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Geoff's primary point is not suggesting Longmeadow is anything other than a nice middle class town with excellent schools and good housing stock. He is suggesting that in an imagined world where individuals are untethered from local job markets, why would individuals choose Longmeadow?
The primary value prop of Longmeadow is being *the* Springfield suburb for high income individuals working in Springfield. The housing stock and schools are secondary to this fact.
The question is whether individuals untethered from the Springfield job market would choose Longmeadow over, for example, a town like Lincoln RI which has a comparable COL, reasonably good schools, and nets you immediate access to vibrant Providence and a tolerable infrequent Boston commute. Not a fan of RI? Fine, how does North Hampton NH work for you? Or Essex MA? Or Kennebunk ME? Or the mid-Cape? There are so so many options when untethered from local job markets.
Like ... who is sitting in a Zoom meeting right now thinking "If this remote working becomes permanent, I am totally cashing out of this Wakefield home and buying in Longmeadow!"?
Last edited by Shrewsburried; 03-08-2021 at 09:45 AM..
Geoff's primary point is not suggesting Longmeadow is anything other than a nice middle class town with excellent schools and good housing stock. He is suggesting that in an imagined world where individuals are untethered from local job markets, why would individuals choose Longmeadow?
The primary value prop of Longmeadow is being *the* Springfield suburb for high income individuals working in Springfield. The housing stock and schools are secondary to this fact.
The question is whether individuals untethered from the Springfield job market would choose Longmeadow over, for example, a town like Lincoln RI which has a comparable COL, reasonably good schools, and nets you immediate access to vibrant Providence and a tolerable infrequent Boston commute. Not a fan of RI? Fine, how does North Hampton NH work for you? Or Essex MA? Or Kennebunk ME? Or the mid-Cape? There are so so many options when untethered from local job markets.
Like ... who is sitting in a Zoom meeting right now thinking "If this remote working becomes permanent, I am totally cashing out of this Wakefield home and buying in Longmeadow!"?
Well the tax rate is high there's no arguing against that. You can certainly get more for your money but five figure property taxes might not be out of the question.
Eastern mass has much more in the way of traffic. As mentioned before as things come back they'll come back in smaller things before larger. The Big E probably won't happen this year. But I could argue the same on professional sports leagues, broadway plays etc.
You can also say the same with West Hartford and Hartford. It's nearly the same argument. I've had conversations with pension board administrators and to be frank many stay the area. They might have second homes (cape mostly) but they still live near springfield mostly due to health care, family and friends. Baystate is a huge system and then lump in Mercy and Shriners. Telemedicine is fine but I'd argue you still need some sort of examination in person at a given point. Drug store clinics can do a fair amount but not everything. Add in the museums, the libraries, the parks, a ton of golf courses, a ton of senior centers and maybe the occasional enrichment class at a community college and you see why some retirees tend to stay.
Geoff's primary point is not suggesting Longmeadow is anything other than a nice middle class town with excellent schools and good housing stock. He is suggesting that in an imagined world where individuals are untethered from local job markets, why would individuals choose Longmeadow?
The primary value prop of Longmeadow is being *the* Springfield suburb for high income individuals working in Springfield. The housing stock and schools are secondary to this fact.
The question is whether individuals untethered from the Springfield job market would choose Longmeadow over, for example, a town like Lincoln RI which has a comparable COL, reasonably good schools, and nets you immediate access to vibrant Providence and a tolerable infrequent Boston commute. Not a fan of RI? Fine, how does North Hampton NH work for you? Or Essex MA? Or Kennebunk ME? Or the mid-Cape? There are so so many options when untethered from local job markets.
Like ... who is sitting in a Zoom meeting right now thinking "If this remote working becomes permanent, I am totally cashing out of this Wakefield home and buying in Longmeadow!"?
This, exactly.
Working 90% remote, 2 hours away isn't a big deal. Working almost 100% remote, a couple thousand miles is possible if it's a competitive city pair with nonstop service. I've had business cards that said Denver on them.
Working 90% remote, 2 hours away isn't a big deal. Working almost 100% remote, a couple thousand miles is possible if it's a competitive city pair with nonstop service. I've had business cards that said Denver on them.
In the past I worked for a company that although some might say is boston based their HQ was moved to Norwell. But here's the other part, the centralized department out of braintree was dissolved because much of the work would be better decentralized rather than in one central office. Hundreds were let go. Why bother having a building in an expensive part of the country if you can pay a few part timers more hours per office (over 100 offices). That was about 15 or so years ago.
"As of March 13, 2020, all Council employees have been directed and authorized to work remotely until further notice
Post-COVID: up to 50% of the Position’s duties may be conducted outside of the Council’s office, predominantly at locations within Greater Boston and including Council member offices, State House and other public facilities"
the ad is nice but they didn't exactly say when is post covid. The lack of a date is contingent on what the Governors study is saying. If state employees can go hybrid forever then it pretty means anything else can as well. That's alot of lobbyists. there have been people that do move due to higher costs. The back and forth with academia also has a significant impact. 200 students at UMass Amherst were just suspended and might get kicked out of their dorms. I don't know if anything in Boston would be as high.
As I mentioned earlier people can tolerate something being closed or open as long as they know ahead of time. If we live life with this wack a mole mentality of cases and isolation it's going to get taxing, even post vaccine.
In terms of seeing how places are doing it might help to ask people that work for industries that serve offices. Is the vending machine food in your employer months old? Are moving companies seeing more rentals? How many employer are immigrant based? Green cards are sort of being allowed now but the feds say they aren't testing migrants at the border?!? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-m...dministration/
Geoff's primary point is not suggesting Longmeadow is anything other than a nice middle class town with excellent schools and good housing stock. He is suggesting that in an imagined world where individuals are untethered from local job markets, why would individuals choose Longmeadow?
The primary value prop of Longmeadow is being *the* Springfield suburb for high income individuals working in Springfield. The housing stock and schools are secondary to this fact.
The question is whether individuals untethered from the Springfield job market would choose Longmeadow over, for example, a town like Lincoln RI which has a comparable COL, reasonably good schools, and nets you immediate access to vibrant Providence and a tolerable infrequent Boston commute. Not a fan of RI? Fine, how does North Hampton NH work for you? Or Essex MA? Or Kennebunk ME? Or the mid-Cape? There are so so many options when untethered from local job markets.
Like ... who is sitting in a Zoom meeting right now thinking "If this remote working becomes permanent, I am totally cashing out of this Wakefield home and buying in Longmeadow!"?
Because there aren't any $250k houses in Lincoln, RI or any of the other places you mentioned. For whatever reason there are some in Longmeadow.
Because there aren't any $250k houses in Lincoln, RI or any of the other places you mentioned. For whatever reason there are some in Longmeadow.
Fair. Lost track of the plot when we started imagining a post-Covid economy and rising interest rates.
While I generally agree with Geoff's thesis regarding current valuations, I'm not sure the exposure is that high on a $250-270K Longmeadow SFH. It's much harder to pop a bubble which hasn't yet inflated; i.e., price gains have been extremely modest compared to the inner 495.
Because there aren't any $250k houses in Lincoln, RI or any of the other places you mentioned. For whatever reason there are some in Longmeadow.
The cheaper houses shown in Longmeadow were older, more ordinary houses located on out of the way streets. There are some lower priced houses, for instance by the Connecticut state line. There's nothing run down in Longmeadow, but there are a couple of small areas that are just ordinary. I think Longmeadow prices stopped going up because Springfield is not what it used to be. It's left the suburbs isolated without much of a city to be a suburb of. (I grew up in Longmeadow and most areas are lovely.)
I think Longmeadow prices stopped going up because Springfield is not what it used to be. It's left the suburbs isolated without much of a city to be a suburb of. (I grew up in Longmeadow and most areas are lovely.)
Seems probable ... particularly when Hartford 'burbs like Avon, Farmington, Simsbury, etc. are still relatively affordable. There's not enough a tax advantage to warrant a longer commute, IMO.
Last edited by Shrewsburried; 03-08-2021 at 10:54 PM..
Seems probable ... particularly when Hartford 'burbs like Avon, Farmington, Simsbury, etc. are still relatively affordable. There's not enough a tax advantage to warrant a longer commute, IMO.
They’re also not a very pleasant commute to Springfield. In normal times, Hartford has a rush hour so you’d be taking back roads to avoid it.
Anyways, this all diverges from the $250k house since houses in the gold plated Hartford suburbs cost more than that and property taxes are ugly. In places where housing prices are tied to local wages and interest rates, it’s pretty clear that interest rates will have a big impact on prices. Zillow keeps bumping the value of my house. I’m not waterfront or behind the gate of a summer community so the person buying my house will probably have a mortgage and W-2 income to pay the mortgage. Look at the 30 year treasury chart. Mortgage rates are still historically low but it’s unlikely we will see sub-3% rates again in 2021. Boomers stopped selling their houses during the pandemic. Millennials looking to buy with W-2 money bid up prices because they qualified for bigger loans. Put mortgage rates at 4% and their math changes. Lots of Boomers will be selling eventually increasing the supply. There will be lots of $250k houses then.
They’re also not a very pleasant commute to Springfield. In normal times, Hartford has a rush hour so you’d be taking back roads to avoid it.
Anyways, this all diverges from the $250k house since houses in the gold plated Hartford suburbs cost more than that and property taxes are ugly. In places where housing prices are tied to local wages and interest rates, it’s pretty clear that interest rates will have a big impact on prices. Zillow keeps bumping the value of my house. I’m not waterfront or behind the gate of a summer community so the person buying my house will probably have a mortgage and W-2 income to pay the mortgage. Look at the 30 year treasury chart. Mortgage rates are still historically low but it’s unlikely we will see sub-3% rates again in 2021. Boomers stopped selling their houses during the pandemic. Millennials looking to buy with W-2 money bid up prices because they qualified for bigger loans. Put mortgage rates at 4% and their math changes. Lots of Boomers will be selling eventually increasing the supply. There will be lots of $250k houses then.
Outside of the Big E or maybe Bright Nights the traffic along I91 in Mass and CT is not really an issue, certainly not as bad as 128. 91 is practically a straight line. It's faster to go from springfield to greenfield than north adams to greenfield largely because of this, straight line and federal highway vs state route.
I agree on the rates. At this point I have to wonder who isn't selling beyond this spring/summer might be in for a surprise in the fall and winter.
In CT they aren't expecting a rush back to the offices any time soon.
WFH is more normalized now. This wasn't weeks or months but a year or more.The City of Hartford unlike Springfield has not required city employees to come back to the offices as of yet. If they feel more comfortable at home administration can stay home.
A 250K house will be much easier to find in central and western mass and CT. Eastern mass would be very hard to say the least. North shore, south shore, boston proper, the cape and islands etc. Might be a bit better for a condo but HOA fees can add up.
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