[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Good old and true refrain. That it has been mentioned before in no way changes its validity.

Yes, it remains as untrue as the first time you uttered it.

The situations in Las Vegas and Phoenix and perhaps the Inland Empire were unique. The lenders panicked and drove REOs to over 80% of the market and prices downward at 3 and 4% per month. That happened only in these areas and I don't know enough about the IE to be sure it was the same though it looks similar. May have been similar in FL. Don't follow there well enough to know. Such behavior was not seen in other markets.

Yes, the LV style mortgage crisis was so unique that we've already expanded the example set to include Phoenix, the Inland Empire, and perhaps markets in Florida. All those markets have commonalities that a layman could identify.

The 20% projection is of course possible but not very probable. We could drop into a true depression and end up with much worse numbers than this. Again unlikely presuming things continue as they are going. But real probabilities...

And there is some probability that the meteorite will happen...

The 2008 quote dealt with a possible outcome which was vastly more likely than what actually occured. It is also moot as the outcome is known and all but the real outcome are eliminated.

We're actually in some agreement here. However low the probability of another 20% haircut occuring in Vegas RE might be, it's still a higher probability than a 10% YoY price increase occurring from December of 2008. The high probability that you assigned to that happening is now virtually nil.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Yes, it remains as untrue as the first time you uttered it.Yes, the LV style mortgage crisis was so unique that we've already expanded the example set to include Phoenix, the Inland Empire, and perhaps markets in Florida.

Actually the Phoenix and Las Vegas market were the same phenomena and have behaved in very much the same way. The money that first hit Vegas moved on to Phoenix. I have no idea whether a similar mechanism worked in the IE or in FL. IE looks similar enough that it could be the same.

All those markets have commonalities that a layman could identify.We're actually in some agreement here. However low the probability of another 20% haircut occuring in Vegas RE might be, it's still a higher probability than a 10% YoY price increase occurring from December of 2008. The high probability that you assigned to that happening is now virtually nil.

You were doing good and then you lie again. Quote the source of "high".

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Actually the Phoenix and Las Vegas market were the same phenomena and have behaved in very much the same way. The money that first hit Vegas moved on to Phoenix. I have no idea whether a similar mechanism worked in the IE or in FL. IE looks similar enough that it could be the same.

Ah, I forgot the migrating bubble theory.

You were doing good and then you lie again. Quote the source of "high".

Oops. You didn't say there was a high probability that housing prices would increase 10% YoY. You said there was a significant probability that housing prices would increase 10% YoY. My bad. The devil is in the detailia.

Originally Posted by olecapt on12/4/2008

YOu are being far to broad in your definition of a bad year. We could very easily have a bad year with a 10% increase in the cost of housing. In fact I would think it has a significant probabliity.

So, what exactly is the probability spread between high and significant?

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Ah, I forgot the migrating bubble theory.Oops. You didn't say there was a high probability that housing prices would increase 10% YoY. You said there was a significant probability that housing prices would increase 10% YoY. My bad. The devil is in the detailia.
So, what exactly is the probability spread between high and significant?

Comeon. You are not that dumb.

Significant is bigger than a bread box.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Comeon. You are not that dumb.

Significant is bigger than a bread box.

So, one could say that there's more than a bread box of probability that your 12/08 suggestion of a 10% YoY housing price increase is not coming to pass? If Vegas housing prices take another 20% haircut over the next year, will you be here to tell us that no one could have seen it coming?

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

So, one could say that there's more than a bread box of probability that your 12/08 suggestion of a 10% YoY housing price increase is not coming to pass? If Vegas housing prices take another 20% haircut over the next year, will you be here to tell us that no one could have seen it coming?

I take it back...