[olecapt]

Originally Posted by dude66

Oh that's just priceless, Olecapt. That's like saying "My house only burned down once today, so maybe things are looking up." Ha ha!

And you're actually pinning your hopes on the GOVERNMENT to fix this mess? That's rich!

Every damned day they're bailing out someone new -- it never ends! Yesterday it was American Express pleading to be considered a bank so they can qualify for billions in bailout money. Today it was GM, Chrysler, and Ford begging for billions or they'll all go bankrupt and take the whole U.S. down with them.

Yet the only thing this bailout money actually accomplishes is keep the addiction cycle going -- like AIG now coming back to the trough for more money after they blew through the initial $85 billion we gave them.

Oh man, your post just made me laugh out loud. THAT'S THE BIG PLAN? The government will fix it?

Bwahahaha! You can't seriously believe that can you? All will be well and rosy? There won't be any consequences to this unprecedented train wreck of a mess we've made over the last decade? Hahaha!

You do realize that the government "plan" so far has been to deny and/or bury all the bad debt in hopes it will just go away. Rather than mark to market and actually acknowledge the problems -- thus restoring confidence and transparency to our economy -- Paulson and Bernanke are stupidly hoping their magic wand can wave it away and nobody will have to pay any consequences (other than we the taxpayer).

It won't work. Can't work. This is going to blow up in their faces big-time. Count on it.

But don't just take my word for it. Here's what Nouriel Roubini said today. Roubini is a crackerjack financial analyst who everyone mocked years ago for being "Dr. Doom" when he accurately predicted the mess we're currently experiencing. Well nobody's making fun of him anymore (at least, no one who isn't still wearing rose-colored glasses):

"Obama will inherit and economic and financial mess worse than anything the U.S. has faced in decades: the most severe recession in 50 years; the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression; a ballooning fiscal deficit that may be as high as a trillion dollar in 2009 and 2010; a huge current account deficit; a financial system that is in a severe crisis and where deleveraging is still occurring at a very rapid pace, thus causing a worsening of the credit crunch; a household sector where millions of households are insolvent, into negative equity territory and on the verge of losing their homes; a serious risk of deflation as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets becomes deeper; the risk that we will end in a deflationary liquidity trap as the Fed is fast approaching the zero-bound constraint for the Fed Funds rate; the risk of a severe debt deflation as the real value of nominal liabilities will rise given price deflation while the value of financial assets is still plunging."


But you're right -- "things are looking up", Olecapt.

Pass the grain of salt.

A very large part of the existing problem is perceptual. The belief that it is going to get works causes behavior that makes it worse. In fact RE prices have effectively gone below the levels that would have occured without the bubble. Much of the market is selling well below replacement costs.

The Real Estate market in Las Vegas will require little to tilt it into an upward direction. And those things may well be coming together. Foreclosures are already decreasing. Add even a little pressure on the number of foreclosures by resetting a significant number of owners and we may see the foreclosure numbers drop further. With the high demand at the present low prices the market will run out of inventory. That will stablilize or even increase price.

Nothing about that is far fetched. It is simply a mechanism reaching the end of its life.

Going to be an interesting time.

[Huckleberry3911948]

vegas needs to diversify.
huge rows of toilets with standing people flushing fist fulls of money down them over and over (your basic casino snapshot) is not very creative.

[dynimagelv]

may not be creative but it sure is profitable.....

[olecapt]

Oh an interesting thing...

As of today the November price is up about 0.5 per cent from Oct. That will be the first time we have seen anything other than a down in the first 10 days of a month for a long time. Also appears volume is dropping at least a bit. REPOs are 75% of the sales - I believe that is the highest ever. .

The trend is strong enough that a flat or up price this month is very likely.

The bottom? Hard to say. But the down trend has certain lost its momentim if not its direction.

Actually both REPOs and nonREPOs are up a couple of percent but that is offset by the increasing percentage of REPOs.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Huckleberry3911948

vegas needs to diversify.
huge rows of toilets with standing people flushing fist fulls of money down them over and over (your basic casino snapshot) is not very creative.

The majority of Vegas revenue now is non-gaming. And trending further in that direction.

[dude66]

If anyone needed anymore proof that the government is clueless in this crisis, here it is.

Remember the Big Bailout (TARP) that was explicitly set up to buy troubled mortgages from banks (which is why it was called Troubled Asset Relief Program)?

Well today here's what Paulson told Congress:

"Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Wednesday the $700 billion government rescue program will not be used to purchase troubled assets as originally planned."

It doesn't even live up to its own name now! They are just making this up as they go!

From Bloomberg:

"Paulson's remarks are an acknowledgement that the centerpiece of the $700 billion bailout request to lawmakers was ill-conceived."

And Olecapt -- I think you're living in a bubble all your own. You just don't seem to take into account the macro-economy. A true sustained housing recovery cannot occur without steady and stable employment. As we've seen, the job numbers are getting uglier by the week.

[dude66]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Pass the grain of salt.

A very large part of the existing problem is perceptual. The belief that it is going to get works causes behavior that makes it worse.

That's just ludicrous. But it's also a common refrain I've heard from realtors over the last year. It's all in our head! Isn't that what McCain's chief economic adviser said a couple months ago -- that America was a nation of whiners and that this was a "mental recession"?

Is that what you're saying Olecapt? We're imagining all this??!

Well here's something that I didn't imagine reading this morning:

Best Buy, the No. 1 electronics retailer, cut its full-year profit forecast Wednesday, citing continued weakness in consumer spending that it says has been exacerbated by the "recent turmoil in the financial markets."

"Since mid-September, rapid, seismic changes in consumer behavior have created the most difficult climate we've ever seen," Brad Anderson, chief executive officer of Best Buy, said in a statement. "Best Buy simply can't adjust fast enough to maintain our earnings momentum for this year."

"In 42 years of retailing, we've never seen such difficult times for the consumer," Brian Dunn, president and chief operating officer of Best Buy, said in a statement. "People are making dramatic changes in how much they spend, and we're not immune from those forces."

[dmilll]

Originally Posted by olecapt

The majority of Vegas revenue now is non-gaming. And trending further in that direction.

Where do you see this trending?

Outside of Gaming, Vegas is still highly dependant on Tourism and Convention Revenue. IMHO, The Mega-Resort model combined with the rise in related retail/dining has made Vegas even more dependant on Tourism and much less immune to recession then in years past.

Except for Construction, I just don't see Vegas moving away from this and truly diversifying it's economy anytime soon...

[jfkIII]

Maybe the economy will be like a reset-switch for LV and many other places. It could not possibly have continued as it was going....there had to be an end...and possibly a reversal is now due. It's kind of like the natural occuring forest fires that burn down the dense forest. From the charred remains, new growth occurs.

[airics]

did you read that the bailout doesnt lower the principle either... you have to be behind on your payments to qualify, they will lower the interest rate, and your 30yr loan is now a 40yr loan... i dont think this will stop the bleeding, if i was under water for 200k, i'd be walking away too!