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I have extended family in the Marshfield/Norwell/Duxbury area who have been there for decades. They raised their kids there, and a few of those kids who have since married are deciding to stay in the area. I think that says a lot.
I have extended family in the Marshfield/Norwell/Duxbury area who have been there for decades. They raised their kids there, and a few of those kids who have since married are deciding to stay in the area. I think that says a lot.
Right but that's if they can afford it and if they aren't inhering a house to start with. We can't expect that single people are going to pay 400K + for a house if they can telecommute for much less. The schools aren't bad but they are largely the same and the fact that you can go to out of district means you don't really have to pay the "extra" for other communities.
The lack of population growth and student growth is apparent nationwide. This is why communities have to shift away from schools as a form of validation of house value.
Right but that's if they can afford it and if they aren't inhering a house to start with. We can't expect that single people are going to pay 400K + for a house if they can telecommute for much less. The schools aren't bad but they are largely the same and the fact that you can go to out of district means you don't really have to pay the "extra" for other communities.
The lack of population growth and student growth is apparent nationwide. This is why communities have to shift away from schools as a form of validation of house value.
This is nonsense. 20% down on a $400k house, the payment is $1,371 with today’s 3.125 30 year fixed low points rate.
People pay extra to live where they want to live. That’s easily within the range of someone who had a “hard” major in college with good grades after 5 years working. The Boston problem is that prices are at least 2x higher than that.
This is nonsense. 20% down on a $400k house, the payment is $1,371 with today’s 3.125 30 year fixed low points rate.
People pay extra to live where they want to live. That’s easily within the range of someone who had a “hard” major in college with good grades after 5 years working. The Boston problem is that prices are at least 2x higher than that.
Certainly people can pay extra when it's mostly couples buying the houses. I can tell you though as a fact that much of my high school class left the area. A fair amount left the state, some left the region and a few left the country.
You can talk about paying extra but when you add in student loan debt it is not always that easy. A woman I grew up with became a full MD and even though much of her education was paid by the program(mother worked for BU I think) she still left for Maryland. I know a progressive that took a b line right for SF. Some more artsy people to Colorado Springs. anyone in the military had to leave and in academia the vast majority left back to their home countries (pre covid). Degrees stand out more when you are in an area where they aren't as easy to get.
It's hardly non sense when places aren't growing and school districts aren't. If a SFM with a family of four gets sold to a family of four that is not growth. Just like if a new car is sold to a current car driver with a trade in that isn't new growth. You have to have actual new house development in order to claim that. It's not like there's this huge amount of empty houses along the south shore. Unless it was some time share between tenants this is extremely rare.
Maybe someone could find out what would be the maximum amount of people allowed per SFH per town and then looking at the number of houses what the maximum would be and the how much lower the current numbers are. That difference should illustrate what the potential for new growth is.
We can't expect that single people are going to pay 400K + for a house if they can telecommute for much less.
Depends on what field they're in and what their priorities are. I know some people who are paying close to that for luxury condos in Quincy. A younger member of my extended family (decent paying job with Mom and Dad kicking in for the downpayment) chose to stay in the Marshfield area because many of her friends and her family are there. For all the talk about younger folks fleeing the area there are quite a few who stay put. It's completely normal in my neck of the woods.
Quote:
The lack of population growth and student growth is apparent nationwide. This is why communities have to shift away from schools as a form of validation of house value.
I think schools will always have an impact, though. It'll never top location, location, location though.
Depends on what field they're in and what their priorities are. I know some people who are paying close to that for luxury condos in Quincy. A younger member of my extended family (decent paying job with Mom and Dad kicking in for the downpayment) chose to stay in the Marshfield area because many of her friends and her family are there. For all the talk about younger folks fleeing the area there are quite a few who stay put. It's completely normal in my neck of the woods.
I think schools will always have an impact, though. It'll never top location, location, location though.
People will always pay more for water front, provided the flood insurance isn't that big of an issue.
The thing with friends and family is ultimately older family passes away and if there isn't enough jobs they'll go somewhere else. That's why higher priced areas are getting hit on both ends. If it's cheaper for the employee to live or employer to operate that's what will happen. I was listening to podcasts this morning and it mentioned a startup that isn't even having an office. They found employees in western mass and the upper midwest with more experience for the same money.
the thing is if I take an old school high school yearbook from the late 90's onward and start searching facebook and linkedin they didn't really stay. For all the talk the suburbs are booming we aren't seeing population increases and new houses being made. Just because someone replaced the Formica with Granite and the wood with Trek decking doesn't mean it's booming. We thought we'd have a baby boom after 9/11 (didn't happen) we thought we'd get one after the 2008 recession (also didn't happen). Add in student debt, costs of daycare and raising a kid in general and people leave to cheaper areas. Retirees then leave because of the weather. It's not like the area is awash in jobs. Most go to Boston for jobs so if you could find a cheaper place with an easier commute you'd be apt to leave.
People will always pay more for water front, provided the flood insurance isn't that big of an issue.
The thing with friends and family is ultimately older family passes away and if there isn't enough jobs they'll go somewhere else. That's why higher priced areas are getting hit on both ends. If it's cheaper for the employee to live or employer to operate that's what will happen. I was listening to podcasts this morning and it mentioned a startup that isn't even having an office. They found employees in western mass and the upper midwest with more experience for the same money.
the thing is if I take an old school high school yearbook from the late 90's onward and start searching facebook and linkedin they didn't really stay. For all the talk the suburbs are booming we aren't seeing population increases and new houses being made. Just because someone replaced the Formica with Granite and the wood with Trek decking doesn't mean it's booming. We thought we'd have a baby boom after 9/11 (didn't happen) we thought we'd get one after the 2008 recession (also didn't happen). Add in student debt, costs of daycare and raising a kid in general and people leave to cheaper areas. Retirees then leave because of the weather. It's not like the area is awash in jobs. Most go to Boston for jobs so if you could find a cheaper place with an easier commute you'd be apt to leave.
Funny then how Plymouth County still managed to grow by 5% over the past decade, while Hampden added only 0.5%.
right but that growth has slowed significantly. Having grown up there I can tell you it's like taking a foot off the gas.
You can't say a place is booming when it simply isn't getting what it had before. 60's, 70's and even 80's it was double digits but then dropped dramatically in the 90's onward. I didn't say hamden county was booming. Most of western mass is consolidating to springfield. The berkshires shrank and now Franklin stopped growing. Springfield gained a bit but it's just people moving from other places in western mass. You can't say that all towns grow or shrink at the same rate. Brockton has been flat for about 40 years, which is better than shrinking but it can create some tension when some areas grow faster than others. It certainly isn't the same situation as a century ago.
So I say a town isn't growing or booming and then I get a reply of a larger level (county) over a larger time (ten years).
right but that growth has slowed significantly. Having grown up there I can tell you it's like taking a foot off the gas.
You can't say a place is booming when it simply isn't getting what it had before. 60's, 70's and even 80's it was double digits but then dropped dramatically in the 90's onward. I didn't say hamden county was booming. Most of western mass is consolidating to springfield. The berkshires shrank and now Franklin stopped growing. Springfield gained a bit but it's just people moving from other places in western mass. You can't say that all towns grow or shrink at the same rate. Brockton has been flat for about 40 years, which is better than shrinking but it can create some tension when some areas grow faster than others. It certainly isn't the same situation as a century ago.
So I say a town isn't growing or booming and then I get a reply of a larger level (county) over a larger time (ten years).
Population growth has slowed EVERYWHERE. I never said it was booming, but you constantly portray it as being in a state of decline which is clearly downright false. Point is, Plymouth County is slow growing and at a healthy rate while holding with the state's rate of growth. Western MA is NOT, neither is the Cape. Who wants a population boom? Isn't it crowded enough? The reason for going by county, is that way we can avoid splitting hairs over US Census vs. town census, estimates vs. actual... You can also have a single town as an outlier, which doesn't really tell much when you are really blanketing the whole South Shore region with your assessment. Again, the South Shore remains in a much position looking to the future, than Western Mass.
Population growth has slowed EVERYWHERE. I never said it was booming, but you constantly portray it as being in a state of decline which is clearly downright false. Point is, Plymouth County is slow growing and at a healthy rate while holding with the state's rate of growth. Western MA is NOT, neither is the Cape. Who wants a population boom? Isn't it crowded enough? The reason for going by county, is that way we can avoid splitting hairs over US Census vs. town census, estimates vs. actual... You can also have a single town as an outlier, which doesn't really tell much when you are really blanketing the whole South Shore region with your assessment. Again, the South Shore remains in a much position looking to the future, than Western Mass.
Everywhere? I wouldn't say that. My point is that population is largely based on a few basic
1) Birth rates - I think we can agree that birth rates have been low for quite some time
2) Immigration - Between the last president and COVID this is unlikely to change anywhere
3) Domestic migration - obviously this is happening. We've seen some leave NYC and especially SF.
Who wants a population boom? There's plenty of open space in the state to build and rebuild. Town census is better than federal census because the grant application process is constantly dependent on it.
Much of the aid that cities and towns receive is largely based on population growth.
Chapter 70 - School financial aid - Less students means less aid
Chapter 90 - Road reimbursement for state routes. Less cars on the road and less employers means less aid
COA Foundation grant - number of seniors. I think everyone is going to take a hit due to covid from this
Circuit Breaker - special ed aid. Extremely complicated to say the least.
Then factor in businesses and the demographics on age of their stakeholders. The Berkshires has aged out and it reduced it to mostly Airbnb's and NY'ers getting second homes in the area as people couldn't find much for work.
"Of the 9,779 census forms mailed to households, 5,304 were returned and 4,475 were not. The 2010 Federal Census numbered Bridgewater’s population, including the Correctional
Institute facilities and Bridgewater State University students living in Bridgewater, at
26,563. Because of the limited number of returned local censuses, the Town count is lower
than the Federal count. "
well obviously that 5% is based on the university and the prison...nice try. I also know this because that's where I attended and I have family in the area.
So in approximately ten years Marshfield has grown 1.5%, Scituate is 1.5%, Halifax is 0.2%, Whitman is flat, Rockland is -1%, Pembroke is negative. Hardly outliers when there's about six of them.
Plymouth, Hingham and Abington have grown quite a bit. it's at about 10%, those are your "boom" towns. It might be interesting to see who those three grew so much and why the others are lagging. It can't just be waterfront property.
Much position? The fact of the matter is the cost structure of the south shore makes it very hard for small businesses to run. You have literally no manufacturing (distribution and making beer doesn't count). Retail had declined as well, even before covid. It's great that a 300,000 house went to say 550,000 in 15 years but it came at a cost of what most people would consider part of small town new england setting. The default plan was just to get housing and it did but then it stalled. It's hard to say a place is unique and special when it is largely seen as a homogeneous blob of cookie cutter houses.
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