Housing bubble? (Winter Garden, Clermont: insurance, credit, home)

[drive carephilly]

Originally Posted by LPnerd

schools in FL are horrible! unless you get into a gifted program, or a charter school, there are a few of those with a higher national rating. Most schools in fl are rated 1-4. No joke.

Statewide the schools aren't great but horrible? They're slightly better than average nationally - FL ranks something like 22 out of 50.

When I lived in Philly you had to pay good money to live in the best neighborhoods to get your kid into an OK school. If you moved to the suburbs - NJ for example, has some of the best public schools in the country. You still pay a lot to live in the better districts.

When I lived in the Bay Area it was the same thing. We paid a ton of money to be in a mediocre school district. Sure, Palo Alto has great schools, but the cheapest 2/1 on the market is right next to the 101 and pending at $788k . . . and is probably under contract for over $800k.

Good schools cost money. It doesn't matter where you live.

[drive carephilly]

People always talk about a bubble as if there isn't strong local demand and strong snowbird/tourist demand at the same time. The problem as I see it, and I work in this business, is that you have a pretty well documented housing shortage at the lower income brackets. Call it what you will, a wage problem or a housing shortage.

https://www.ucf.edu/pegasus/out-of-moves/

https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/...o%20apartments

You also have a sprawl problem at the upper income brackets. The culture here isn't, "Buy a townhome or condo near downtown," it's "buy +7,000 square feet with 2 acres on a lake." It's also a middle class problem. Too many people still expect a 1/4 acre or more. There's just not enough land that's dry for that.

https://www.bloomberg.com/toaster/v2...ideTitles=true

Anyway, this should be obvious to anyone who has looked at local rents recently then looked at what a mortgage would cost them for the same property (or even something bigger). I just did it and I got more than 2x the space while paying 20% more for a mortgage vs. what I paid in rent and all I did was move 6 blocks away.

We have a good supply of townhomes and detached single family but a serious undersupply of apartments. And the anti-apartment NIMBY sentiment is strong in some places. I saw a lot of it when I worked in Seminole Co. and that bleeds over into the area around UCF on the Orange side, too.

[LPnerd]

Originally Posted by drive carephilly

Statewide the schools aren't great but horrible? They're slightly better than average nationally - FL ranks something like 22 out of 50.

When I lived in Philly you had to pay good money to live in the best neighborhoods to get your kid into an OK school. If you moved to the suburbs - NJ for example, has some of the best public schools in the country. You still pay a lot to live in the better districts.

When I lived in the Bay Area it was the same thing. We paid a ton of money to be in a mediocre school district. Sure, Palo Alto has great schools, but the cheapest 2/1 on the market is right next to the 101 and pending at $788k . . . and is probably under contract for over $800k.

Good schools cost money. It doesn't matter where you live.

I lived in fl. for 20 yrs, they are ranked among the lowest. I have no idea where you got this unreliable info, but man, is it wrong. We are moving back, in looking for homes , you can look up schools in that area with the NATIONAL great schools grade. We have yet to find a school rated higher then a 3 out of ten.
The only thing I can think of is perhaps you are looking at grades of Magnet, pvt. or charter schools, but the only school in the national bases lower than FL are AL. and MS.

[LPnerd]

Originally Posted by boy3365

Charter school? Please. On average, they aren’t so hot either. Nationally, they perform at the same level or worse than traditional schools. However, we typically only hear about the unicorns, which of course receive private donations and have high attrition rates. Claiming 100% college admittance when the freshman class went from 100 students to 60 students three years later is misleading.

Thanks, I will watch for that!

[LPnerd]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

I agree there. It's likely why you don't see as many big companies down here. Less talent pool.

I'm in no way trying to sound insulting btw but a lot of the people who FL born and raised and went to public schools down here are not very bright.

It seems the further north in FL you go the schools are a bit better though.

After living in FL for 20 years, one of the first things we noticed was even at checkouts in stores, people could actually converse using good grammar, English and could make change if the register was off for some reason. It was such a pleasant surprise.

[lhafer]

Originally Posted by LPnerd

After living in FL for 20 years, one of the first things we noticed was even at checkouts in stores, people could actually converse using good grammar, English and could make change if the register was off for some reason. It was such a pleasant surprise.

Where did you move to from Florida?

[drive carephilly]

Originally Posted by LPnerd

I lived in fl. for 20 yrs, they are ranked among the lowest. I have no idea where you got this unreliable info,

US News & World Report - the authority on school rankings for at least the last 40 years.
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...ings/education

Sort by K-12, Florida is #27

but man, is it wrong. We are moving back, in looking for homes , you can look up schools in that area with the NATIONAL great schools grade. We have yet to find a school rated higher then a 3 out of ten.
The only thing I can think of is perhaps you are looking at grades of Magnet, pvt. or charter schools, but the only school in the national bases lower than FL are AL. and MS.

Again, not sure what you're talking about because I was just on the Great Schools website and see plenty of 7s, 8s, and 9s in the same neighborhoods everyone on here always talks about. If you know something we don't please post a link.

[Kayaker13]

Originally Posted by firmbizzle

The bubble from 10-15 years ago is completely different than what's going on now. That was fueled by slack income verifications and gimmick loans. The housing increase that you see now was predicted as Boomers from up north sell their homes and move south; South Florida families looking for more land move north. Then you add that people will be able to work from home after the pandemic, they are coming in droves. Florida real estate has been undervalued for a while. We have more coastline than California and close to huge population centers on the east coast. Orlando is the only major city in Florida that isn't confined in its growth by water, it has a major airport, top notch amenities and a wide range of housing options for nearly every budget. The low wage, low cost of living days are ending.

The problem is this is not just happening in Orlando; it is happening everywhere. People in other areas of Florida and the country are experiencing this with RE and RE prices as well. A friend in the Mid-Atlantic told me that people are starting bidding wars on houses rather than make lower offers. So, while this bubble has not occurred due to the same reasons, it does indeed appear to be a widespread bubble. I'd be scared to buy now because these housing prices WILL go down and, even though people are getting loans at lower interest rates, how will they recoup their $$ if they decide to sell?

[ANT365]

We were looking to buy in the Orlando area, but instead looked at neighboring cities and found that we got more for our money. It's a crazy seller's market right now because of the rates. I would encourage anyone who ever thought of selling to sell now. So right now I think we have two options. Take advantage of these crazy interest rates, or wait to see values come down. That's what we are trying to decide at aimpropertyhelp.com, our real estate business. We want to buy now but feel we will miss out on cheap deals. We are starting to lean towards buying now because we know for a fact the rates are low, but We don't know when interest rates will rise, or how soon or how low property values are going to go down, especially if governments continue to extend foreclosure bans. Many people feel like we will have a crash like 08, but I don't think it will be as bad as 08.

[hts]

The economy is about to catch fire. Trump, like him or not, did many positive things to help us become more competitive. And then covid hit. And now we're on the cusp of getting past covid and I firmly expect the economy to return like gangbusters (4% national unemployment, strong RE and stock market, etc.). Of course that may lead to interest rate hikes, which could significantly slow the RE market.

I for one think that Orlando will always be a desirable place to move to for obvious reasons (we're relocating from Austin, TX in fact). Yes we sold high here and paid more than I would have liked for a much smaller, production build, in a planned community (we built a custom farmhouse here on 2.5 acres just outside Austin when we moved here 6 years ago), but it's extremely difficult to sell high and buy low (good luck and congrats to those of you able to pull it off).