for playing with the stock market?
3) How can you ignore what's happened during the Great Depression where the markets dropped 89%? While it may not happen this time around, it IS a possibility.
Isn't it better to look at all sides of a situation rather than hoping and praying and keeping your fingers crossed for the market to go to 10K?
4) Also how can you ignore the massive wealth destruction by all sectors and many companies? I have a lot of family and friends who are doctors who say there's way less volume and less patients able to pay their bills. My friend's aunt also a doctor was laid off from a hospital as well as the whole staff!
Also what about all the layoffs that haven't occurred yet such as the 50K in Citi, 30K for BofA, etc? Also the states going bankrupts, that they will have to either give paycuts to all employees or lay them off. The employer sponsered 401ks being cut off and pensions.
Many investors don't want to invest their money into anything anymore because people don't have money for new projects and there's a loss of interest in the new projects. If these things happen, then how will companies generate more revenue to increase the stock prices?
We have gone down about 50% on the DOW from the peak. But what does that mean, does it mean anything? So what? Why would it be unheard of to even go back to 1980 or 1990 levels since all this time we've had skyrocketing inflation?
I still don't understand your full confidence. You have to know there is SOME risk right?
If you mean YOUR business, then more power to you, that's a business decision. If you mean "business," then are you a passive investor? How are you investing? What kind of return are you expecting? (hey, I'll give you a pass on these questions if you'd rather not give details)
At the moment my business, but if I had extra cash above and beyond that I would likely put it in other business as an active member.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
Hey, we're on the same page! I'm not in cash, because it doesn't earn enough, but close to it (ATOIX has been great, rock steady taxable-equivalent return of 5.55% and no capital gains and very liquid).
I wouldn't touch ATOIX, municipals are likely to start to default.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
Please do enlighten us as to how news, economic indicators, earnings, announcements, upgrades and downgrades, etc. don't affect the market. Thanks, I'm genuinely interested in reading what you have to post.
I would just be repeating others. Many have done research and found that news does not drive the market. There will be a piece of news and the market does something people assume its causally correlated, but when you survey investors you find that they usually aren't acting on the news. I know Robert Shiller has done studies on this, I forgot off hand who else has.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
Your loss I guess. If there's not a way up, is it really a bottom? Are you saying it goes to 5000 or some low level and stays around that indefinitely?
I'm not making any particular prediction on where it goes, but I think it will stagnate for many many years in terms of capital gains. Going forward equities are going to be about dividends not capital gains....as they were before the gigantic ponzi scheme.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
There's really not much chance in hell my "blood" will be "extracted." Like it or not, and you obviously don't like it much, it is quite possible to put quite a few extra dollars in the account by making little mouse clicks in the right patterns at the right times, and it's really not that difficult and "doomed to fail" is sort of melodramatic.
In order to move forward the economy will need to flush this crap out. Over the last couple of years you could make money as a day trader taking advantage of the volatility, but I think even this is coming to an end very shortly. The day traders themselves will eat their own lunch...they will become a stabilizing force. The market is ironic like that...
The economy will suck pseudo-wealth out in a variety of ways. The most obviously is a decline in your entitlements (in your case, your investment accounts), but there are other ways this can occur (ahem...unemployment). As far as I know you're relatively young so there isn't that much to extract yet...the most will be extracted from those 40+. Their entitlements are far too large, they are trying to take out more production then can put it. The only way that can occur is if the people below them produce less than they use....which isn't going to happen.
What will happen to stocks if people 30 and under stop putting money in them?
I'm perfectly aware how I can gamble on the equity markets. But why would I bother when I can put the money to better use? Furthermore, I'm undecided to what the major indexes will decline. I have not made a prediction on these matters, I've only suggested that its completely within the realm of possible events that the DOW collapses to 4000~5000.
I'm going to put my money into things that I can predict with much better probability than the equity markets, namely business.
Whats my strategy? Put my money to productive use and not gamble with it. Also, my suggestion at this point should be obvious, namely stay out of the equity markets and stay largely in cash.
The markets aren't driven by "news", the sooner you realize that the better. There are numerous studies on this.
There really is nothing particularly vague about it. There are numerous rather large bubbles that are collapsing, when bubbles collapse they bleed all the pseudo-wealth that was created during their formation. There are no free lunches and you can't get something from nothing.
I will think about investing in equities if they go back to their traditional role in the market economy rather than the current Ponzi Scheme.
Anyhow, I have no interest in making money on the way down or on the way up (although ahem.....I don't think there is going to be a way up...).
I'm investing in a business, most of my extra cash in my name is in CD's at 4~5%. I have some money market, bonds and stocks (very little) in a retirement account, but I don't contribute much to retirement accounts.
Because you are trying to make money without adding anything productive to the economy. Ultimately, that is doomed to fail.
I totally agree with your post Humanoid! I can't give you enuf reps!
You conveniently left out the last part of November 17 ...
All's fair in quotes but, don't exclude the 8-9K call either. You selectively edited that one out just for the sake of boosting your argument. Kind of cheesy ... like adding a convenient time frame after the 5K call proved to be a dud.
Yeah, it would have been better to buy everything at 7,500 but, I know I can't predict those fluctuations so, my strategy is to always buy on the dips if the market goes down ... which, I did and continue to do so.
As far as bad moves what's better? Starting to buy at 9K and lowering my basis to 8500 ... which is more or less where the market is now or ...
Shorting the market at 5K ... which never happened. I think the answer is obvious.
I have been shorting as the market approaches 9K, selling when it approaches 8k. Making a handsome profit doing so. You announced your buy in at 9,600 and now claim a basis of 8,500, how convenient. You keep saying I predicted the market would be at 5,000 by now, which is a lie, stop lying and reread my post.
You announced your buy in at 9,600 and now claim a basis of 8,500, how convenient. You keep saying I predicted the market would be at 5,000 by now, which is a lie, stop lying and reread my post.
The Dow was at 9600 Nov 4, not the 5th. I made my purchases late in the day on Nov 5 when the Dow was at 9100, but after the market closed (I live on the west coast) so, the purchases actually occured on the 6th when the Dow closed at 8700. I've been buying as much as I can on the dips ever since and continue to do so.
Did I buy too early? Sure ... which is why I continue to buy on the dips to lower my basis.
You, announced your prediction on Nov 19th that the Dow would go to 5,000 if it broke 7800. On that same day the Dow closed at 7900. By the 20th it went to 7500 but then it rallied up to 8000 by the 21st. It hasn't returned to the 7000's since then and hasn't gotten anywhere near 5K, that's for sure.
Obviously your prediction was made in the current context of where the market was at that time ... which was 7900. But since it didn't prove accurate now you're saying it will get to 5K next year.
I'm sure if that doesn't work out (and it won't) you'll be saying the Dow will get to 5K ten years from now. No matter ... I'm more than willing to wait six months when you'll look even more foolish then.
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