Housing bubble? (Orlando, Iona, Seminole: best neighborhoods, apartments, foreclosure)

[firmbizzle]

Originally Posted by kyle19125

I'm not sure why buyers have become so lazy and wanting everything "turnkey" and why tearing down a 200K house to build a McMansion in a neighborhood where they stick out like a sore thumb seems like a good idea. Also in terms of Delaney Park, that ship has sailed on homes that price bracket. The least expensive 3 bedroom homes there now start around 350K-400K with the median closer to somewhere between 500K-600K. Ridiculous, and certainly a tip off about a bubble happening sooner than later. Meanwhile in Tampa for instance there's extensive inventory of three bedroom homes in comparable neighborhoods in the 300K-400K bracket.

Because they like the area (near downtown) but they don't like the square footage. I'm debating about doing the same thing.

[boy3365]

Originally Posted by kyle19125

I'm not sure why buyers have become so lazy and wanting everything "turnkey" and why tearing down a 200K house to build a McMansion in a neighborhood where they stick out like a sore thumb seems like a good idea. Also in terms of Delaney Park, that ship has sailed on homes that price bracket. The least expensive 3 bedroom homes there now start around 350K-400K with the median closer to somewhere between 500K-600K. Ridiculous, and certainly a tip off about a bubble happening sooner than later. Meanwhile in Tampa for instance there's extensive inventory of three bedroom homes in comparable neighborhoods in the 300K-400K bracket.

I couldn't find any houses on the search I did just now, but over the past 3-4 years, there were plenty of houses in between Orange and Semoran as well as south of 408 and north of maybe Hoffner that were listing for $190,000-$210,000 where the only sensible thing to do was to tear it down or do an internal demolition. Those homebuyers (or likely investors/builders) weren't lazy to me. :-) Many of those homes were likely east of Bumby though, so not in the heart of Delaney Park but more toward Conway or Hourglass/Curry Ford West.

Paying $400K+ for those houses is probably not ridiculous to the "I'm going to save so much on taxes and COL by moving to Florida from [insert major US city that is not in Texas because it doesn't fit the political narrative]" folks, which makes it harder for those of us who started their careers here to purchase them ourselves. As much as I want a retraction in prices, I think the increased cross-country migration to the state due to the pandemic work environment changes may keep the prices high for a while.

However, maybe many will realize that they want four seasons, more adequately funded schools, Wegmans, better Mexican food, a more established arts scene as opposed to emerging, and whatever other cultural things we've all argued about on C-D and will go back and make Orlando or the state as a whole affordable for the rest of us again. :-)

[LPnerd]

Originally Posted by lhafer

So are the neighborhoods that are mentioned as being “safer” bets - do they have good schools? Because that is a serious consideration (middle and high school).

schools in FL are horrible! unless you get into a gifted program, or a charter school, there are a few of those with a higher national rating. Most schools in fl are rated 1-4. No joke.

[boy3365]

Originally Posted by LPnerd

schools in FL are horrible! unless you get into a gifted program, or a charter school, there are a few of those with a higher national rating. Most schools in fl are rated 1-4. No joke.

Charter school? Please. On average, they aren’t so hot either. Nationally, they perform at the same level or worse than traditional schools. However, we typically only hear about the unicorns, which of course receive private donations and have high attrition rates. Claiming 100% college admittance when the freshman class went from 100 students to 60 students three years later is misleading.

[lhafer]

Originally Posted by LPnerd

schools in FL are horrible! unless you get into a gifted program, or a charter school, there are a few of those with a higher national rating. Most schools in fl are rated 1-4. No joke.

I noticed that. But coming from Texas, which actually is lower on the national average score than Florida, can’t be super choosey.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by firmbizzle

The bubble from 10-15 years ago is completely different than what's going on now. That was fueled by slack income verifications and gimmick loans. The housing increase that you see now was predicted as Boomers from up north sell their homes and move south; South Florida families looking for more land move north. Then you add that people will be able to work from home after the pandemic, they are coming in droves. Florida real estate has been undervalued for a while. We have more coastline than California and close to huge population centers on the east coast. Orlando is the only major city in Florida that isn't confined in its growth by water, it has a major airport, top notch amenities and a wide range of housing options for nearly every budget. The low wage, low cost of living days are ending.

Were are these remote jobs everyone keeps talking about that are permanent, not temp until everyone is back in their office?

Most of the ones I can find when searching online are stuff like Amazon customer service, mortgage companies, stuff that pays under 15 an hour except for stuff like accounting which can be done mostly on computer.

hard to work from home with high paying jobs like doctors, lawyers, etc.

I wouldn't mind a part time work from home job to supplement my income because I own a business at a fleamarket, but brick and mortar retail has taken a heavy hit here due to Corona. Any suggestions where I can look other than indeed or monster?

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by LPnerd

schools in FL are horrible! unless you get into a gifted program, or a charter school, there are a few of those with a higher national rating. Most schools in fl are rated 1-4. No joke.

I agree there. It's likely why you don't see as many big companies down here. Less talent pool.

I'm in no way trying to sound insulting btw but a lot of the people who FL born and raised and went to public schools down here are not very bright.

It seems the further north in FL you go the schools are a bit better though.

[firmbizzle]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

Were are these remote jobs everyone keeps talking about that are permanent, not temp until everyone is back in their office?

Most of the ones I can find when searching online are stuff like Amazon customer service, mortgage companies, stuff that pays under 15 an hour except for stuff like accounting which can be done mostly on computer.

hard to work from home with high paying jobs like doctors, lawyers, etc.

I wouldn't mind a part time work from home job to supplement my income because I own a business at a fleamarket, but brick and mortar retail has taken a heavy hit here due to Corona. Any suggestions where I can look other than indeed or monster?

We see posts about people working remotely and moving to Florida nearly every day.

[boy3365]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

Were are these remote jobs everyone keeps talking about that are permanent, not temp until everyone is back in their office?

Most of the ones I can find when searching online are stuff like Amazon customer service, mortgage companies, stuff that pays under 15 an hour except for stuff like accounting which can be done mostly on computer.

hard to work from home with high paying jobs like doctors, lawyers, etc.

I wouldn't mind a part time work from home job to supplement my income because I own a business at a fleamarket, but brick and mortar retail has taken a heavy hit here due to Corona. Any suggestions where I can look other than indeed or monster?

Originally Posted by firmbizzle

We see posts about people working remotely and moving to Florida nearly every day.

I could be wrong, but it looks like these people are those who got jobs in those other places, went remote, and THEN choose to move here.

So, they went to some college near or in a bigger city in the Northeast or Midwest, got a job in one of those cities up there, went remote, and now can live full time or snowbird in Florida. These people aren't coming from UCF, UF, FSU, etc. getting a job in Orlando or Tampa, and (pre-COVID) going remote.

Just my hunch.

[kyle19125]

Originally Posted by boy3365

I could be wrong, but it looks like these people are those who got jobs in those other places, went remote, and THEN choose to move here.

So, they went to some college near or in a bigger city in the Northeast or Midwest, got a job in one of those cities up there, went remote, and now can live full time or snowbird in Florida. These people aren't coming from UCF, UF, FSU, etc. getting a job in Orlando or Tampa, and (pre-COVID) going remote.

Just my hunch.

I think you're spot on given there's no way the 12 major FL universities are graduating 60K-70K grads per year into the local job markets (not to mention all of the community colleges), on top of the net migration numbers we're seeing with inbound population growth.