Is Medford "Pot City"? (pros and cons, tax, live)

[Larry Caldwell]

Now that California has legalized weed, there is no way anyone will spend $2 million a month on pot in Medford. Southern Oregon grows some outstanding weed thanks to the climate, but Northern California has the same climate, and crossing a state border with weed is a federal crime. The only town still raking in the cash from forlorn stoners is Ontario, where they click along at $960/cap in sales. Multnomah County has been averaging $220/cap, and that's not an area where free weed is available from hundreds of personal use growers. I also expect a lot of that weed is flying out of PDX, so Portland is a border state even though Washington has legal weed.

However, assuming nobody in Medford is smoking free weed, there are about 82,000 people x $220/cap would yield annual sales of $18 million a year, or about 1.5 million a month. Thanks to the salubrious climate, I would expect actual sales to settle at around half that. As to the numbers themselves, they make no sense to me. $220/year at a high retail price of $5/gram would be over 2 ounces of bud for every man, woman and child. Somebody has to be too young, has to work for a living, has to excel in school, or have a decent life. They can't be stoned all the time, if they use pot at all. Local pot shops are advertising prices as low as $1/gram, or about $22/ounce. With inflation, that's way less than Mexican mud weed prices from 1967. I don't see little Medford toking down 26 tons of weed a year.

[PNW-type-gal]

Well, I don't buy pot for smoking, but I did buy a THC/CBD cream ($60 for 3.5 fl oz) for resting hand tremor and an ankle issue that worked very well. I have no idea how much pot goes in to make a lotion, but this particular shop specializes in medical marijuana and advertises the largest selection of creams, lotions, butters, etc.

No idea what the ratio of pot being used in the various forms is.

[Metlakatla]

Oregon's marijuana industry isn't going anywhere until and unless the PTB allow out-of-state sales.

I never understood why anyone ever thought legal pot farms would take the place of the cartels. I doubt very little of what the cartels produce stays in the state.

[PNW-type-gal]

I think the long-run future is that:
- the various pot industries will finally be able to use federally-regulated banks (I read somewhere that Colorado was considering developing a state bank to do away with Federal regulation - good luck with that)
- pot/hemp will be sold over state lines. The current guess is that something like 50% of Oregon/Nor Cal's illegal pot crop goes to the east coast.
- very large players will come in to the industry (think Philip Morris and RJ Reynolds) and crush the small players. Multinational corporate brand pot. Huh.

A couple of the larger marijuana grows here are already owned by a "cartel" - a legal one, anyway, representing a large group of out-of-state investors.

[karlsch]

When more states legalize marijuana/hemp and it can be grown in the open, there will be less, not more demand for Oregon product.

Farmers in the Midwest, where the growing conditions are great, will start to grow it. That's where much of the hemp was grown until it was outlawed after WWII.

Even though it hasn't been cultivated there for years, it still grows wild. It's as hard to eradicate there as dandelions. You can see in growing in ditches along the country, gravel roads. That's why it's called “ditch weed.”

[pdxMIKEpdx]

So what exactly are the big problems Oregon is having other than our government bureaucracy not being able to get their crap together and make real tax money from legal pot?

To be totally honest, other than the tediousness of seeing a pot dispensary (or glass shoppe) on every corner in Portland, there really hasn't been any change at all in normal day to day life.
(To be totally honest, Oregon could do with a few more liqour stores)

Except now that it's legal, and we don't have a bunch of underground drug dealers selling overpriced crappy weed.

In fact, I think it's done Oregon small businesses a lot of good.

Personally, I believe it should be legalized nationally.
Canada did, and I don't see thousands of stoned Canucks falling out of the sky.

[texasdiver]

I expect the pot business will go the full cycle that the liquor and brewing business has gone through over the past century. And, well frankly, most agribusiness like meat processing and corn production.

As pot legalization eventually becomes national we will see tremendous regulation (for health, safety, etc) that will be aided and abetted by the really big corporate growers which will squeeze out all the little operators who can't afford the $100 million processing facility required to meet all the new Federal regulations.

Then when 95% of the little guys are squeezed out we'll see the mico-grow revolution happen just like the micro-brew revolution and we'll see small botique grow operations pop up here and there with "tasting rooms" and such.

Then eventually the big corporate operators will buy out most of the new small micro-grow operations and pretend to be them. Just like we now have "fake" microbrews like Blue Moon (Coors) and Shock Top (Bud).

What does that mean for Medford? I have no idea. But pot is a LOT easier to grow than grapes so I don't think southern Oregon is long term going to be some sort of geographically unique pot growing region like the Napa Valley or Yamhill County for wine. The stuff grows like crazy in places like Kentucky and Tennessee which have a LOT more rural farm land than Oregon because they have very little public lands. The south is full of rural farmland that gets adequate rain and summer heat. If they ever start growing pot then any advantage southern Oregon currently has will eventually be over. Big corporate growers will quickly migrate there to avoid all the regulations and NIMBY folks who make their operations difficult here.

[Larry Caldwell]

I doubt the south will ever be a big pot production area because of mildew problems. Mildew is the major reason pot does not pass state inspection in Oregon, and Southern Oregon enjoys about 20% relative humidity all summer long. Growing pot in an area with 80% humidity would be nearly impossible. It's just cheaper to make a crop here than it is in other areas. Even the Willamette Valley is too moist to grow pot. The primo outdoor growing region starts on the south end of Douglas County and runs south through Shasta County, about the boundaries of the lamented State of Jefferson.

For whiskey, go to Kentucky and Tennessee. For pot go to the State of Jefferson. FYI, the Willamette Valley gets its rep from Pinot Noir. There are wineries in Southern Oregon that do a better job with other varietals. I have a winery 5 miles from my house that would knock your socks off with their Syrah. A guy I know built a whole enology center at UCC.

And for gin, of course, go to Portland.

[karlsch]

"It Would Take Oregonians Seven Years to Smoke All the Weed They Harvested This Year"

https://www.wweek.com/news/2019/01/0...ted-this-year/

[oregonwoodsmoke]

Originally Posted by karlsch

"It Would Take Oregonians Seven Years to Smoke All the Weed They Harvested This Year"............

Yes, but a great deal of Oregon pot is exported across state lines illegally. Still, the business appears to be less attractive than once hoped.