How long before the housing market bubble trickles to the DC exurbs?

[mshan242709]

Any current observations on if / how far housing bubble has extended in this metro area?

Comments I've seen nationally (which may not apply to this metro area) are that 1) home prices have gone up too much (potential buyers having sticker shock), and 2) lack of inventory.

[greekchampion04]

I don't think so. Every house I looked at in Stafford had multiple bids and/or sold within days of coming on the market.

[stpickrell]

Originally Posted by greekchampion04

I don't think so. Every house I looked at in Stafford had multiple bids and/or sold within days of coming on the market.

Three houses on my street in close-to-downtown Leesburg sold within a week. One over $500k the other two around $390k.

[FCNova]

Originally Posted by mshan242700

Any current observations on if / how far housing bubble has extended in this metro area?

Comments I've seen nationally (which may not apply to this metro area) are that 1) home prices have gone up too much (potential buyers having sticker shock), and 2) lack of inventory.

I've read several articles recently discussing how housing will struggle mightily over the next few years. But they were written with a national scope, and real estate is local. This area is very resilient due to the strong job market. It certainly will be interesting to see how home prices handle increasing interest rates down the road.

[newnewsmama]

There's not much inventory on the market. Many people refied last year with very low rates. Now the rates are higher. And if they want to move up, there are not enough houses for sale to choose from. Many people are trapped in their own houses. Also, lots of people don't sell their old homes after buying new. They just rent them out.

[HomePricesYouSay]

Prince William County/Manassas City/Manassas Park/etc are down YoY. A townhouse in Fairfax a mile to the PWC county line is 350k while you can get a 4 bedroom 2k sq ft single family house right across the county line for 300k. I don't know if PWC will continue to fall or plateau but the exburb prices there are not moving up this year. Unless prices in Fairfax begin to fall, it's hard to imagine this trend (upward pressure in Fairfax and downward price pressure in PWC) can continue. The disparity in price between a house and a townhouse right down the street is becoming absurd.

[compuguy]

Originally Posted by NovaOne

It's the hills. People forget that they need to press the gas pedal harder when going up a hill.

You think I am kidding.

That and drivers in this area cannot merge. You don't believe me, look at 495 during rush hour. It always clogs up near those areas where merges are involved (RT 7, RT 50, Gallows, etc).

Originally Posted by AmyinNOVA

Or, you can just take the VRE. I commute from Fredericksburg to Alexandria every day and taking the VRE is a breeze. Only takes an hour and it would certainly take a lot longer driving. My company does give me a smartbenefit every month, but even if I had to pay full price... it would still be cheaper than paying for the gas to sit in 95 traffic all the time.

Unfortunately VRE does not go to Tysons, and my Employer does not give smartbenefits, only transit benefits via wageworks (we can pay for mass transit minus taxes).

Originally Posted by JohnMatrix100

I doubt you will see much downward pressure on prices, and even if there is some it will be in certain geographical markets.

In NOVA, anything in decent neighborhoods and inside the beltway is in high demand. I know of two people personally who have put homes on the market in the past month. The first went in 7 days, the second had 25 groups on its first open house (which was this past Sunday).

IMO, with Tysons transforming and the Mosaic district nearby on Gallows Road, SFH within a 10 mile radius will see fairly constant demand, and decent appreciation, for some time. That's a pretty huge area that includes Falls Church, McLean/Langley, Vienna, and Seven Corners. Most of the new residential construction in this area is condo and apartment high rises.

Outside the beltway is a whole different story. Traffic becomes a major quality of life issue, urban options are limited and there are still some foreclosures coming onto the market. You do get more space, but that is not without costs.

Houses are in demand even outside the beltway. I saw some local houses in Burke get snapped up within days after a open house.

[NC211]

Out by me (Loudoun / Brambleton) it seems to be getting a little more "spotty" with price appreciation. I think we're seeing where the ceiling is going to be for a little while now. We've had townhouses in our neighborhood go for $500k this season, while similar sized town homes down the road a ¼ mile go for $400k. 2 years ago, in my neighborhood, you could buy a sfh that was more than double the size of the town homes go for $550k +/-.

Some houses have been on the market longer than I would've expected this cycle in the area. I say longer than expected, based upon last year when 7 days was considered too long on the market!

I think interest rates are playing the biggest part in what I'm seeing. Makes sense too. Prices aren't coming down, just taking a little longer to find the right buyer. To be expected when you're coming out of a 2 year mortgage market where a 30 year term could be had from 3.75% to 4.25%. That .50%, when you're talking about a mortgage of $500k, makes a noticeable difference to several potential buyers.