"Surviving climate" change in Miami (South Beach, Gulf Stream: real estate market, insurance)

[WRnative]

Rising sea levels, porous limestone bedrock, more extreme heat and humidity are among the issues raised in this article.


<<We’re unlikely to see the 20-story swells that Capra described, as most scientists today predict 5 to 6 feet of sea-level rise in South Florida by 2100. Yet climate change very much remains an existential threat to Miami, with its effects increasingly apparent today. The city’s surrounding waters rose 6 inches within the past 25 years—some of the fastest rates globally—and “sunny day flooding” (which is exactly what it sounds like) is up 400 percent since 2006.


Absent large-scale adaptation, things will become increasingly catastrophic for Miami. Worst-case projections for 2100 from the research group Climate Central show South Beach completely inundated and generally uninhabitable, while downtown Miami and nearby residential neighborhoods could experience near-constant street and first-floor flooding. Under this scenario, nationally-critical infrastructure, including Miami International Airport’s runways and the Port of Miami’s cargo docks, will disappear. Additional saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne Aquifer, which is already happening, could deprive South Florida of its primary source for drinking water. And tides could eventually encroach Miami from both the Atlantic and the Everglades.


If these dreary, calamitous predictions come to fruition, they mean billions of dollars in damages and property loss, climate gentrification and increased inequality in higher-elevation neighborhoods such as Little Haiti, and untold political and social instability as nearly 1 million people become displaced. Eventually, a direct hit by a mega-hurricane could simply wipe an increasingly dilapidated Miami off the map....


Aside from rising tides and storm surges, research suggests Miami residents will sweat through 100 to 200 days of deadly heat by 2100.>>



https://slate.com/technology/2022/05...-survival.html


The article doesn't address who will pay the cost of massive infrastructure projects and constant pumping of massive amounts of water.


Nor does it address the most obvious necessity -- a firm commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuel consumption ASAP and providing global leadership to the effort.

[roadtrip75]

Originally Posted by WRnative

untold political and social instability as nearly 1 million people become displaced

We could easily displace that many immigrants back to their home countries.


In the process we'd reduce our carbon footprint.

[WRnative]

The Economist is a British economics, financial and political magazine, founded in 1843, with global coverage.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist



This is one of the Economist's U.S. "Lexington" columns written in the aftermath of Tropical Storm Alex, which inundated parts of Miami:



https://www.economist.com/united-sta...bmarine-future


Same article outside the paywall:


<<The threat to Miami from rising sea levels is well known. South Florida’s seas have risen nearly a foot (30 cm) in a century, higher than the global average. Parts of Miami are close to sea level, so there is a risk of flooding at high tide. As the ice sheets melt, sea levels are expected to rise a few feet more by 2060; Maybe six by 2100. Yet this disaster is half the city’s problem.


Whenever the water level rises, groundwater seeps through the porous limestone on which it sits. This phenomenon, visible as rain in the Little River region, causes additional flooding during storms that are accelerating climate change. Sure enough, over the next 48 hours, Tropical Storm Alex dropped 11 inches of water on Miami-Dade, an area of ​​3m people that includes Miami. Its roads turned into rivers, dotted with semi-submerged cars and damming with runoff from thousands of septic tanks, whose adsorption systems are often below the water table.>>



https://funancial.news/miamis-submarine-future/


<<Miami has no answer to this flood from outside and inside. A sea wall, similar to dams in the Netherlands, could make groundwater flooding worse, causing it to stop flowing. The best course is a mixture of partial fixes. These would include investing heavily in practical solutions, such as the expansion of sewer systems; long-term planning for higher sea-levels, including rethinking building codes and the livability of parts of Miami; and aggressive steps to reduce global emissions. Yet none of this is happening to the degree necessary because of Miami’s third disaster: a US governance system that appears incapable of adapting to climate-induced disasters, which are projected to hit the counter by the end of the century. The year would cost $2trn.>>

[Corrie22]

most scientists??......5 or 6 feet by 2100.....that's 80 years...8 decades

what do these "most scientists" predict that's going to make the rate of sea level rise change that much? a asteroid hit?

it can't be global warming....global warming has had no effect on the rate of sea level rise in Miami

....for the past 100 years....the rate of sea level rise in Miami has been flat consistent

less than 1 foot every 100 years...~1 inch a decade.....global warming has not changed that one bit

global warming better get it's act together if it's going to change from 1 inch a decade....to almost a foot a decade

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sl...tml?id=8723214

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

most scientists??......5 or 6 feet by 2100.....that's 80 years...8 decades

what do these "most scientists" predict that's going to make the rate of sea level rise change that much? a asteroid hit?

it can't be global warming....global warming has had no effect on the rate of sea level rise in Miami

....for the past 100 years....the rate of sea level rise in Miami has been flat consistent

less than 1 foot every 100 years...~1 inch a decade.....global warming has not changed that one bit

global warming better get it's act together if it's going to change from 1 inch a decade....to almost a foot a decade

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sl...tml?id=8723214

Ridiculous Big Lie climate change denier propaganda. As has been repeatedly explained to you as you've continued to promote this obvious deception for years in this forum, and which should be obvious to anybody with a good high school education who can read graphs, you confuse a mean average change since 1930 with the accelerating sea level rise, especially since 2010, clearly shown in the link that you provided.


The 2019 sea level rise projections of the Southeast Florida Climate Compact shows the multi-county sea level rise projections for southeast Florida based on IPCC and NOAA projections. The projection for 2040 is for between 10 and 21 inches.


https://southeastfloridaclimatecompa...e-projections/


Here's what Dr. Harold Wanless, former chairman of the Univ. of Miami geological sciences department and one of Florida's leading experts on sea level rise, and who believes the above projections are too conservative, wrote in 2018.


<<
Every section of coast has regional influences that add to or subtract from the GMSL rise. For South Florida, our future “total relative sea level” rise will include an addition of 15 to 20 percent from projected slowing of the Florida Current/Gulf Stream and 20 percent to 52 percent from redistribution of ocean mass as the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt.


Their huge ice masses pull water toward them. As they melt and their mass diminishes, their gravitational attraction diminishes and ocean water redistributes.


This means that South Florida should add 35 percent to 72 percent additional rise to the GMSL projections. The total relative sea-level rise for South Florida by 2046 could thus be 2.7 to 3.4 feet, and within 50 years could be 5.7 to 7.2 feet. This is not an encouraging future when you look at elevation maps of South Florida or most any other coast.>>


https://www.sun-sentinel.com/opinion...620-story.html


As Wanless is in his late 70s, he's probably thankful he won't live to see his projections become reality.


Over this decade, sea level rise will become ever more obvious in southeast Florida, and the failure of mankind to wean itself off fossil fuels will unleash natural feedback loops, such as thawing permafrost releasing vast amounts of trapped methane and carbon dioxide, which will ever accelerate global warming, ocean thermal expansion, ice melt, and therefore sea level rise.


Of course, like Monty Python's The Black Knight, many involved in the Miami real estate industry such as yourself, will deny reality even when much of the city is treading water with great frequency.


https://www.google.com/search?client...for+holy+grail


Sadly, climate change deniers are not harmless, comedic characters.


And nature is indifferent to mankind's delusions, conscious or not, as anybody paying attention is constantly reminded, whether by heat domes, wildfires, or accelerating ice melt in the cryosphere.



https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ng/7638814001/

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by WRnative

Ridiculous Big Lie climate change denier propaganda.

no...it's a fact....not a newspaper article...and not some crystal ball prediction

in 100 years...global warming has had no effect on the rate of sea level rise in Miami

..~ 1 inch a decade....less than 1 foot in 100 years

global warming has had no effect on the rate for 100 years.....

here it is > https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sl...tml?id=8723214

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

no...it's a fact....not a newspaper article

in 100 years...global warming has had no effect on the rate of sea level rise in Miami

..~ 1 inch a decade....less than 1 foot in 100 years

here it is > https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sl...tml?id=8723214

Big Lie propagandists repeat falsehoods relentlessly with the hope that at least some persons will believe the lies. What's amazing in your case, the vast majority of individuals, including Miami residents, certainly recognize that this is a blatant falsehood! For those that don't, they're either real life, Monty Python Black Knights, mired in self-destructive delusion, or doomed to realize their error in thinking within a few short years.


And, no, it's not a newspaper article. It's the public, well-explained and informed opinion of one of the most respected and credentialed sea level rise experts in Florida.


Anybody should heed the scientist's warnings over the deliberate deceptions of an anonymous individual who can't read graphs, or, more likely, who simply won't admit what his linked graph clearly shows!


I guess gullible/ignorant individuals are a necessity to allow the vast game of musical chairs to continue in the Miami real estate market. Personally, I wouldn't play the game during hurricane season, as one Cat 5 hurricane striking a highly developed region anywhere in the U.S., may stop the music instantly, as insurance companies and mortgage lenders exit the Miami and Florida markets. Everybody has been warned, even as real estate prices and the risks mushroom. Bubble bursting does happen in real estate markets.



https://www.wlrn.org/show/the-florid...impacts-worsen

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by WRnative

Big Lie propagandists repeat falsehoods relentlessly with the hope that at least some persons will believe the lies.

too funny...you quote newspaper articles....and then accuse NOAA of lying

here's NOAA's tide gauge for Miami > https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sl...tml?id=8723214

..according to NOAA....global warming has had no effect on the rate of sea level rise for 100 years

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

too funny...you quote newspaper articles....and then accuse NOAA of lying

here's NOAA's tide gauge for Miami > https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sl...tml?id=8723214

..according to NOAA....global warming has had no effect on the rate of sea level rise for 100 years

Enough of this craziness. I never said NOAA is lying. NOAA's chart seems perfectly accurate, showing a steepening of sea level rise since 2010. Let me repeat this one last time (perhaps consult with a high school math teacher if you don't get it), you're falsely claiming that the mean sea level rise since 1930 is constant. That is NOT what the graph shows as sea level measurements in recent years clearly are above the long-term mean AND STEEPENING.


Hopefully, others can understand what NOAA's graph shows even if it's beyond your understanding, or should I say, ADMITTED UNDERSTANDING.


Obviously, NOAA knows sea level rise is accelerating. It says we will experience greater sea level rise in the next 30 years than in the past century, and the sea level increase will be even greater off the Florida coast, as much as 18 inches.


https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us...l-rise-by-2050


https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/enviro...re-for-florida

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by WRnative

Enough of this craziness. I never said NOAA is lying. NOAA's chart seems perfectly accurate, showing a steepening of sea level rise since 2010.

...and I have pointed out to you many times before...how that is blatant cherry picking...you know that....so it's you that's not being honest

From 1987 to 2010.....sea level in Miami went down

from 2010 to 2020....sea level rose again

...after 2020....sea level started falling again

the rise is sea level is not static....it's like a sine wave and goes up and down

the 10 year rate of sea level rise from 2010 to 2020...is no different than the 10 year rate from 1978 to 1988

and every time it goes up and down like a sine wave

you could cherry pick from 1986 to 2010...sea level was falling so fast....you could say Miami would be high and dry in 100 years....Biscayne Bay would be totally empty

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sl...tml?id=8723214