[mjlo]

//www.city-data.com/forum/michi...-2014-a-3.html


So last year I posted a study I helped my younger sister do. I updated it for this year. The regions are broken down as such:





Here are the updated totals:


Upper Peninsula



Northen Lower Peninsula



Western/Southwestern and Capital region



I-75 Corridor and State totals

[mjlo]

I had to update the totals on the spreadsheet it had an improper formula.



Basically the trends remain the same. Rural counties in the state continue to lose population, this still represents the national trend, and the attrition rates from these counties are more or less consistent with the national trend. The western side of the state continues to see the strongest growth.


By far the region holding the states population statistics down as a whole remains the Northern I-75 Corridor. (Flint, The tri-Cities, and the northern half of the thumb. If this region is removed the states population gains triple. Historically this region was the most auto-manufacturing dependent part of the state, perhaps the country. In specific it was almost exclusively GM-Centric. Unlike the Detroit area it does not sit on the worlds automotive brain trust, and as the auto manufacturing shifted to areas less influenced by the UAW, there was nothing to replace within the economy. These areas desperately need to shift economically to more knowledge based industries. I know there has been some progress, but nowhere near enough to stop the bleeding. Let alone make them attractive to new residents. It will be interesting to see if the unfortunate national attention on Flint due to the water tragedy, spurs new interest in the area from people want to help it.

[Geo-Aggie]

Originally Posted by mjlo

... It will be interesting to see if the unfortunate national attention on Flint due to the water tragedy, spurs new interest in the area from people want to help it.

I hesitate to say this, but I almost wonder if this was the idea all along. Given what we know about the number of cities with worse lead/copper issues in their water, and the areas of the country where lead in blood is significantly worse than Flint, and the fact that lead from paint is known to be a bigger issue than lead from water, even in Flint, I almost wonder if part of the news narrative was calculated, or at least purposely exaggerated, for this specific reason.

Yeah, it was an issue and yeah it needed to be brought to the attention of those who could switch water back to DWSD until the KWA comes online, but the manufactured narrative of gloom, doom, and apocalyptic conditions that was pushed in the media got the area a lot of attention that it was otherwise not receiving. If nothing else, I hope it's able to attract some outside investment into the area, because unlike Detroit, Grand Rapids, and Lansing which have been able to slowly move their economies along, that area of the state still feels stuck in an economy that no longer exists.

Anyway, nice work with the population calculations by region and county. It's very interesting to look at and track trends from. It does appear that the exodus from Wayne to Oakland/Macomb/Washtenaw Counties has slowed significantly from its heights in years prior. I wonder if Wayne will ever post growth again, or... at least how many years it'll take to get there.

[Indentured Servant]

Originally Posted by Geo-Aggie

I hesitate to say this, but I almost wonder if this was the idea all along. Given what we know about the number of cities with worse lead/copper issues in their water, and the areas of the country where lead in blood is significantly worse than Flint, and the fact that lead from paint is known to be a bigger issue than lead from water, even in Flint, I almost wonder if part of the news narrative was calculated, or at least purposely exaggerated, for this specific reason.

Yeah, it was an issue and yeah it needed to be brought to the attention of those who could switch water back to DWSD until the KWA comes online, but the manufactured narrative of gloom, doom, and apocalyptic conditions that was pushed in the media got the area a lot of attention that it was otherwise not receiving. If nothing else, I hope it's able to attract some outside investment into the area, because unlike Detroit, Grand Rapids, and Lansing which have been able to slowly move their economies along, that area of the state still feels stuck in an economy that no longer exists.

Anyway, nice work with the population calculations by region and county. It's very interesting to look at and track trends from. It does appear that the exodus from Wayne to Oakland/Macomb/Washtenaw Counties has slowed significantly from its heights in years prior. I wonder if Wayne will ever post growth again, or... at least how many years it'll take to get there.

I think it became a big issue because of politics (surprise surprise), as well as it being a legitimate issue. Flint is a city whose democracy was usurped. It was a Democratic City whose voters were usurped by a Republican Governor.....which led to decisions being made or not made, by the appointed authorities, that led to the crisis. The narrative was just too Juicy....for an election cycle....as the issue really had been a problem much longer than media attention....but boiled over when the presidential election started to heat up.

[mjlo]

Originally Posted by Geo-Aggie

I wonder if Wayne will ever post growth again, or... at least how many years it'll take to get there.

The rise and fall of Wayne County is almost inextricably tied to the city of Detroit. The exodus from Detroit was almost exclusively a shift that headed north of 8 mile. If the city limits of Detroit stopped at 6 mile Rd, or if the Exodus had been centered West of Telegraph, the conversation about Wayne Counties population trends would be very different. As it is, those western Wayne suburbs have been the buffer preventing Wayne County from losing as many people as the city itself has.

When Detroit loses a lot of residents, Wayne's losses reflect in kind. When Detroit's losses slow to a trickle, so then do Wayne's. I strongly feel that if Detroit posts an anemic gain, Wayne County will also.

[walker46]

Originally Posted by mjlo

So last year I posted a study I helped my younger sister do. I updated it for this year. . .

Assuming this was a school assignment for your sister, I hope her teacher wasn't too observant. There are a number of county population errors in the chart that distort the sectional totals. The big one is that the population numbers for Schoolcraft County in the Eastern U.P. are greatly inflated. The numbers posted belong to Shiawassee County in the I-75 corridor, and the numbers posted for Shiawasee belong to St. Joseph County in the southwest section. The numbers for the following counties that all happen to fall in alphabetical order are all jumbled: St. Clair County, St. Joseph County, Sanilac County, Schoolcraft County, and Shiawassee County. So the state totals are correct but the sectional totals are not. Not sure if this changes your conclusions at all since all these counties lost population, some more than others.

[MS313]

Originally Posted by mjlo

The rise and fall of Wayne County is almost inextricably tied to the city of Detroit. The exodus from Detroit was almost exclusively a shift that headed north of 8 mile. If the city limits of Detroit stopped at 6 mile Rd, or if the Exodus had been centered West of Telegraph, the conversation about Wayne Counties population trends would be very different. As it is, those western Wayne suburbs have been the buffer preventing Wayne County from losing as many people as the city itself has.

When Detroit loses a lot of residents, Wayne's losses reflect in kind. When Detroit's losses slow to a trickle, so then do Wayne's. I strongly feel that if Detroit posts an anemic gain, Wayne County will also.

Since almost half of Wayne County is Detroit itself... you are absolutely right. Wayne co goes as Detroit goes. But I believe Wayne Co will see a population gain before Detroit for the simple fact that if Detroit slows it's population loss down enough... the growth in the other communities in the county will offset it.

[mjlo]

Originally Posted by MS313

Since almost half of Wayne County is Detroit itself... you are absolutely right. Wayne co goes as Detroit goes. But I believe Wayne Co will see a population gain before Detroit for the simple fact that if Detroit slows it's population loss down enough... the growth in the other communities in the county will offset it.

I need to pay closer attention to the inner ring in Wayne County. Even as Detroit slows, aren't also the Dearborns, Livonia, Redford, and downriver still slowly trickling? It would have to be the affluent Plymouth, Northville's and Cantons that reversed that trend at this point.

[Geo-Aggie]

I agree that Detroit does account for about 50% of the population loss in Wayne County, but even Canton, Plymouth TWP and Plymouth City all bled some population between 2010 and 2015. A handful of Wayne County cities have grown (Northville, ... okay pretty much just Northville), but the majority of Wayne County has lost population from '10-'15.

http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/tab...,2665060,26163

Some of this is likely due to a demographic shift, but overall Wayne County is not in great shape from a population change perspective; meanwhile, north of Eight Mile even towns like Pontiac, Eastpointe, Center Line and Oak Park are growing.

http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/tab...614320,2659920

I get that 2015 numbers are estimates, but if accurate, the estimates state that more people are choosing to move to or raise families in Pontiac over Plymouth than vice versa. Wayne County is in bad shape.

[mjlo]

Originally Posted by walker46

Assuming this was a school assignment for your sister, I hope her teacher wasn't too observant. There are a number of county population errors in the chart that distort the sectional totals. The big one is that the population numbers for Schoolcraft County in the Eastern U.P. are greatly inflated. The numbers posted belong to Shiawassee County in the I-75 corridor, and the numbers posted for Shiawasee belong to St. Joseph County in the southwest section. The numbers for the following counties that all happen to fall in alphabetical order are all jumbled: St. Clair County, St. Joseph County, Sanilac County, Schoolcraft County, and Shiawassee County. So the state totals are correct but the sectional totals are not. Not sure if this changes your conclusions at all since all these counties lost population, some more than others.

This was the update from a project she did in 2014. Not something she did again. I didn't update the 2014 estimates from the revisions. There may be some discrepancies there. Otherwise all this is, is a copy and paste directly from the census bureaus estimates site. You are correct that the S counties were sorted differently from the 2014 spreadsheet good catch ��. That gave me headaches I thought I had them resorted right. I'll fix that for the 2016 numbers. I'm pretty sure I fixed it, I may have just linked the wrong screen shot. I'll have to check when I'm in a place I can do so.