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Sorry, my friend, but you've fallen into a very common pothole with this argument.
According to Bureau of Labor statistics, $248 in 1977 was equal in buying power to $970.20 today, and with just a little shopping I can easily beat that.
Sorry must be my bad writing again? I agree airfare was more expensive in the 70s, i was just arguing that the airfare wasn't that expensive if you wantted to live in Hawai'i the most expensive place to live.
I find that interesting, because even back in the 70s, Oahu was still one if the most expensive places to live. So obviously if you can afford to live here you can fly here. Airfare was more expensive In 1978, you could pay $278 to fly PDX-HNL-KOA (round trip) or in 1977 pay $248 RT from West Coast to Oahu.
Airfare has fallen approximately 50% when inflation is accounted for the past 30 years
It is naive to think rent will only go up 20% total in the next several years (let's call it 7), when actual data suggests otherwise.
It is also naive to think anyone on a FIXED income, won't be subject to rent increases that will far outstrip any increases to the fixed income.
And to suggest that "anyone" should move here is naive to think the islands can continue to handle the current population growth. Something has to give.
There is no "data" supporting rent increases other than the typical expectation that inflation will erode the value of the dollar in your pocket thus increasing the cost of virtually everything... including rent. But there is nothing that supports rent increases above and beyond the typical and expected rate of inflation (i.e. 2-3%). I'm curious to see the data you have that suggests rents will go up more than let's say 3% annually during the next 3 years. Now I'm not saying it's possible that rents could increase more (or less) than 2-3% but I'd like to see your data that supposedly suggests otherwise.
I do agree that we need to control population and if skyrocketing costs does the trick than so be it. But I just don't buy into all these claims that rents are going to continue to go through the roof over the next several years.
Sigh. Did you not open any of the links I provided. Really?
You mean the link you posted about rents doubling every 20 years? Yes, I did and I responded to your post regarding it. Did you not read it? The data you provided was indeed useful and simply proved that rents increase at a rate of 3.5% (I consistently stated they increase at about 3% or the inflation rate of 3.2%) NOT 6 or 7%+ like you and honobob claim they do.. In fact, honobob responded to your data stating "it's skewed to the low side" whatever that meant. Your very own data supports what I've been saying all along. So again, I'd like to see data that supports rents increasing at rates much higher than 3%. All I have so far is honobobs claim of the $200/mo blue tarp special he swears he lived in back in 1980. LOL.
I'll expect to see rents increase in the 2-3% range for the foreseeable future which (according to our government) is a rate higher than the projected and TARGET rate of inflation. Just to reiterate, I do believe rents could increase at a higher clip (more than 3%) over the next couple years but that higher rate will not be sustainable over many years. At the end, over the long run we're looking at about 3% YOY just as your data suggests.
You are cherry picking what you want to believe and read.
Go back to post #62
Huh? I responded to that one too. Post #64 (my response is underlined below) -
"I thought I was clear when I stated that the 6% increases are NOT sustainable OVER 35 years as honobob suggests. Yes, of course they can increase 6% in a year. I never said they can't. Or even 10% in one year. Or 25% over 5 years. The argument I'm making is that 6% AVERAGE SUSTAINED EVERY SINGLE YEAR OVER 35 YEARS is ridiculous. That's a doubling of rent every 12 years. 100% ridiculous.
Thanks for the link though. If you look under "all beds" it's $1622 for 09' and $1859 for 14' which comes to 2.8% increase each year. Lots of cherry pickers here on this site I noticed "
Would you agree that ALL BEDS should be the best indicator as it's a blend of ALL apartment sizes? Or do you need to cherry pick specifically ONLY 1 bdrms to make a point? (and forget that studios, 2 bdrms and 3bdrms actually exist too) Hmmmm...
I would also question the validity of that website. They put Palolo, Ewa and Kaneohe as listed as WAY higher rent than Waikiki, Downtown, Kakaako/Ala Moana, Kaimuki and Nuuanu. Diamond Head is literally at the BOTTOM of the list and below Kalihi. That site claims that Diamond Head is nearly 20% CHEAPER in rent than Ewa. That's some useful data there! LOL. I feel sorry for any outsiders using that site as a gauge to determine rent affordability on Oahu. It's extremely misleading.
2.8% is once again right in line with what I've been saying at ~3%. Sorry but you'll have to do some more digging to prove rents increased more than that.
Huh? I responded to that one too. Post #64 (my response is underlined below) -
"I thought I was clear when I stated that the 6% increases are NOT sustainable OVER 35 years as honobob suggests. Yes, of course they can increase 6% in a year. I never said they can't. Or even 10% in one year. Or 25% over 5 years. The argument I'm making is that 6% AVERAGE SUSTAINED EVERY SINGLE YEAR OVER 35 YEARS is ridiculous. That's a doubling of rent every 12 years. 100% ridiculous.
Thanks for the link though. If you look under "all beds" it's $1622 for 09' and $1859 for 14' which comes to 2.8% increase each year. Lots of cherry pickers here on this site I noticed "
Would you agree that ALL BEDS should be the best indicator as it's a blend of ALL apartment sizes? Or do you need to cherry pick specifically ONLY 1 bdrms to make a point? (and forget that studios, 2 bdrms and 3bdrms actually exist too) Hmmmm...
I would also question the validity of that website. They put Palolo, Ewa and Kaneohe as listed as WAY higher rent than Waikiki, Downtown, Kakaako/Ala Moana, Kaimuki and Nuuanu. Diamond Head is literally at the BOTTOM of the list and below Kalihi. That site claims that Diamond Head is nearly 20% CHEAPER in rent than Ewa. That's some useful data there! LOL. I feel sorry for any outsiders using that site as a gauge to determine rent affordability on Oahu. It's extremely misleading.
2.8% is once again right in line with what I've been saying at ~3%. Sorry but you'll have to do some more digging to prove rents increased more than that.
You clearly do not understand inflation, economics or supply and demand.
Inflation impacts the purchasing power of the dollar. Supply and demand determines the value of real estate. Both result in the higher than just inflation increases in rents and prices in Honolulu.
How do you explain Honolulu having among the highest rents in the country? Did the rent fairy come by in 1950 and say rents are $100 in Indiana AND $500 in Honolulu and they shall both increase only by the rate of inflation? I bet there are some people in Detroit that WISH their properties increased by the rate of inflation.
Still waiting for any 1978 Waikiki/Diamond Head rent comp that has ONLY increased by 3%. Surely with all your local family/business contacts you can fine ONE 1 bedroom apartment renting for $1800 today that rented for $600 in 1978.
And yes there are people that are paying under market rents in Hawaii. BUT that does not change what markets rents are. That's how you can determine that the rent IS under market. I was trying to find an article from maybe 10 years ago that identified Aina Haina as an area that had a lot of mainland haole boomer landlords that had long term under market tenants that would probably see major rent spikes when the boomers liquidated/died off. It's not just the local/Chinese/Japanese landlords that value long term tenants.
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