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Yeah, Brownsville's 35 per 100,000 (2008 numbers) definitely ranks up there with the WORST of the USA. There are still bad areas in NYC, and they still need a lot of help. Yes the city is getting safer every year, but there are still problem areas that really shouldn't be overlooked.
I don't know how you're getting your numbers but I can assure you those are wrong.
Brownsville murder rate was 35 per 100,000.
You are right about Brownsville I used CD 6( population 104,000 instead of CD 16( population 85,000) by mistake.So the per 100,000 number should be .85 instead of 1.04. But it shouldn't be off by that much.
According to the NYC site, Brooklyn CD 16 and the 73rd precinct's boundaries are exactly the same.The population of the 73rd/ 16th CD is 85,000.
There were 21 murders in that precinct in 2009 according to the NYPD site.
21 murders divided by 85,000 = 24.7 murders per 100,000.
Please tell me where You think i went wrong because I really want to figure it out.
In terms of Brownsville I think I used the 2008 numbers.
In everything else you have to be more precise. Go look at a precinct boundary map. Look at all the boundaries and remember them. Then look for a zip code map. Go to city-data and write in the zip code. Scroll down until you get to the list of neighborhoods in the zip code. Click the neighborhood and voila you have the majority of the population.
Lets say I'm looking at the 41st precinct. I search the 10474 zip code an go to the Hunts Point neighborhood which has other zip codes added to its population. So I get Hunts Point with 19,117. But looking at a map, there's a piece im not able to get. So I go back to the zip code map and find out the missing piece is the Longwood neighborhood which has a pop of 27,523. You add them up and roughly get 46,640....which you did get right. You do this with all the neigborhoods. Even if your pop is off by 3,000...you'll be near the number.
The thing about murder rates is that they fluctuate yearly. For example, Hunts Point had a murder rate of 18 in 2007 but in 2009 it was just 8.
Here's a few I calculated:
2009
40th (76,500)- 18 per 100,000
41st (46,640) - 13 per 100,000
42nd (62,646) - 24 per 100,000
44th (75,000)- 15 per 100,000
46th (78,353)- 17 per 100,000
52nd (80,000) - 9 per 100,000
I would definitely like to know where you got your population figures.
For instance you have the 44th precinct( CD 4) as 75,000 population but according to NYC the population is 139,000. That's a huge diff.Where did you get your population numbers from? Bronx Community District 4 - New York City Department of City Planning
Obviously,such big number diffs will have a big impact.
Please show what you think are the populations and the number of murders in a precinct in 2009 so we can compare accurately.I have 11 in 2009 for the 44th
In terms of Brownsville I think I used the 2008 numbers.
In everything else you have to be more precise. Go look at a precinct boundary map. Look at all the boundaries and remember them. Then look for a zip code map. Go to city-data and write in the zip code. Scroll down until you get to the list of neighborhoods in the zip code. Click the neighborhood and voila you have the majority of the population.
Lets say I'm looking at the 41st precinct. I search the 10474 zip code an go to the Hunts Point neighborhood which has other zip codes added to its population. So I get Hunts Point with 19,117. But looking at a map, there's a piece im not able to get. So I go back to the zip code map and find out the missing piece is the Longwood neighborhood which has a pop of 27,523. You add them up and roughly get 46,640....which you did get right. You do this with all the neigborhoods. Even if your pop is off by 3,000...you'll be near the number.
I think you are making it way too complicated and very inaccurate.All the NYPD precincts correspond exactly with a Community District.... if you don't believe me look at the CD maps and look at the precinct maps. The population figures for each CD( and corresponding precinct) are given on the NYC CD site.you don't need any zip codes or adding or trying to make boundaries coincide at all.
The 41 precinct is Bronx CD2.The population of Bronx CD2 is 47,000
You can then get the official population of any CD/precinct by googling "BRONX CD " or Brooklyn CD 16 and you will find it
I am quite convinced that my numbers are accurate unless I made an honest mistake of assigning a wrong CD to a precinct as I did with Brownsville.
I used 2009 crime rates for all the precincts.
Where did you find 2008 murder rates for Brownsville?They are not on the site. The NYPD 73 pcy site says the murder rates fro Brownsville have gone down in the last 2 years so I don't know how it could ever have been 35.
I think you are making it way too complicated and very inaccurate.All the NYPD precincts correspond exactly with a Community District.... if you don't believe me look at the CD maps and look at the precinct maps. The population figures for each CD( and corresponding precinct) are given on the NYC CD site.you don't need any zip codes or adding or trying to make boundaries coincide at all.
The 41 precinct is Bronx CD2.The population of Bronx CD2 is 47,000
Here is a map of Bronx CD2 http://schurmgmt.com/images/bx2profile.pdf
Here is a precinct map of the 41st precinct:http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/html/pr..._finder.shtml#
What is the diff ?
They both seem to be bounded on the North by 167th st and 169th st Street to a point where Westchester Ave crosses The Bronx river,on the West by Prospect Ave and 149th st down to the water,On the East by The Bronx River and on the south by The water.
I see no difference at all in the boundaries Zip.Please tell me where they differ and whether it's North,South,East or west.
I think you are making it way too complicated and very inaccurate.All the NYPD precincts correspond exactly with a Community District.... if you don't believe me look at the CD maps and look at the precinct maps. The population figures for each CD( and corresponding precinct) are given on the NYC CD site.you don't need any zip codes or adding or trying to make boundaries coincide at all.
The 41 precinct is Bronx CD2.The population of Bronx CD2 is 47,000
You can then get the official population of any CD/precinct by googling "BRONX CD " or Brooklyn CD 16 and you will find it
I am quite convinced that my numbers are accurate unless I made an honest mistake of assigning a wrong CD to a precinct as I did with Brownsville.
I used 2009 crime rates for all the precincts.
Where did you find 2008 murder rates for Brownsville?They are not on the site. The NYPD 73 pcy site says the murder rates fro Brownsville have gone down in the last 2 years so I don't know how it could ever have been 35.
They were like 28 or 29. In 2007 it was at 33 if I'm not mistaken. The 73rd precinct has actually been pretty steady in terms of homicides since 1995. Hovering in the 30s.
Thats one of the few precincts that match up...which is why the population number is right. I got the same number.
But just about every other precinct has different boundaries. You're gonna have to look closer at them. I've been doing this for years and can tell you things off the top of my head.
From your list the number for 40th is a little high but it can give you the right idea. Ditto for the 42nd. The 41st seems accurate.
The 44th, 46th, and 52nd are way off. None of these precincts are even close to breaking 100 k. Look at those boundaries again.
The 48th should be in the 60,000's like the 42nd (similar precincts)..so that number is wrong. On the 43rd....I think it does break 100k but it's not that big a number.
I dont know enough about 45th, 47th, or 50th to tell you how accurate they are.
Murders in NYC neighborhoods rates seem to be rather low compared to a lot of other neighborhoods in other cities across the country. But I think crime overall is up in areas like ENY, Brownsville, Mott Haven, South Jamaica etc..
Thats one of the few precincts that match up...which is why the population number is right. I got the same number.
But just about every other precinct has different boundaries. You're gonna have to look closer at them. I've been doing this for years and can tell you things off the top of my head.
From your list the number for 40th is a little high but it can give you the right idea. Ditto for the 42nd. The 41st seems accurate.
The 44th, 46th, and 52nd are way off. None of these precincts are even close to breaking 100 k. Look at those boundaries again.
The 48th should be in the 60,000's like the 42nd (similar precincts)..so that number is wrong. On the 43rd....I think it does break 100k but it's not that big a number.
I dont know enough about 45th, 47th, or 50th to tell you how accurate they are.
52 pct bounded on the North by Van Cortlandt Park( W Gun Hill) and Woodlawn Cemetary,on The East by Webster down to Fordham Rd It actually includes all of Bronx Park here( the Zoo and Botanical Garden but I made the boundary webster because nobody lives in Bronx Park.You could use The Bronx River or The Bronx river Parkway as the Eastern Boundary if you prefer. On the south by Fordhan over to Jerome then South along Jerome to 183 st,then along 183Rd to MLK again to Hall Of fame terrace ,then over to The Harlem River,then up to 225 St,then East along 225th and Kingsbridge Rds to Reservoir ave and up Reservoir and Goulden back up to Gun Hill.It includes Norwood,Bedford Park,Fordham,Kingsbridge Heights and University Heights.
These precinct boundaries correspond precisely with BX CD 7. http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/pdf/lucds/bx7profile.pdf
The population of Bronx CD7 is 141,411. It;s in the above PDF with the map.
According to NYPD this area 52nd precinct/BX cD 7 had 7 murders in 2009.
7 murders in a year with a population of 141,000 translates to a murder rate of 4.96 per 100,000.
Please tell me exactly where i am wrong with the boundaries,population figures and murder rates for this area and provide a link to where your info is coming from.
I really think it's your numbers and configurations that are way off.
Anyone who wants to can check my precinct/Cd boundaries and info by using the links for precinct maps http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/html/pr...t_finder.shtml
Cd Maps and population figures:http://www.nyc.gov/html/dcp/html/neighbor/neigh.shtml
You can zoom in on any of the maps to really check boundaries.I would actually like to know if you find an error but please be precise about where I made an error and back it up.
Last edited by bluedog2; 06-16-2010 at 11:06 PM..
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