Moving to PVB (Jacksonville, Ormond Beach, Jacksonville Beach: insurance, house, to live)

[flbnd]

We are considering a move to PVB. We have never lived on the beach and are a little concerned about hurricanes.
I've read alot of the posts about the desirability of PVB but have not heard much about the hurricane risk. Is this because the risk is much less than other parts of coastal Florida? Any longtime residents have any information about past hurricane strikes and evacuations from this area?

[CBB]

I'm not yet a resident of PVB, but one reason why we chose PVB for retirement is that the chance to be hit by a hurricane is relatively low. Here are three websites I had bookmarked during my research for the perfect spot for us (sorry, I can't get the links in here differently ):

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/history/probabilities-table.htm]USATODAY.com (broken link)

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate...er/hur5002.jpg

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/paststate.html]TPC (broken link) NHC U.S. HURRICANE STRIKES BY STATE

Some of the hurricanes that hit the Gulf side of Florida do come "through the back door", though. I remember having read that in South Ponte Vedra Beach an older beach house on stilts collapsed in 2004 (?) - but it was a tear-down anyway.

As for evacuations - I only know of hurricane Floyd in Sept 1999, when almost every spot on the East Coast was evacuated. Never heard about any other occasion although I try to get any information available. The locals will know better.

Connie

[flbnd]

Thanks for your information. I appreciate it!

[rtt]

The last direct hit was Dora in '65 if that makes you feel anybetter. There's something about Jax (indentation?) that makes in not exactly immune to a hit, but less likely, apparently.

[FLPL75]

I lived in Ponte Vedra when hurricane Floyd was "threatening" in Sept 1999
I evacuated to Orange Park. Funny thing is we lost power in OP but my house in PV never lost power.

I have also heard it is the way we are situated that the storms go right by.

[riveree]

I agree with all of the above.

There's always going to be a higher risk of damage if you're coastal, but if you're going to be coastal, NE FLorida is the place to do it - we've got the lowest risk of anywhere else coastal in Florida .

You'll see after you're here for a while that the storms will threaten us, they'll get real close, but then they'll turn northward and slam into the Carolinas usually.

It's not foolproof - there's nothing to say we can't get a direct hit (as pointed out, we had a direct hit once already in recorded history), but you risk level is low here.

It's also important to know that we do get hurricane force winds which can and do damage. If you're going to live east of the Intracoastal Waterway, you heighten your risk of damage. You'll pay more in insurance and you'll have to evacuate sooner in the chance of a hurricane getting dangerously close .

[littlelou]

Originally Posted by riveree

I agree with all of the above.

There's always going to be a higher risk of damage if you're coastal, but if you're going to be coastal, NE FLorida is the place to do it - we've got the lowest risk of anywhere else coastal in Florida .

You'll see after you're here for a while that the storms will threaten us, they'll get real close, but then they'll turn northward and slam into the Carolinas usually.

It's not foolproof - there's nothing to say we can't get a direct hit (as pointed out, we had a direct hit once already in recorded history), but you risk level is low here.

It's also important to know that we do get hurricane force winds which can and do damage. If you're going to live east of the Intracoastal Waterway, you heighten your risk of damage. You'll pay more in insurance and you'll have to evacuate sooner in the chance of a hurricane getting dangerously close .

riveree, I agree with your statemtents and to add to this, my best friend and her husband retired to Ormond Beach in 1999. They were aware of the possibilities of hurricanes but were repeatedly told "This Coast hasn't had a direct hit in 40 years." Well, 2004 comes along and 3 hurricanes in 6 weeks slam their areas. Anyone who lives near the beach needs to be aware and prepared. Just like Northerners prepare for Winter storms, coastal areas have their Hurricanes. You have time before it hits, just use common sense and remember, it's just a house and it can be replaced, can you and your family? Take the irreplaceable valuables with you and evacuate.

[LM1]

Originally Posted by rtt

The last direct hit was Dora in '65 if that makes you feel anybetter. There's something about Jax (indentation?) that makes in not exactly immune to a hit, but less likely, apparently.

It has to do with the influence of the gulf stream on approaching hurricanes, and its relation to northeast Florida.

For example, here's a historical image of the gulf stream, which has an enormous influence on the path of hurricanes (it's that "brown" line in the water off the coast)

http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y209/nintendoretro/gulf_stream_historical_NOAA_theb285.jpg (broken link)

Notice how it basically steers directly away from the state right where the peninsula curves inward and St. Augustine and Jacksonville sit?

In this picture, the gulf stream is denoted by the black line, with the red circle showing the relationship between NEFL and the gulf stream

http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y209/nintendoretro/tulip_GulfStreamA.gif (broken link)

It's pretty clear to see that the gulf streams north/northeasterly influence on Hurricanes right at the point where the peninsula makes an inward curve is going to be generally favorable as far as hurricane impact. When you examine the historical models, it's pretty clear that a lot of hurricanes that would have otherwise hit this area were influenced by the gulf stream and brought north into the Carolinas (Floyd being a recent example)

Of course, there's another huge reason: the Bermuda high pressure ridge is usually located within a generally similar latitude as Jacksonville, causing hurricanes to veer southward into the SOFL communities. (There was a study that showed hurricane impact incidence north of So FL and South of the NC Coast. If I recall correctly, Jacksonville Beach was the historical "least likely" in the entire region)

This three way confluence of circumstances makes NEFL pretty much the only FL community that has an "explainable" lower incidence of hurricane impact. Other places like Citrus County, etc, are simply anomalies.



The last direct coastal impact that occured in NEFL was Dora in 64, which was a very unusual in that it took a direct westerly course off the coast of FL.

http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y209/nintendoretro/800px-Dora_1964_track.png (broken link)

Not to say it can't happen again (it's a certainty that it eventually will) but pound for pound, it's generally more favorable here than anyplace else in the state- pretty certain due to the gulf stream influence and the shape of the state- considering we've only had one in recorded history.

[remember-voltaire]

don't forget tornado's only last week a JAX area got hit

[riveree]

Thanks LM1 ! Great visuals, I haven't seen pictures of the gulf stream path before, that was cool .


Remember Voltaire, that's true, we do get tornados in Florida, though that tends to be more inland. Whenever they hit here locally, it seems to always be west of the river (Saint Johns). The scary thing about the tornados is that there is no warning......at least with the hurricanes we have days and days of warnings, as Littlelou pointed out above.