Summer traffic could be nuts (how much, depreciation, contractors)

[mdovell]

Get a mallox folks it's one of those days. The markets are taking a hit but this is weird. Anyways Russia and Saudi arabia are having a pissing contest with oil and it's plunging about 17%.

At this point we might see oil at 19 year lows. Remember that time post 9/11 that winter how low things got? about that price level. I can see under $2 a gallon and maybe under $1.50 if it really gets bad.

So that coupled with coronavirus...

If flights are restricted and trains (Acela down...mbta?) the only recourse is drive.

Dirt cheap gas and restrictions on other ways to get there are going to create much more in traffic.

In some ways this is going to be a great year to go RV'ing cross country on the cheap. But if you are stuck in daily traffic in the 128 belt that hell is going to get hotter.

[mdovell]

Of course the other factor into this will be if the price decline by so much it could give support to pass TCI and more gas taxes.

Remember when Ross Perot said he'd put a 50 cent gas tax each year in office for his four years (if elected)? People thought who would pay $3 a gallon for gas...uh.

[BostonMike7]

Depends. If Coronavirus is still a major topic by summer, a lot more people could be in WFH mode and traffic could be less for the daily commute. I've already mentioned a few times that my daily commute along I-95 has gone from 45-50min down to 35min in the past few weeks. Could be other factors other than more people WFH such as the longer days meaning contractors are working jobs for longer, vs getting on the road at sundown.

But I do agree in the respect that more people will vacation locally which means weekend traffic will be higher. Seems like that has been on the uptick for a while.

We actually have a pretty light vacation schedule this summer in terms of local trips planned. May even cancel those depending on how things go

[GeoffD]

Fuel cost is a very small fraction of the ownership cost of my car. Most of us don't drive 12 mpg Detroit big metal gas guzzlers in 2020. I drive what is considered a fuel-inefficient car in 2020 and I see 25 mpg highway. Even full size pickups see 23 mpg highway these days if you do the speed limit. It's why gasoline taxes no longer bring in enough revenue to fund maintaining road infrastructure. My big cost is depreciation. The price of gasoline doesn't change my behavior at all. I'd still drive the same amount if gasoline were free.



So where are you going to drive to? If it really is a pandemic and Northern Italy protocol becomes the norm in the United States for the next 6 months, many usual tourist destinations will be closed.

[G-fused]

Traffic during summer is typically a lot better. Vacations, University populations gone, etc. Maybe it own't be as better but I think it'll be Ok.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by G-fused

Traffic during summer is typically a lot better. Vacations, University populations gone, etc. Maybe it own't be as better but I think it'll be Ok.

I hope so. If Covid-19 is still a huge concern, I can see people opting for the car instead of trains, buses, and planes for their trips though. So we'll see.

[Bridge781]

Hmm I guess I don’t see traffic as being that bad this summer. People are going to be more nervous to be spend money because of the stock market and the economy. Also people will likely be afraid to travel due to coronavirus.

[gf2020]

I don't agree with your hypothesis. Has the price of gas ever made you decide not to travel?

[mdovell]

What I'm saying though is if trains and plans shut down and possibly buses then it makes everything local. The Acela is already down to May 26th. That's 10 weeks.

https://1010wins.radio.com/articles/...-acela-service

The head of the NY port authority also tested positive. If transit workers do not feel protected some of them won't show up.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/port...uomo-says.html

If the MBTA shuts down how much worse could summer traffic get?

On prices I'm not saying that suddenly people will start driving that were held back. But if it's prices along with restrictions...I know plenty that drive or take the t into work. If the t is running late they'll drive, it's either or. If you don't want coronavirus and driving is a tad cheaper they'll drive. That's fine on an individual level but that times tens if not hundreds of thousands can add up.

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by Bridge781

Hmm I guess I don’t see traffic as being that bad this summer. People are going to be more nervous to be spend money because of the stock market and the economy. Also people will likely be afraid to travel due to coronavirus.

Which will likely be a non issue during the summer.