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for the '09 prediction (made in '08), some were accurate
for the '10 predictions (being made now) no one knows...
This is very misleading, because it suggests that an uptick and downtick are equally likely, when in fact nothing could be further from the truth.
Saying that you don't know that house prices will be cheaper in a year is like saying that you "don't know" if the price of corn will fall between January and July. Sure, it's possible that prices will go up, but the market certainly doesn't think so.
Exactly the same is true of home prices. Today's expectations, as indicated by the market, are that there will be a substantial drop in prices. Sure, it's possible that prices will be higher in 2010, but according to the market, that's about as likely as an additional 40% drop in prices.
did anyone expect the price of gas
at the pump to go from $1.40 /gal. to
$4.09 /gal (in the space of ONE year) ?
I could give you a few economists who called it. Not coincidentally, they also called the Real Estate bust, the Fannie/Freddie bust, the banking bust, the economy bust, and they still say it's far from over. The real estate bust that is.
I could give you a few economists who called it. Not coincidentally, they also called the Real Estate bust, the Fannie/Freddie bust, the banking bust, the economy bust, and they still say it's far from over. The real estate bust that is.
btw, re the oil spike -- I took at look at those numbers, and it's about a "2 sigma event". Commodities are very volatile and the market knows it, which is why big consumers hedge (e.g. airlines).
This is in stark contrast with housing, where it had better not be too volatile, because the "conservative" 20-down home loan is leveraged 5 to 1.
southern california is in the worst economic shape ever, yet $1.5M houses are still selling.
go figure...
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