Housing bubble? (Tampa, Orlando, Conway: mortgage, lawyers, houses)

[firmbizzle]

Originally Posted by lhafer

So are the neighborhoods that are mentioned as being “safer” bets - do they have good schools? Because that is a serious consideration (middle and high school).

Yes. Those are the safest bets, A rated schools. Winter Park, Dr. Phillips, Waterford, now Lake Nona, Cornerstone, and Seminole county schools.

[WinterParkLocal]

Originally Posted by lhafer

So are the neighborhoods that are mentioned as being “safer” bets - do they have good schools? Because that is a serious consideration (middle and high school).

The Florida Department of Education has a downloadable Excel spreadsheet to show school grades. I usually advise clients to not look at just the most recent year but historical grades. Then explore the schools individually to see what programs they offer (AP/IB, Arts, Athletic success, etc).

Florida School Accountability Reports

[firmbizzle]

Originally Posted by WinterParkLocal

The Florida Department of Education has a downloadable Excel spreadsheet to show school grades. I usually advise clients to not look at just the most recent year but historical grades. Then explore the schools individually to see what programs they offer (AP/IB, Arts, Athletic success, etc).

Florida School Accountability Reports

Good post. Looks like there are 3 consistently ranked high schools in both Orange (Cornerstone, Winter Park, Timber Creek) and Seminole (Crooms, Oviedo, Hagerty), 2 in Osecola (New Dimensions, Prof. & Tech). I've watched the bubble occur in Avalon Park and often wondered why anyone would move there. However, Timber Creek is an A rated school with a rock star principal, now I understand.

[kyle19125]

Originally Posted by lhafer

So are the neighborhoods that are mentioned as being “safer” bets - do they have good schools? Because that is a serious consideration (middle and high school).

Lake Howell HS is "A" rated and has been good for a long time. Much of Conway is served by Boone HS which I believe is a B+ rated school and fairly well-regarded. Timber Creek HS is in Waterford Lakes and scores somewhere between Lake Howell and Boone. All in all of the three I would look more at Lake Howell. It's a more family-friendly area overall with less traffic/congestion than Waterford Lakes and uniformly similary nice neighborhoods surrounding it than what Conway offers.

http://www.lakehowell.scps.k12.fl.us...x4LlTx6g%3d%3d
https://www.scps.k12.fl.us/_resource..._Zone_2016.pdf

[boy3365]

Cornerstone is a charter school.

As far as Boone, there is more wealth there than people realize. Additionally, Blanker K-8 down the road is highly regarded to the point that it is a feature on many home sale signs in the area.

[Huckleberry3911948]

We are overdue for a bubble pop

[ConnecticutSir]

They've been saying that we're in a housing bubble and that it's gonna pop for about five years now, and it hasn't happened. The reason why I don't think it will pop this time is because the housing boom isn't based off of predatory loans like last time. Reforms were made to prevent that from happening again. This time things are booming because of supply and demand. There's "too many" people and not enough places to live, especially in states like Florida. Things will inevitably cool down most likely, but there won't be a pop like last time.

[ninjamyst]

If you buy in the "safer" areas, they are also the most expensive and "overpriced" areas with older homes that require a lot of renovation and repair. If you can find one that's already been renovated, expect to pay even more. Sooo....no easy choice. We bought in Dr. Phillips and paid a lot more than we wanted to but we made the choice to pay for location. As my wife like to say, we gonna die in this house so make it our dream house. She said that about our previous house =P.

[boy3365]

Originally Posted by ninjamyst

If you buy in the "safer" areas, they are also the most expensive and "overpriced" areas with older homes that require a lot of renovation and repair. If you can find one that's already been renovated, expect to pay even more. Sooo....no easy choice. We bought in Dr. Phillips and paid a lot more than we wanted to but we made the choice to pay for location. As my wife like to say, we gonna die in this house so make it our dream house. She said that about our previous house =P.

You are absolutely correct about the "safer" or "established" neighborhoods. The "affordable" homes are typically old with expensive repair/renovation needs.

In the Delaney Park/SODO area, it seems like quite a few older, decrepit homes are at least listed around $200,000-$220,000 only to be torn down and replaced with $500,000K+ modern, state-of-the-art homes.

[kyle19125]

Originally Posted by boy3365

You are absolutely correct about the "safer" or "established" neighborhoods. The "affordable" homes are typically old with expensive repair/renovation needs.

In the Delaney Park/SODO area, it seems like quite a few older, decrepit homes are at least listed around $200,000-$220,000 only to be torn down and replaced with $500,000K+ modern, state-of-the-art homes.

I'm not sure why buyers have become so lazy and wanting everything "turnkey" and why tearing down a 200K house to build a McMansion in a neighborhood where they stick out like a sore thumb seems like a good idea. Also in terms of Delaney Park, that ship has sailed on homes that price bracket. The least expensive 3 bedroom homes there now start around 350K-400K with the median closer to somewhere between 500K-600K. Ridiculous, and certainly a tip off about a bubble happening sooner than later. Meanwhile in Tampa for instance there's extensive inventory of three bedroom homes in comparable neighborhoods in the 300K-400K bracket.