[dude66]

Signs are dim, but is Vegas’ future?

Experts admit we’re in a deep downturn, but each envisions a rebound — eventually

Sun, Aug 3, 2008

For those of us who thought we lived in Boomtown U.S.A., the dramatic downshift in the economy has been unsettling at the least, jarring for many.

One analyst they interview says: "The economy is the worst it’s been in 30 years. It's reminiscent of the economy of the early 1980s."

full article: Las Vegas Sun

[PinkString]

It will bounce back in a year or two. It could be worse...the world could really end in 2012 just when LV is finally back to where we were in 2005-2006.

[sheriff]

Originally Posted by dude66

Signs are dim, but is Vegas’ future?

Experts admit we’re in a deep downturn, but each envisions a rebound — eventually

Sun, Aug 3, 2008

For those of us who thought we lived in Boomtown U.S.A., the dramatic downshift in the economy has been unsettling at the least, jarring for many.

One analyst they interview says: "The economy is the worst it’s been in 30 years. It's reminiscent of the economy of the early 1980s."

full article: Las Vegas Sun

Interesting article, but so many in LV seem to be of the belief-------"if we build it, they will come". Fact is, revenue is declining, and somewhere betweeen 20-30k new rooms are coming on line, or @ a 20-25% increase in rooms. A revenue growth of 1-2%/yr has been the norm, So, unless a miracle happens, a 20% increase in rooms and jobs, with no chance for a 20% growth in revenue means what? Basically the 16 inch LV "pizza" currently sliced 8 ways, will be sliced 12 ways. There will be winners, but there also will be losers. Most will earn less, and many will lose any sense of job security. Typically, when new resorts open, the vast majority of "good" jobs are filled by transfers from sister properties, or those already in LV with many years experience at their jobs. Unless one is a physical "10", or can provide expertise in a field the local applicant simply cannot provide, most out-of-state new hires will be living on the employment and economic "edge". Extra-board, part time, no benefits, etc.

[jfkIII]

Maybe the casino industry has finally hit the saturation point?

[NVDave]

These guys are completely ignoring the shift that the high price of fuel(s) will cause. People have to get to Vegas somehow in order to support the gaming industry, and high gas, diesel and jet fuel prices will a) reduce the number of people coming to Vegas directly, and b) take money out of their pockets they would have used on gaming.

None of these brilliant minds thought about the impact of higher fuel prices. A sure sign that they've been drinking deeply of the Vegas propaganda.

[AA702]

What if gas prices drop back to the $3 range? It has been dropping lately, do you think it will bounce back? Every industry is hurting, especially the retail sector.

[NVDave]

In the short term, yes, gas will come down a bit.

Long term, with Reid/Pelosi's refusal to allow the US to develop more oil resources? No, it is headed only higher. Enjoy your respite for the time being - oil prices are coming down because the oil consumption is coming down, and consumption is coming down because a recession is coming.

[jfkIII]

Some signs are dim...or...signs are dim sum.

[MomMom]

Originally Posted by sheriff

Interesting article, but so many in LV seem to be of the belief-------"if we build it, they will come". Fact is, revenue is declining, and somewhere betweeen 20-30k new rooms are coming on line, or @ a 20-25% increase in rooms. A revenue growth of 1-2%/yr has been the norm, So, unless a miracle happens, a 20% increase in rooms and jobs, with no chance for a 20% growth in revenue means what? Basically the 16 inch LV "pizza" currently sliced 8 ways, will be sliced 12 ways. There will be winners, but there also will be losers. Most will earn less, and many will lose any sense of job security. Typically, when new resorts open, the vast majority of "good" jobs are filled by transfers from sister properties, or those already in LV with many years experience at their jobs. Unless one is a physical "10", or can provide expertise in a field the local applicant simply cannot provide, most out-of-state new hires will be living on the employment and economic "edge". Extra-board, part time, no benefits, etc.

Excellent post Sheriff. I agree. What I've heard is that there seems to be more and more part time positions opening up than ever before.

Props cutting costs? Why hire the full time worker with full benefits when two low-paid part timers can do the work?

I have to agree with your views on the new hires. When 9/11 ocurred the first ones to get laid off were the new hires. Only the most experienced, long timers were kept on and asked to do extra hours on their shifts.

The suits have to make their money somehow, and if they aren't getting it through rooms booked and gaming revenue, the natural thing to do is start cutting back on the work force.

In these bad times, the new hires MUST realize that they have no job stability and if a lay off happens, they will be the first to go.


Only time will tell. It is still amazing me that people are still thinking that Las Vegas is immune to the economic crunch. They have "heard" that Las Vegas is still "booming" when in fact, it isn't right now.

Will it get better? Probably, we've always been a resilient city and there will always be a "need" for Sin City...but this is going to take time, this bad economy is hurting way too many people across the country....in the very place that Las Vegas thrives on...their pocketbooks.

[jpk]

Originally Posted by AA702

What if gas prices drop back to the $3 range? It has been dropping lately, do you think it will bounce back? Every industry is hurting, especially the retail sector.

Gas is most likely headed to around $3.50 based on the futures market this week. It's already in the high 3.xx range today as it dropped below 4.00 nationally this week.

However, since when is the $3 range a good thing? In 1999 I could get a gallon of unleaded for 89 CENTS! Less than ten years later and it was over 400% higher? Gimme a break. I was alarmed when gas prices passed $2, but no one else even blinked.

Through the oil bubble of this year, we've just been conditioned to accept $3+ gas and $85 oil as a good deal, like lemmings.