Coronavirus in Massachusetts (granite, house, buy)

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

Predicting doom every time the noise goes up helps even less.

Beyond that, it’s pretty clear we need vaccination and honest conversations about risk tolerance. Right now, the two loudest voices in the National COVID debate are the “COVID isn’t real” camp and the “not a single death is acceptable” crowd.

Yes, jay, honest conversations. You are still in denial regarding what happened last year with the schools.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by redplum33

Yes, jay, honest conversations. You are still in denial regarding what happened last year with the schools.

What happened last year with the schools? Kids actually learned stuff and didn’t cause any significantly above-community levels of transmission. You haven’t posted a single shred of evidence and have only questioned the actual peer-reviewed journal articles I’ve referenced. At least for the last school year your main objection—that the articles are too dated—is completely invalid. Delta didn’t effect last school year.

Or do I have to keep trying to argue with my data vs your conjecture? You definitely seem to be in the “facts if they support me, otherwise fear and uncertainty” camp.

Here’s one last link to the CDC’s conclusions: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...2_schools.html

Not that you’ll believe me or them or really anything.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

What happened last year with the schools?

Look no further than the actual numbers starting in September 2020. Must be a coincidence.

If you and porterhouse can't handle rach's "scary stories" (aka REALITY) then I don't know what to tell you. Maybe go watch some cartoons?

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by redplum33

Look no further than the actual numbers starting in September 2020. Must be a coincidence.

If you and porterhouse can't handle rach's "scary stories" (aka REALITY) then I don't know what to tell you. Maybe go watch some cartoons?

I mean, a random persons interpretation of numbers means a lot less to me than the CDC and actual scientists. The 2020-2021 school year is old enough that CDC can say stuff like:

Findings from several studies suggest that SARS-CoV-2 transmission among students is relatively rare, particularly when prevention strategies are in place.

How is your hyphothesis working out in 2021? What has caused the decline in cases in Massachusetts since school started? Why is it going to explode when it’s been a slight decline since October?

It’s not that I can’t handle her “scary stories”, it’s that I don’t think she’s presented enough evidence to convince me that they’re true. I think there is a limited tolerance for alarm and it should be used judiciously. If there is better justification for sounding the alarm right now I’m open to changing my mind.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

I mean, a random persons interpretation of numbers means a lot less to me than the CDC and actual scientists. The 2020-2021 school year is old enough that CDC can say stuff like:

The numbers don't lie. Again, must be a coincidence that the numbers started skyrocketing in Sept 2020. A coincidence that was predicted well in advance.

Originally Posted by jayrandom

How is your hyphothesis working out in 2021? What has caused the decline in cases in Massachusetts since school started? Why is it going to explode when it’s been a slight decline since October?

The numbers have been going up nationwide.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

I think there is a limited tolerance for alarm and it should be used judiciously. If there is better justification for sounding the alarm right now I’m open to changing my mind.

When you combine the winter season (holidays, people are indoors, etc.) along with vaccines from ~April wearing off (or having worn off), it could get ugly. We're starting to see the numbers go up.

Nobody can make perfect predictions, but the signs are there.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by redplum33

The numbers don't lie. Again, must be a coincidence that the numbers started skyrocketing in Sept 2020. A coincidence that was predicted well in advance.




The numbers have been going up nationwide.

Numbers don't lie, it's just that what the numbers say is often hard to decipher. That's why scientific evidence requires more than just looking at something and saying "school started in September 2020, cases started going up in September 2020, so schools are dangerous". Actual controlled studies say that while schools do contribute to transmission, they are broadly similar to the community at large and in some cases less of a problem.

And so you had a theory that schools would be the cause of another surge in 2021 when the numbers show a peak shortly after schools started. Unless you have some reason to explain those numbers (both nationwide and in Massachusetts), you have to reject your initial theory that it's all about the schools. Especially since the published evidence also rejects that theory.

So it's reasonable to conclude that it must have been a coincidence in 2020. Or perhaps it was the fact that schools were open in 2020 allowed adults to generally go back to their normal lives and it was those adults going back to work that were the real culprit. Anecdotally, schools were the safest place for kids to be in 2020-2021. The largest spikes in our district were after breaks, particularly Thanksgiving and Christmas. That is coincident with the MA data from 2020-2021. Big spikes after Thanksgiving and Christmas. If anything, we should keep the kids in school and the adults at home.

Originally Posted by redplum33

When you combine the winter season (holidays, people are indoors, etc.) along with vaccines from ~April wearing off (or having worn off), it could get ugly. We're starting to see the numbers go up.

Nobody can make perfect predictions, but the signs are there.

The signs were there this fall, too. "It could get ugly" is of course true, but it has always been true. In the spring of 2020, I think people were more willing to assume the worst and go from there. It's been 18 months, it's time to assume what is most likely and go from there, instead.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

Numbers don't lie, it's just that what the numbers say is often hard to decipher. That's why scientific evidence requires more than just looking at something and saying "school started in September 2020, cases started going up in September 2020, so schools are dangerous". Actual controlled studies say that while schools do contribute to transmission, they are broadly similar to the community at large and in some cases less of a problem.

And so you had a theory that schools would be the cause of another surge in 2021 when the numbers show a peak shortly after schools started. Unless you have some reason to explain those numbers (both nationwide and in Massachusetts), you have to reject your initial theory that it's all about the schools. Especially since the published evidence also rejects that theory.

So it's reasonable to conclude that it must have been a coincidence in 2020. Or perhaps it was the fact that schools were open in 2020 allowed adults to generally go back to their normal lives and it was those adults going back to work that were the real culprit. Anecdotally, schools were the safest place for kids to be in 2020-2021. The largest spikes in our district were after breaks, particularly Thanksgiving and Christmas. That is coincident with the MA data from 2020-2021. Big spikes after Thanksgiving and Christmas. If anything, we should keep the kids in school and the adults at home.



The signs were there this fall, too. "It could get ugly" is of course true, but it has always been true. In the spring of 2020, I think people were more willing to assume the worst and go from there. It's been 18 months, it's time to assume what is most likely and go from there, instead.

You're putting words in my mouth.

Bottom line, jay, is that it's nearly impossible to have an honest discussion with you about this. I'm not sure about the details, but it's clear that having your kid at home causes problems for you.

I don't think you need to worry about schools closing. Why are you in panic mode?

[msRB311]

After two years of this if people are still keeping kids home then yes I could imagine they are having problems.

[htfdcolt]

I don't buy that it's going to get ugly this winter. We are not in the same place we were in last year at this time, not by a long shot. Most of New England is vaxxed, many (like myself) are getting boosted, and now kids will start to get protected too. And many locales still have their own indoor mask mandates in place. Cases may go up, but the severity (hospitalizations and deaths) should not.