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Other than those three days ... it's been bouncing between 8-9K, as I predicted, for the last five weeks since I started this thread on November 17.
Your prediction was wrong, its really that simple. You called a bottom yet, the DOW declined around 1,200 points after you did so.... Only time will tell if your prediction for Spring is correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheri257
Again, it looks like you're having a problem with reading comprehension. Winkelman's prediction was as follows ...
I'll repeat myself. No time frame was explicitly given. I have criticized his position as well as yours, he is just not being as.....well you know.
Your prediction was wrong, its really that simple. You called a bottom yet, the DOW declined around 1,200 points after you did so.... Only time will tell if your prediction for Spring is correct.
For crying out loud ... please read the original post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheri257
I'm calling it ... buy stocks now when they're nice and cheap. The market is about to turn.
The Dow will bounce between 8-9K for awhile but six months from now the Dow will be over 10K or more.
And with the exception of just three days ... that's exactly what has happened.
So what ... you're going to complain about me being wrong for just three days out of the last five weeks?
Of course ... you've got to nitpick about something.
Ok so ... in the last five weeks the Dow dropped below 8,000 for all of three days. November 19-21, to be precise.
Other than those three days ... it's been bouncing between 8-9K, as I predicted, for the last five weeks since I started this thread on November 17.
Again, it looks like you're having a problem with reading comprehension. Winkelman's prediction was as follows ...
As you have just pointed out, the Dow broke 7800 briefly getting down to 7500 in November... yet it didn't get down to 5,000 as Winkelman predicted.
With the exception of three days out of the last five weeks ... I've been right on the money.
Winkelman hasn't been right once.
Naturally ... you're going to criticize me and not him ... for no other reason than to be a jerk, I guess.
But you certainly don't have much credibility with these arguments.
Sheri,
I have no problem with you making any predictions you choose. I do have a problem with you claiming to be right about something where the events have yet to play out.
1. You claimed on November 5th that the market hit bottom. WRONG
All the major indexed made new intraday and closing lows after that date. That was after you claimed capitulation. You can't have capitulation and then have the market make new lows a few weeks later.
2. You keep claiming that you are right on all this and everyone else is wrong.
How am I wrong on my 5,000 prediction? That is like me saying you are wrong because the Dow is not at 10,000. I did not put a time frame on when it will reach 5,000, so how am I wrong?
The feds have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the economy and the stock market is still stuck where it is. Just like Japan did. I will stick by my 5,000 prediction and expect it to reach there by the middle of 2009, lets say before July 1st.
3. I understand buying on margin with your brokerage account. You are borrowing against your line of credit, putting the money into your brokerage account and margining that borrowed money. Is your broker aware that you are doing that? I know my brokers by SEC Books and Records Rules – Rule 17a-3 and Rule 17a-4 are required to ask about my financial status from time to time. Are you telling them you have no cash and are borrowing against a line of credit to buy stocks?
Why do you need a time frame? The Dow either broke 7800 or it didn't.
Turns out it did break 7800. However, it did not plunge to 5,000 after that ... as Winkelman predicted.
Why do you have to argue the obvious?
Again, I did not say it would immediately plunge to 5,000. Give it time. Meanwhile I am making money on each plunge. Not losing like you are. And, I am not borrowing money to fund my account. I am in a good financial situation and would never extend myself like that.
How am I wrong on my 5,000 prediction? That is like me saying you are wrong because the Dow is not at 10,000. I did not put a time frame on when it will reach 5,000, so how am I wrong?
How many times do I have to post what you said? Since we're obviously having problems with reading comprehension and, also, retention, here it is once again ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winkelman
New closing lows today on all indexes. That is a major bearish signal. Looking at the charts if we break 7800, we are going to 5000.
Let me repeat ...
If we break 7800, we are going to 5,000.
We broke 7800 ... but we did not go to 5,000. Instead, we went up to as high as 8,900.
So now you're claiming it will be next year? You've got to be kidding. That's a crap response, a complete cop out and beyond ridiculous.
You can nit pick my predictions all you want but they've been a hellava lot more accurate than yours.
How many times do I have to post what you said? Since we're obviously having problems with reading comprehension and, also, retention, here it is once again ...
Let me repeat ...
If we break 7800, we are going to 5,000.
We broke 7800 ... but we did not go to 5,000. Instead, we went up to as high as 8,900.
So now you're claiming it will be next year? You've got to be kidding. That's a crap response, a complete cop out and beyond ridiculous.
You can nit pick my predictions all you want but they've been a hellava lot more accurate than yours.
We have been in a 8k to 9k trading range for a while now, which I and many others here have pointed out a while back. So you are claiming to be right by pointing out the obvious?
Your other two predictions, back on November 5th, you called the bottom of the market. WRONG
2nd prediction, market up to 10,000 within six months. That has yet to happen.
What else have you claimed that is correct? You act like you are Nostradamus! Give it a rest.
You obviously cannot read a sentence without adding something that is not there. Don't put words in my mouth. WHEN DID I SAY IT WOULD GO TO 5,000? I DID NOT. We broke 7,800 we are going to 5,000. I stand by that. Somehow that had to happen instantly or I am wrong? Please! You are really grasping for straws! I added a date since you seem to have trouble comprehending my original statement. I just dumbed it down for you. Obviously not nearly enough. Whoosh! Right over your head.
If the market moves up, breaks 10,000 within 6 months you are right. If it falls to 5,000 by July I am right. End of subject. Stop trying to claim some sort of victory on this GW, I mean "Sheri"
You are nothing more than a troll, just looking to stir things up. How is that bridge treating you?
I've only suggested that its completely within the realm of possible events that the DOW collapses to 4000~5000.
Sure, it's possible, but I'd say unlikely. I'm not making predictions either other than that intraday trading will continue to be profitable and that I think gold and crude are going higher in the next eighteen months.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
I'm going to put my money into things that I can predict with much better probability than the equity markets, namely business.
If you mean YOUR business, then more power to you, that's a business decision. If you mean "business," then are you a passive investor? How are you investing? What kind of return are you expecting? (hey, I'll give you a pass on these questions if you'd rather not give details)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
Whats my strategy? Put my money to productive use and not gamble with it. Also, my suggestion at this point should be obvious, namely stay out of the equity markets and stay largely in cash.
Hey, we're on the same page! I'm not in cash, because it doesn't earn enough, but close to it (ATOIX has been great, rock steady taxable-equivalent return of 5.55% and no capital gains and very liquid). I'm not going long-term in any equities or ETFs at the moment, although I'm eyeing commodities ETFs right now. I happen to use a portion of my money to make intraday trades sometimes and I've done well in the last couple months. It's possible to be conservative, avoid becoming a victim, and make money in this volatility.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
The markets aren't driven by "news", the sooner you realize that the better.
Umm, okay. Did I just imagine the $220 I made in an hour on Tuesday on DDM when the FOMC announcement came through?
Please do enlighten us as to how news, economic indicators, earnings, announcements, upgrades and downgrades, etc. don't affect the market. Thanks, I'm genuinely interested in reading what you have to post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
Anyhow, I have no interest in making money on the way down or on the way up (although ahem.....I don't think there is going to be a way up...).
Your loss I guess. If there's not a way up, is it really a bottom? Are you saying it goes to 5000 or some low level and stays around that indefinitely? Maybe so. I think that's unlikely, but I do believe there will still be ways to make money in the neverending doldrums.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
I'm investing in a business, most of my extra cash in my name is in CD's at 4~5%. I have some money market, bonds and stocks (very little) in a retirement account, but I don't contribute much to retirement accounts.
Hope it works out for you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
Because you are trying to make money without adding anything productive to the economy. Ultimately, that is doomed to fail.
Hehe, I'll let you know. Like I said many times, I'm very conservative overall. Even my day trades have aggressive trailing stop losses and limits attached. My 401K is practically even as far as return year to date given how FGOVX has done this year. There's really not much chance in hell my "blood" will be "extracted." Like it or not, and you obviously don't like it much, it is quite possible to put quite a few extra dollars in the account by making little mouse clicks in the right patterns at the right times, and it's really not that difficult and "doomed to fail" is sort of melodramatic. Unethical? Immoral? Waste? I can still sleep at night, so I'll keep doing what I do here and there and you keep doing what you're doing.
If the market moves up, breaks 10,000 within 6 months you are right. If it falls to 5,000 by July I am right.
Yeah ... that's really convenient. Rewriting a prediction after it's obviously proven wrong.
Whatever ... we'll check back in six months because I will hold you to it.
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