Charlie Baker Will Not Seek Reelection in 2022 (Haverhill, Pittsfield: 2014, income)

[WestRiverTraveler]

Originally Posted by lrfox

I just don't see it. I think a best case scenario for Diehl against Healey is something to the tune of 60-40 in favor of Healey which would be a better showing than Trump in either election and better than he did against Liz Warren in 2018, but still hardly a competitive race.

Successful or competitive GOP candidates in recent statewide elections were moderate enough to appeal to the center-left (Romney, Baker) and/or ran against historically bad candidates (Brown). Diehl won't touch the center-left. He's been largely dismissed by anyone outside of the MA Republican Party. He's no Romney or Baker and he's not even a Scott Brown. Healey certainly has her detractors in MA, but she's not as far to the left as a number of the other names being thrown around. She's also not nearly as bad a campaigner nor as devoid of personality as someone like Martha Coakley.

Diehl will win all of the same votes that went for Trump and maybe a handful of others on the center-right who view Healey as "too far left," but in MA, that's about 35-40% percent of voters on a good day. Diehl was trounced by Liz Warren (about as unpopular a Dem as you'll find in MA) a few years ago and I just don't see how it could be expected that he'd perform significantly better in 2022. Even against Healey.

I voted for Baker three times and campaigned for him in 2010. I campaigned for Brown and voted for him twice. There is ZERO chance I would vote for Diehl. Even prior to Trump, the far right drove me out of the MA GOP, but watching MA Republicans pucker up Trump was the final straw. Dan Winslow didn't get sniff when he ran for Senate in the primary. Diehl ran away with the nomination last time out. There will not be moderate nominee in 2022 and whoever it is will get crushed.

[robr2]

Originally Posted by Lampert

That's what I meant. Who are reasonable candidates running for the dem that sit to the right of Healey?

Depends on what you consider reasonable? Healey is the least progressive of the current Dems in the race. The Bernie Bros, Markey-ites, and the Wu backers might find her not progressive enough.

Walsh would be the most centrist Dem in the race. He has great relationships with both labor and business and he's a real local guy. Does the latter count for much? In the past 50 years, only 2 native Massholians have been elected Governor - Dukakis and Cellucci.

[CaseyB]

Originally Posted by robr2

In the past 50 years, only 2 native Massholians have been elected Governor - Dukakis and Cellucci.

Ed King was a native.

[Lampert]

Originally Posted by robr2

Walsh would be the most centrist Dem in the race. He has great relationships with both labor and business and he's a real local guy.

Great relationship? You mean corruption?

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by Lampert

Great relationship? You mean corruption?

I must admit my view of Walsh changed, when that whole film crew thing went to trial and the "intimidators" were acquitted.

[robr2]

Originally Posted by CaseyB

Ed King was a native.

I did miss him. So 3 in 50 years for a total of 20 years in the last 5 decades.

[robr2]

Originally Posted by Lampert

Great relationship? You mean corruption?

From what I've read, there was trepidation by the business community as to how Walsh would treat them. In reality, Walsh didn't get in the way of what business wanted to do.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by Lampert

A guy raised in the corporate world is a leftie nowadays? Patrick worked For Texaco, Chevron, Coca-Cola...and is the equivalent of who..Bernie?
Who is a moderate dem to you then? I am talking about today, not someone active 20-30 years ago.
And to be clear, by moderate I mean someone that stand toward the center of their own party, not someone that stands to the far right of the party. Not a moderate nation-wide, since those people are extremely unlikely to win a primary. So Baker may be a moderate overall but is definitely on the (far?) left of the GOP.

One's background does not guarantee a political position. There are lefties from the corporate world just as there are righties out of ivory tower academia. When I say moderate, I mean moderate. One that doesn't stray too far in either direction. Both parties have gone off the rails, at this point I consider "center" for either party to be extreme and anything but moderate.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by lrfox

I just don't see it. I think a best case scenario for Diehl against Healey is something to the tune of 60-40 in favor of Healey which would be a better showing than Trump in either election and better than he did against Liz Warren in 2018, but still hardly a competitive race.

Successful or competitive GOP candidates in recent statewide elections were moderate enough to appeal to the center-left (Romney, Baker) and/or ran against historically bad candidates (Brown). Diehl won't touch the center-left. He's been largely dismissed by anyone outside of the MA Republican Party. He's no Romney or Baker and he's not even a Scott Brown. Healey certainly has her detractors in MA, but she's not as far to the left as a number of the other names being thrown around. She's also not nearly as bad a campaigner nor as devoid of personality as someone like Martha Coakley.

Diehl will win all of the same votes that went for Trump and maybe a handful of others on the center-right who view Healey as "too far left," but in MA, that's about 35-40% percent of voters on a good day. Diehl was trounced by Liz Warren (about as unpopular a Dem as you'll find in MA) a few years ago and I just don't see how it could be expected that he'd perform significantly better in 2022. Even against Healey.

As has already been said on this thread, Middle Massachusetts votes with its wallets. Healey has developed a reputation for judicial activism along with some massive blunders or borderline bogus lawsuits (Exxon-Mobile anyone?) that has cost taxpayers a boatload. And then there was the blocking of the desperately needed LNG pipeline of which she had quite a bit of involvement in. Stuff like that. This grandstanding is a huge turnoff to Middle Massachusetts, and I feel many might hold their nose and vote for a "Trumpie" if it means their taxes have less of a chance of being raised.

[bostongymjunkie]

Originally Posted by Lampert

A black republican is probably a moderate dem to a chunk of GOP voters.

So all black Republicans are now the same? Why would that be?