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It's very unlikely to have rates rise in a deflationary-contractionary environment. I can't think of any time in history where that's happened.
What I would say is more likely is deflation/contraction this year is almost a certainty in most major economies. This will keep a floor on housing prices as rates have more room to the down-side. People have been saying rates are going to rise for the last 5 years. We're near record lows. They are negative in some European countries.
It's interesting to note that the OP and one of the main gadflies on this thread BOTH have screennames identifying with NY! Are they trying to make themselves seem more important by having a connection with NY, even though they hate it?
ny******* (gibberish numbers) and Ex New Yorker, why do you have NY in your screennames? If you really hate NY so much it does not make any sense to identify yourself with it. You can change your screennames on CD rather easily if you wanted to disassociate yourself from NY!
Speaking of screen names, if you love LI so much, what's with the but?
I could take a tour down there soon of NC and SC. We have a friend planning to move to SC in a gated community in an undeveloped hick area. All he can talk about is how his taxes will only be $1,500 a year. He's already asking us to visit even before he's moved. He's got the house he owned for 20 years for sale for 4 times what he paid for it and plans to buy the new house cash and will have enough money left over to supplement his retirement. Now say he lived in some hick town ... what kind of appreciation would he have gotten? The difference between him and some of the posters on he is that he is smart enough to know what side his bread is buttered on and appreciates living on LI for getting a boost to go somewhere else for retirement. Again, a person who is not a dick about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Love_LI_but
Let me just add my friend's house is in a VERY popular area with one of the top school districts. He is not in one of the middle of the price range areas. There are already homes selling there in the $1.8M range.
Too many missing details in your anecdote.
Where in SC is your friend moving to that his home is in a undeveloped area yet has a top school district?
What town is his current LI house in?
When did he buy the LI house and what did he pay for it? This would help to quantify the context in which it quadrupled in value in the time he owned it.
What kind of appreciation would he have gotten in the hick town? Why not look it up? If something in his new area is selling for $1.8 million, there must have been some appreciation going on there. I would guess that person in SC experienced some kind of appreciation similar to what LIers experienced if they owned that home or that property for the same time frame your friend owned his home on LI when his house quadrupled in value on LI.
Where in SC is your friend moving to that his home is in a undeveloped area yet has a top school district?
What town is his current LI house in?
When did he buy the LI house and what did he pay for it? This would help to quantify the context in which it quadrupled in value in the time he owned it.
What kind of appreciation would he have gotten in the hick town? Why not look it up? If something in his new area is selling for $1.8 million, there must have been some appreciation going on there. I would guess that person in SC experienced some kind of appreciation similar to what LIers experienced if they owned that home or that property for the same time frame your friend owned his home on LI when his house quadrupled in value on LI.
General Info Section (bolded only):
24 yrs. ago. Around $200K.
Reading Comprehension Section (bolded and underlined):
I am discussing his current house on LI that he wants to sell. He doesn't own a house in SC yet. The biggest and grandest McMansion in the development he wants to move to comes nowhere near $1M, let alone $1.8M. Who knows what the schools are like that serve the part of SC he's moving to. He doesn't have any kids in school now.
Again, I am talking about where he lives now on LI that houses can sell around $1.8M, not SC.
Actually he sent me a link to a SC house he likes with an asking price in the mid $300s. I went on Zillow to look at it there and since last year that house has been going down like crazy and is now "zestimated" in the low 200s. And it's still projected to keep losing value. However, I know that Zillow can be way off on the zestimates. At least they are off on LI because they just cant wrap their webpage code around our school districts and the way they are zoned.
Sorry to get your hopes up about SC schools and real estate values. Please read more carefully next time.
Last edited by I_Love_LI_but; 01-24-2015 at 06:17 PM..
You can see which factors will go up or down and by approx how much %. It's mostly in the housing. Groceries, utilities and such aren't huge deals in the grand scheme, especially when your salary is adjusted.
Also, what a lot of people fail to see is that even Queens or Brooklyn is comparatively more expensive than LI. Nevermind Manhattan. Have you seen what passes for $1mil "homes" in Brooklyn? I'd never...
Another factor about moving away from my hometown is how much of a mundane life I'd live week to week without family and friends and basically just your own kids and what you have going on with them. Sure you can make new friends, but honestly how many people do that much and often with them? I'm reminded of this every time we sit down with college friends or go on our annual family vacations with them. Or even going to each others' kids birthday parties. We have a large group and a long history that cannot be replaced. Relocating mostly comes down to value or affordability and people just have to weigh what's more important to them. Unless it's killing us, we're not likely to move because of so many factors in favor.
As for traffic, it took us 36 mins to get out to Bayside last night, Friday night which is notorious for traffic. It wasn't bad despite the congestion. You'll get traffic in any city worth a damn. It took us 29 mins to get back WITHOUT traffic.
I think the cost-of-living calculators are great, however, your results are based on the destination (I know, I have an incredible grasp of the obvious). If I'm going from NY to Boston, or DC, I'm going to need to make even more than I do now. And yes, housing is huge factor in those moves. I'd check to see if any of the COL calculators include real estate taxes, because NY and NJ are without a doubt the highest in the country and that will further skew the results. I think the real question is what will your income be in your destination because, as mentioned repeatedly in threads on this board, lower COL often are accompanied by lower compensation.
As for congestion, sure all of the urban crapfests are packed. Whether you're in DC, Atlanta, Chicago, Miami, Boston, NYC, LA, San Fran, SeaTac, it's tons of traffic. But what becomes very obvious, some cities and states have made investing in infrastructure a major priority and rush hour in these places is just that, an hour or two, instead of a day long ordeal in NY/LI, your Bayside drive notwithstanding. Try driving out from the city any usual weekday from the QMT to the LIE and tell me how you feel. Then check the traffic cams at 8 or 9 PM. Maybe by 10 PM some of the traffic has died down. It's volume and it's an infrastructure that's largely unchanged over the last 15 years.
As for the mundane life of not having friends or family close-by, life is what you make it. Sure, living in Cleveland without many outlets, be they social or otherwise, is pretty depressing, I wouldn't relo to Cleveland for those reasons. But there are many other places I could see living quite a nice existence, though not without challenges.
I think the cost-of-living calculators are great, however, your results are based on the destination (I know, I have an incredible grasp of the obvious). If I'm going from NY to Boston, or DC, I'm going to need to make even more than I do now. And yes, housing is huge factor in those moves. I'd check to see if any of the COL calculators include real estate taxes, because NY and NJ are without a doubt the highest in the country and that will further skew the results. I think the real question is what will your income be in your destination because, as mentioned repeatedly in threads on this board, lower COL often are accompanied by lower compensation.
As for congestion, sure all of the urban crapfests are packed. Whether you're in DC, Atlanta, Chicago, Miami, Boston, NYC, LA, San Fran, SeaTac, it's tons of traffic. But what becomes very obvious, some cities and states have made investing in infrastructure a major priority and rush hour in these places is just that, an hour or two, instead of a day long ordeal in NY/LI, your Bayside drive notwithstanding. Try driving out from the city any usual weekday from the QMT to the LIE and tell me how you feel. Then check the traffic cams at 8 or 9 PM. Maybe by 10 PM some of the traffic has died down. It's volume and it's an infrastructure that's largely unchanged over the last 15 years.
As for the mundane life of not having friends or family close-by, life is what you make it. Sure, living in Cleveland without many outlets, be they social or otherwise, is pretty depressing, I wouldn't relo to Cleveland for those reasons. But there are many other places I could see living quite a nice existence, though not without challenges.
The COL calculators are somewhat generic. As anyone here knows, a calculator that says Suffolk is pretty much useless as there's a big difference between Head of the Harbor and Central Islip. Even ones that list "Huntington" or "Smithtown" are subject to a lot of variation.
A NYC income is usually based on one or two things - association with the financial market where specialized knowledge (or stamina!) is required, or recognition of a higher cost of living. If you're not in the financial industry (or perhaps fashion, theater or something else tied to NYC) you can often do pretty close nowadays living elsewhere, especially if you're higher up in your career. Many companies relocate to cheaper areas not specifically because of the pursuit of lower labor costs, but for a better regulatory/taxation climate. I know people who make similar salaries in Texas as they do on Long Island, because it's a standard salary with minor adjustments for cost of living.
Nuts, right? People are not drinking the kool aid this time (bubble) around. The savers are unrelenting - despite central bank efforts to push them into risky assets. They'd rather pay interest to lend their money than put it into riskier assets, particularly in Germany & Switzerland where even as far out as 7 & 10 year bonds are negative. That screams DEFLATION - even more so than oil tanking 55%. Wealth preservation is the name of the game.
With P/E multiples of 19 on the S&P, I'm not buying it either. Everything peaked around 1980-1990, IMHO. Global population growth is slowing dramatically (and aging at the same time).
The pie is not big enough for most companies to grow into the ridiculous valuations the investment world is placing on them. I guess you could trick yourself into believing just about anything if it serves your own self interest. I think we're heading back to 10 P/Es as the norm - 25-50% correction in all equity markets. This is the end result of 102 years of fractional reserve banking...it's unwinding like a slow-motion train wreck.
/rant
a little off topic but who cares, this thread is a joke anyway, ha ha.
Last edited by Howard Beale; 01-26-2015 at 08:48 AM..
Well, I don't know about that. During the real estate boom the prices went up wildly in lots of areas. Then when it CRASHED the houses went down to almost nothing. I remember the real estate agents in California filling buses of potential investment buyers and taking them on tours of foreclosed house after house to see. You'd think that couldn't happen in CA, since it is so popular, but I guess they overbuilt. In contrast, LI is an island and there's not much opportunity for overbuilding
I also have a friend in Florida who bought several condos to flip. They were doing fantastic until the bubble popped and suddenly things were worth half. They made a lot of money, but even so, they are still stuck with 2 condos that they would have a big loss on and nobody wants to buy anyway. They have been renting these condos for years for less that it takes to carry them, so they will have a loss for years on that. This is another state were during the boom they overbuilt houses and condos. I have hear some terrible things about Venice, FL. Block after block of very nice homes empty.
In contrast, LI did not experience such massive ups and downs in value as some other places in the country.
Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Love_LI_but
If we're still on here together after 20 years, we will revisit this discussion!
haha - we will revisit it!
I think we could have a war on anecdotal evidence... plenty of examples here and there. Older established suburbs of Charlotte have done very well, even compared to LI. This may shock you!
Example from Zillow. Note that the peak isn't as high so it doesn't drop as far as a percentage...:
As for the mundane life of not having friends or family close-by, life is what you make it. Sure, living in Cleveland without many outlets, be they social or otherwise, is pretty depressing, I wouldn't relo to Cleveland for those reasons. But there are many other places I could see living quite a nice existence, though not without challenges.
Actually, Cleveland is still losing population and has a lot of problems in its outlying areas, but they cleaned up the downtown rather nice. If I was just out of school, I would undoubtedly choose downtown Cleveland over living in some illegal converted basement in souless Long Island.
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