Quote:
Originally Posted by Revis Island
I usually go my murders to determine what's the most dangerous. Obviously drug infestation too. But usually where the drugs are is where a lot of murders occur.
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I don't know if murders alone are the best indicators of a neighbourhood's "safety", because the vast majority of murders are targeted killings, often related to the drug trade or other kinds of disputes. In most cases, victims of murder in the inner city are involved in the drug trade or some other kind of criminal enterprise. It's quite rare for completely innocent civilians to become victims of murder, even in the worst urban neighbourhoods. In cases not related to drug or gang activity, upwards of 90% of all murder victims know their killer. As a result, I think murder is a good indication of the overall level of criminality in a given neighbourhood, but isn't the best indiator of how
dangerous a neighbourhood is for the average civilian. Certainly, it shouldn't be ignored, but I think robbery and felony assault stats are much better indications of the danger a civilian faces in a given neighbourhood, opposed to strictly going by murder rates. If I were to take a walk through Brownsville's housing projects late at night, I would be much more worried about getting robbed or jumped (or both) than getting murdered.
I think the whole notion of "safety" has to be examined when talking about cities or neighbourhoods. Even in areas with high murder rates, the likelihood of becoming a murder victim on any given day is still very low if you don't engage in a criminal lifestyle. However, the threat of robbery, assault and rape - three of the four most serious violent crimes, IMO - affects everyone, not just hoodlums and drug dealers. As a result, crime indexes that combine the stats of the four major violent crimes in a given area - murder, robbery, assault, and rape - are the most helpful guide to judging the safety of a neighbourhood for the average person. Many police departments formulate their own crime indexes for different parts of the city and publish them on the Internet. I'm not sure if the NYPD do this, but I know the precincts publish their blotters online, often with '92 stats for comparison. Besides demonstrating just how much crime has dropped in even the worst areas, the blotters show the stats for many different crimes, including robbery, felony assault, and rape. IMO, the four stats together are the best way of judging a neigourhood's safety.