Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
How will Nocatee be a thriving community, for instance, with builders backing out (Centex?) and companies laying off people by the thousands? (Citigroup) Won't it be a ghosttown? I hope Shaken's right on this but it seems a bit too rosy....Jax was the last to be hit but maybe that's because its not really on the radar screen to begin with? I know of companies here who are actually trying to hire a few people, and can't attract desireable prospects because they know they can't sell their current homes to relo here.
Nocatee, like a lot of our big master-planned communities, seems to be marketing to the folks who are relocating to NEFL. So maybe they are counting on a steady stream of people relocating here from other states, and maybe they are right, we'll have to wait and see.
The factors Kerry pointed out above are very real and Nocatee will have to attract a demographic that is resilient to these factors. With the number of homes Nocatee has to sell in order to avoid being a ghost town, this would appear to be a near impossible task they have ahead of them.
Where are all these Boomers that are supposed to be injecting our economy with their retirement money?
Nocatee, like a lot of our big master-planned communities, seems to be marketing to the folks who are relocating to NEFL. So maybe they are counting on a steady stream of people relocating here from other states, and maybe they are right, we'll have to wait and see.
The factors Kerry pointed out above are very real and Nocatee will have to attract a demographic that is resilient to these factors. With the number of homes Nocatee has to sell in order to avoid being a ghost town, this would appear to be a near impossible task they have ahead of them.
Where are all these Boomers that are supposed to be injecting our economy with their retirement money?
1. Riverwood, the age restricted community (55+) in Nocatee being built by Pulte, is going very steady compared with Toll Bros. section (one house in framing, one slab being formed as of Monday). They have a total of 1100 units in that one community and the work in there is going on regular, that's where it seems the boomers are going. If you haven't seen the Riverwood section, the layout of the homes is awesome. I would buy my parents a house in there if I could convince them to move, but my father is one of those "set in his ways Vietnam Vets" and you're not getting him out of the house he put so much work into himself.
2. Centex pulled out of Jax not because of Nocatee...that may have been the only good land decision they have made in 8 years. Prior to that however, their land acquistion management made several serious missteps (Single family and multi family right next to a dog track??? WTF?) and then there's the multi family subdivision (Cypress Trace) at the corner of Belfort and Parental Home Road....wow, what a location. Who's bright idea was it to buy there??
3. Yes, I understand times are getting tough. Believe me, I own a couple businesses, both of which rely heavily on petroluem based products, and I just got hit with another material price increase today from my biggest supplier, so I am feeling the pinch as well. However, and this thinking is contrary to popular opinion I understand, but the economic situation today will be good for the long term financial health of the country overall. First off, thousands if not millions of people who never learned to budget properly are getting introduced to the concept first hand. We have had it relatively easy since the Great Depression, and consumers for the most part have become gluttonous and spoiled. Secondly, the primary principle for investing, whether it be in the stock market or in real estate (or Pokeman cards for that matter), is to buy low and sell high. My post was primarily aimed at those who understand these basic economics and are able to take advantage of todays market condition. I understand that there are many of those out there that are in unfortunate situations, whether it be through fault of their own or not, it doesn't matter. This is a capitalist society, and right now is a prime time, both in real estate and the stock market, to start capitalizing.
You could argue that the rich are taking advantage of the poor or less advantaged or whatever, but I don't buy into that philosophy. The information is out there for everyone to learn and if they choose not to take advantage of it, then ignorance will always create opportunity for others. It's just the way it is. As a young child, we had zilch, and my brother and I lived in Columbus, Ohio in the back of a liquor store on Cleveland Avenue. I chose not to use my disadvantaged youth as an excuse, and started learning everything I could about investing starting around the age 17. So blah blah blah, without going into excruciatingly boring details, I'm buying stocks, I'm buying real esate, and I'm expanding my businesses. I do realize everyone is not able to get themselves in this position, and I can assure many of you do not even want to be in this position, and I realize things are tight and getting tighter for everyone. We will come out of this though, we always do. Check the history books, it's the American Way.
I don't see the market bottoming price wise (maybe sales-wise) until 2009-2010. No one outside of realtors cares about volume. Once volumes pick up expect prices to follow 6 months later. If sales bottom seasonally adjusted end of 2008, this would make for a summer 2009 price recovery.
I think Jacksonville is late to the party and won't experience the declines seen in other coastal markets but a recovery in the next 3-6 months seems a bit optimistic.
I think you will see bottom mid 2009-2010, price-wise. Time will tell.
Shaken,
Amazing how you were able to rise by your own hard work to where you are today. I admire you and people like you and wish you all the best. People like you will flourish whether the RE market bottoms end of 2008 or in 2010.
I don't see the market bottoming price wise (maybe sales-wise) until 2009-2010. No one outside of realtors cares about volume. Once volumes pick up expect prices to follow 6 months later. If sales bottom seasonally adjusted end of 2008, this would make for a summer 2009 price recovery.
I think Jacksonville is late to the party and won't experience the declines seen in other coastal markets but a recovery in the next 3-6 months seems a bit optimistic.
I think you will see bottom mid 2009-2010, price-wise. Time will tell.
Shaken,
Amazing how you were able to rise by your own hard work to where you are today. I admire you and people like you and wish you all the best. People like you will flourish whether the RE market bottoms end of 2008 or in 2010.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm not "predicting" a major 2009 turnaround in the real estate market. Existing homes may very well continue to decline in price, but I can tell you that the builders don't have any downward room left, and next year, new home prices are going back up. They don't have a choice, material costs are skyrocketing, and with the inventory levels steadily falling, they'll be content to sit back and sell 400 homes a year at a profit vs. sell 1400 at no margin at all.
I guess another way to look at it is this...the rest of this year is the bottom, and then we stay there for awhile...possibly 2010 or 2011, but world events could change things to either and any slight uptick in consumer confidence and or signs of major conflict resolutions in the Middle East, and the market is going to open up like a floodgate. Either way though, now is the time to capitalize, in my opinion of course, and I don't think anyone would argue that it's going to be very interesting to see how things turn out around 2012.
Nocatee, like a lot of our big master-planned communities, seems to be marketing to the folks who are relocating to NEFL. So maybe they are counting on a steady stream of people relocating here from other states, and maybe they are right, we'll have to wait and see.
The factors Kerry pointed out above are very real and Nocatee will have to attract a demographic that is resilient to these factors. With the number of homes Nocatee has to sell in order to avoid being a ghost town, this would appear to be a near impossible task they have ahead of them.
Where are all these Boomers that are supposed to be injecting our economy with their retirement money?
We're here But we are sitting on our cash. No way am I buying now or in the near future. And not in a new development and not in an unfinished development.
Frankly, my plan is, IF I buy... maybe next year and barring unforeseen surprises , to find the very cheapest little condo I can in the best neighborhood I can. In other words minimize my exposure to major loss in the event the HOA goes bust, a hurricane pushes me out for awhile, the neighborhood tanks, whatever. I'm only 55 but maybe even in one of those senior complexes with all the ammenities like buses, etc, at least they are likely to stay solvent and they are cheap, albeit everyone is 2 decades older than me LOL.
My logic is, I can escape the minor inconvenience of a small living space, by going to a job, going outside, on vacation, whatever....but I can't escape the stress of spending money on a depreciating asset, maintaining a big house etc, for what reason? Not worth it.
HA I can put granite and flooring and cabinets in at my leisure in a small place, knock out walls, etc or leave it "original". For me it's stability first, the neighborhood, property then view/landscaping etc, in that order.
My money market alone went from 5.25% in December to 2.25% now, if that. A major impact to people's income obviously.
I believe I'd say we're in boomer inertia for now (wasn't exactly the plan last year LOL)
Now don't get me wrong, I'm not "predicting" a major 2009 turnaround in the real estate market. Existing homes may very well continue to decline in price, but I can tell you that the builders don't have any downward room left, and next year, new home prices are going back up. They don't have a choice, material costs are skyrocketing, and with the inventory levels steadily falling, they'll be content to sit back and sell 400 homes a year at a profit vs. sell 1400 at no margin at all.
I guess another way to look at it is this...the rest of this year is the bottom, and then we stay there for awhile...possibly 2010 or 2011, but world events could change things to either and any slight uptick in consumer confidence and or signs of major conflict resolutions in the Middle East, and the market is going to open up like a floodgate. Either way though, now is the time to capitalize, in my opinion of course, and I don't think anyone would argue that it's going to be very interesting to see how things turn out around 2012.
Well hopefully those builders will figure out how to adjust their margins and hopefully the NE has a demand for new homes.
Right here in Vero there are builders who just shut the job down and walked away leaving 2 streets and a bunch of weeds, standing water, no ammenities and some disgrundled owners who already moved in. There was absolutely no interest. Not to mention those type of developments depressing the entire neighborhood. Nobody is going to move next to that.
I'm not understanding what sort of major conflict resolution in the Middle East to anticipate but that'd be great. Especially if it impacts real estate and oil. The oil that is being paid for through the nose by China and India without a problem.
We're here But we are sitting on our cash. No way am I buying now or in the near future. And not in a new development and not in an unfinished development.
Frankly, my plan is, IF I buy... maybe next year and barring unforeseen surprises , to find the very cheapest little condo I can in the best neighborhood I can. In other words minimize my exposure to major loss in the event the HOA goes bust, a hurricane pushes me out for awhile, the neighborhood tanks, whatever. I'm only 55 but maybe even in one of those senior complexes with all the ammenities like buses, etc, at least they are likely to stay solvent and they are cheap, albeit everyone is 2 decades older than me LOL.
My logic is, I can escape the minor inconvenience of a small living space, by going to a job, going outside, on vacation, whatever....but I can't escape the stress of spending money on a depreciating asset, maintaining a big house etc, for what reason? Not worth it.
HA I can put granite and flooring and cabinets in at my leisure in a small place, knock out walls, etc or leave it "original". For me it's stability first, the neighborhood, property then view/landscaping etc, in that order.
My money market alone went from 5.25% in December to 2.25% now, if that. A major impact to people's income obviously.
I believe I'd say we're in boomer inertia for now (wasn't exactly the plan last year LOL)
Ok, I don't know how much of your portfolio you keep in your money market fund, hopefully you are not like my father and keeping 100% in there just to "be safe." Inflation is eroding your principal if you are...point blank you are losing money. Please do me a favor and look into putting at least a small portion of your money into a much higher yielding investment. There are two Canadian oil trusts that currently pay almost 15% PER MONTH. Part of the distribution goes to pay Canadian taxes, you realize about an 11% gain each month, but you can recapture the Canadian taxes back on your tax return at the end of the year with a simple form your accountant can fill out.
One is called Pengrowth Energy (symbol is PGH) and the other is Harvest Energy Trust (symbol is HTE). I'm not recommending them, I'm just advising to look into them. For someone looking to build an income producing portfolio, these along with some others (Penn West Energy is another good one) would be a good place to start. The only drawback is that most American based brokers will not reinvest the dividends for you, so you just have to keep the cash and use it for whatever else you want.
We're here But we are sitting on our cash. No way am I buying now or in the near future. And not in a new development and not in an unfinished development.
Frankly, my plan is, IF I buy... maybe next year and barring unforeseen surprises , to find the very cheapest little condo I can in the best neighborhood I can. In other words minimize my exposure to major loss in the event the HOA goes bust, a hurricane pushes me out for awhile, the neighborhood tanks, whatever. I'm only 55 but maybe even in one of those senior complexes with all the ammenities like buses, etc, at least they are likely to stay solvent and they are cheap, albeit everyone is 2 decades older than me LOL.
My logic is, I can escape the minor inconvenience of a small living space, by going to a job, going outside, on vacation, whatever....but I can't escape the stress of spending money on a depreciating asset, maintaining a big house etc, for what reason? Not worth it.
HA I can put granite and flooring and cabinets in at my leisure in a small place, knock out walls, etc or leave it "original". For me it's stability first, the neighborhood, property then view/landscaping etc, in that order.
My money market alone went from 5.25% in December to 2.25% now, if that. A major impact to people's income obviously.
I believe I'd say we're in boomer inertia for now (wasn't exactly the plan last year LOL)
the big flaw with your theory is that inflation is depreciating your cash just as fast, over time real estate has always been a wise investment. You just need to think in a very long term
We have had it relatively easy since the Great Depression, and consumers for the most part have become gluttonous and spoiled.
Well that's certainly the truth!
I wonder if new home builders will start to "come down to earth" with home styling as well? Any idea if they'll be building smaller homes, maybe less glitzy?
I'm not understanding what sort of major conflict resolution in the Middle East to anticipate but that'd be great. Especially if it impacts real estate and oil. The oil that is being paid for through the nose by China and India without a problem.
Don't those countries heavily subsidize their oil? Isn't China subsidizing like crazy until the Olympic games start? This is the impression that I got...
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
A few responses.....
bottom in 2009-2010
Humboldt
But we are sitting on our cash. No way am I buying now or in the near future. And not in a new development and not in an unfinished development. 
