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So it seems to me that in lieu of a vaccine, our soonest best hope is achieving the elusive herd immunity. Can anyone explain whether or not there is a correlation between the stats JG posts and achieving herd immunity, or is that apples and oranges? NYT article today is instructive. Sort of...
Herd immunity is the condition at which infection chains terminate rather than growing. Equivalently, it is the point in an epidemic where the number of infected stops growing, or when R = 1. New Jersey reached herd immunity sometime in March or April. The only catch is that herd immunity is for the conditions that held at the time; it is possible that if we got out of lockdown, virus transmission would increase to the point that herd immunity no longer held, and we'd have an outbreak; this is what happened in California, Texas, Florida, and Arizona.
I doubt it though; I think the infection was so widespread before lockdowns that we reached and overshot herd immunity, even under normal conditions, by a comfortable margin.
My mother used to tell a story that the squirrels would spend the whole summer finding and storing nuts for the winter.... and then forget where they put them! I always that was kinda sad and now I’m thinking she made it up based on that video!
Quote:
Originally Posted by JG183
That is a great video, thank you for sharing it !
im glad you enjoyed the video. i gained a new respect for squirrels after i saw it.
This is really encouraging! My Y is supposed to open up their indoor pool on September 8th. With numbers like these they won't have any reason to change their minds .
Unless completion elimination is the goal, which is impossible without a complete nationwide lockdown along with a complete ban on interstate/international travel and the border completely closing (it's still fairly dubious if this would work; they half assed it back in March-June); Rt and the number of cases aren't the best of metrics. You could have a high Rt and number of cases with a low hospitalization and death rate as long as the wrong people aren't being infected. What matters is the hospital capacity and the number of deaths. We can drastically reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths by everyone, who is 60+ or have two or more underlying conditions (I hope the obese have been losing weight during all of this, you are dragging all of us down... literally), self isolating until an effective vaccine is found. If you guys don't like this idea, they could forcibly isolate those people, and the rest of us can go about our lives. We could even have an armband system for people who want their space respected. Stay at home if you need to be/feel safe!!! Say no to socialized conditions for risk based outcomes!!!
The CDC and our decision-makers have nothing better to offer than this extremely high level half-baked crap built around the prayer of an effective vaccine. It's a fail organization that somehow dropped the ball on infection controls guidance at nursing homes for a disease that mostly kills those who are 65+. It's been a fail organization from the start of this pandemic. One third of all nursing home residents have been infected and no one is really asking why/how this is happening, but you have all of these clowns who insist on generalized restrictions (YOU'LL DIE!!!!).
But whatever; I'm willing to give this all until April until I have my bullhorn out saying that the general restrictions crowd is smoking crack and need to be figuratively rolled into the river. Start/keep praying for that vaccine.
Unless completion elimination is the goal, which is impossible without a complete nationwide lockdown along with a complete ban on interstate/international travel and the border completely closing (it's still fairly dubious if this would work; they half assed it back in March-June); Rt and the number of cases aren't the best of metrics. You could have a high Rt and number of cases with a low hospitalization and death rate as long as the wrong people aren't being infected. What matters is the hospital capacity and the number of deaths. We can drastically reduce the number of hospitalizations and deaths by everyone, who is 60+ or have two or more underlying conditions (I hope the obese have been losing weight during all of this, you are dragging all of us down... literally), self isolating until an effective vaccine is found. If you guys don't like this idea, they could forcibly isolate those people, and the rest of us can go about our lives. We could even have an armband system for people who want their space respected.
The CDC and our decision-makers have nothing better to offer than this extremely high level half-baked crap built around the prayer of an effective vaccine. It's a fail organization that somehow dropped the ball on infection controls guidance at nursing homes for a disease that mostly kills those who are 65+. Stay at home if you need to be/feel safe!!! Say no to socialized conditions for risk based outcomes!!! It's been a fail organization from the start of this pandemic. One third of all nursing home residents have been infected and no one is really asking why/how this is happening, but you have all of these clowns who insist on generalized restrictions (YOU'LL DIE!!!!).
But whatever; I'm willing to give this all until April until I have my bullhorn out saying that the general restrictions crowd is smoking crack and need to be figuratively rolled into the to river. Start/keep praying for that vaccine.
I'm not giving it a second longer. It ends today, along with our town's move to all-remote learning. No more. They're all smoking crack.
Yeah, this has been so hard. My daughter is a junior and my older son a freshman. This is the home stretch for them. We're actually driving three hours into PA in order for her to take the SAT. Even though some universities are saying 'test optional', the place we used for test prep told us that we HAD to find a way for her to take it. Apparently schools are still using SAT scores as part of the university ranking system, so admitting kids with no test scores will drive down their overall numbers.
My freshman has an IEP, and online learning is a disaster for him. If we end up remote for this entire year (and it's looking like we could, the way Murphy is going), he's going to be so far behind I don't think he'll have time to 'recover' before he graduates.
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), self isolating until an effective vaccine is found. If you guys don't like this idea, they could forcibly isolate those people, and the rest of us can go about our lives. We could even have an armband system for people who want their space respected. Stay at home if you need to be/feel safe!!! Say no to socialized conditions for risk based outcomes!!!
