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The problem with NYC real estate is that the luxury market is fast reaching a tipping point where the demand is cooling off while the supply continues ratcheting up. Further, the tax gains of a one-time transaction don't outweigh the losses to the rental market, which is essentially "hoarding" limited land-space for buildings full of units that 99% of NYC's population can't afford. And among those who can afford such units, quite a few live in, and thus often pay taxes to other states or countries, adding little to nothing to our economy other than property taxes, which don't create jobs the way living in NYC full-time, and spending money in our local economy, does.
Good definition of the operation of a predatory economy, made particular.
Crime coming back full force scaring all the recently arrived breadknots and their skin yachts would be an amazing thing for affordability in this city. I am not pro-crime, but it seems like higher crime, even just the fear of it, is the lower middle class's last hope in this WAR.
Crime rises and falls and has been steadily falling ever since the 90s. It never stays at one singular point but it fluctuates. Cities at this point will not go back to crack era crime rates. The "Crime coming back," sentiment is just being used to scare people or as the tactic to gain votes. All you had to do was look at the campaign commercials of de Blasio's opponents. Pro crime? I don't think anyone is truly a supporter of crime. Nor is it any type of hope for the middle class.
We all know that startups can't pay well. That's why they are startups. Going to work in one is something of a risky proposition as there is a huge chance the company won't go anywhere.
And yet within the past 40 years Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon were once startups whose initial employees were poorly paid. And look at them now. Yes many of the companies that started up in those years went out of business or got bought out. But look at the survivors.
Obviously a few startups each decade become juggernauts, but the successful companies do not comprise the majority of the local industry, and the majority of existing startups will not become successful. Many of the existing startups fail to offer anything new to the market; further, most are either directly servicing/augmenting the financial sector or are operating in the already overcrowded and innovation-bereft social media space.
The point is not "startups pay poorly," however valuable that bit of info may or may not be to an industry/NYC newcomer. It is that a tech economy overly comprised of startups explicitly reliant on Wall Street funding while offering an undifferentiated value proposition in an over-saturated conceptual arena is not necessarily a bedrock of stability. Whether an individual wishes to risk his career and possibly finances at a particular startup is up to him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harlem resident
Good definition of the operation of a predatory economy, made particular.
Thanks. I've enjoyed your points in these types of threads too.
Last edited by Mr.BadGuy; 12-27-2015 at 03:42 PM..
Yeah I realize there is no hope for moderate income SINGLE people to remain in NYC who aren't part of the scrub class. However there IS a certain amount of glee to be obtained with Molly from Kalamazoo gets ripped off on her rent or Josh from Syossett gets his bike stolen (5 times). Makes me a hater? yes. I HATE NYC!!!!!!
My quality of life was only affected when Rudy waged war on the clubs and along with bloomy help ushered in gentrification of brooklyn. No problem at all with the current mayor, YET.
The problem with NYC real estate is that the luxury market is fast reaching a tipping point where the demand is cooling off while the supply continues ratcheting up. Further, the tax gains of a one-time transaction don't outweigh the losses to the rental market, which is essentially "hoarding" limited land-space for buildings full of units that 99% of NYC's population can't afford. And among those who can afford such units, quite a few live in, and thus often pay taxes to other states or countries, adding little to nothing to our economy other than property taxes, which don't create jobs the way living in NYC full-time, and spending money in our local economy, does.
While this all happens, the development companies often enjoy multi-year to multi-decade tax breaks robust enough that they can allow unrented/un-purchased units to sit empty, rather than dropping the price and perceived "cachet" if they so choose. It strikes me that a lot of folks seem to be less than enthusiastic about a NYC that houses its working population, but if they disappear, so does most of what remains of this city that people love (or claim to love, anyway). But as with every city's forum — and the rest of the subs, too — the people who have the least, be it money or political control, often both, make delicious targets. Luxury buildings are still hot because they're one of the few places remaining to dump money and hope to break even. And in time, they, too, will cease to be an attractive investment vehicle.
Its true, too, that the tech sector, is, at present, creating a lot of jobs. The unfortunate thing about "Silicon Alley" though is that it's intimately tied to Wall Street. The tech companies' fortunes will rise and fall with the fortunes of investment banks and hedge funds. A lot of the tech companies here are directly connected to — as in, service or augment — the financial sector. And a lot of tech companies project an image that is far more prosperous and successful than the reality. This is especially true of the buttload of later-stage start-ups that are clamoring to become the next Facebook, Snapchat, etc. — nearly all of which will, of course, fail before the IPO stage, since the market is over-saturated and Wall Street won't perceive any benefit to the offerings.
My wife and I have been interviewing at these type of companies like crazy (and not accepting the jobs for a VERY good reason). We have a well-connected network inside of them, and from the inside, you'd be shocked at how much of what goes on is nothing but smoke and mirrors. The sweet startup lucre is also much exaggerated. Especially if you're not senior-level, you can often earn more money working for the city government, or even at a mid-tier office job. NYC startups don't pay as well as the established companies here do. Besides student loans, the next bubble projected to burst is the social media start-up bubble. Its growth isn't sustainable, and if it bursts, there will most certainly be layoffs.
The entire economy is tied to cheap money once the cheap money is gone RE values will drop and will start seeing a recession. The Feds already sounded off that cheap money is a big problem and it's the main cause of income inequalities and they'll start to raise rates.
This is very true. Voting for de Blasio was more of an anti Bloomberg vote and Bloomberg's third term damaged any Republican's chance for getting the office for at least 4 years and perhaps 8 years. Trying to present yourself as the heir to Giuliani or Bloomberg will not work.
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Alas, the heir to Giuliani died as a suicide in 1945 Berlin.
So then OP, is YOUR life the worst in years? Tell us how.
<Otherwise stop telling us "how New Yorkers feel.">
I think most new comers to NY will love the early years but once the dust settles they may have mixed feeling or change of heart. More and more people coming over means higher rent and don't be surprise that your landlord is jacking up your rent and everything around you cost more while your paycheck hardly move.
The big kick in the rear is when the next recession comes probably 2017 right after an election is about right that's when the rug under many will be pulled and a real rude awakening.
During the last 2 recessions I've experienced in NYC, most folks that only been living in NYC for less than 5 years will get hit the hardest by job pressures, lack of employment, while cost of rent still high. At the height of the recession those 2-3 years after Guliani is when NYC started seeing lots of vacancies and people leaving NYC is droves.
Those that are least prepared are people coming here with no real skills, paying expensive rents, and living the NYC dream.
The big kick in the rear is when the next recession comes probably 2017 right after an election is about right that's when the rug under many will be pulled and a real rude awakening.
People are talking about financial difficulties in 2016, have been for some time.
Agree with the other points.
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