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As someone who is a far right conservative republican, I have been starting to make really detailed predictions on who will win each state between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and the chances, and what makes each candidate the favorite in the different states. So I am a huge Trump supporter, and I believe that Pennsylvania is one key battleground State that could literally decide the election depending on the other states.
Back in 2016, I never expected Trump to flip Pennsylvania because it has been blue for a long time. Pennsylvania, and Michigan are the two states that really surprised me with Trump flipping them. The rest I expected Trump to do pretty well in, but not PA or MI.
So I'd like to ask you guys, what has changed in the state since 2016? I still think Joe Biden is the slight favorite for PA in 2020, because I believe there is a liberal population growth in Philadelphia that keeps growing every year.
Looking at 2016, some huge counties that Trump managed to flip were: Northampton, and Erie. While he didn't flip Bucks County, he did exceptionally well and it was very close. When we look forward to 2020, what are the chances those counties will go for Trump again? What do you think of Bucks County? Is there growing conservative support there? I also wonder about Chester County, because although Clinton won it in 2016, Romney took it in 2012, so I believe Trump has a slight chances on flipping Chester County as well.
One of my friends was telling me that there is a growing conservative population in PA, and the really only parts that are highly liberal are Philadelphia, and the suburbs in Delaware and Montgomery Counties, and then Pittsburgh. Harrisburg is slightly blue but by much less than one would expect according to him.
Also why was Centre County slightly blue in 2016? Is there any big city there or something? Only driven through it and really have never been there, so I found it quite odd as to what is attracting liberal support there.
How would you say the Pandemic has affected the way Pennsylvanians might vote? I know that many people in PA are not happy with the way Gov. Tom Wolf has been handling the pandemic especially outside the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area.
So Please, can you tell me who you think will carry PA in the 2020 Elections, and Why? Would you say that Trump has a good chance in winning PA again? I predict that we republicans might lose this state by a small margin, but I hope I am wrong. Also if you have inside reasons as to why and how Trump flipped PA in 2016, please share them as well.
Also why was Centre County slightly blue in 2016? Is there any big city there or something? Only driven through it and really have never been there, so I found it quite odd as to what is attracting liberal support there.
Penn State is in Centre County and the college town around it (State College) skews blue. The more rural parts of the county skew red.
As someone who is a far right conservative republican, I have been starting to make really detailed predictions on who will win each state between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and the chances, and what makes each candidate the favorite in the different states. So I am a huge Trump supporter, and I believe that Pennsylvania is one key battleground State that could literally decide the election depending on the other states.
Back in 2016, I never expected Trump to flip Pennsylvania because it has been blue for a long time. Pennsylvania, and Michigan are the two states that really surprised me with Trump flipping them. The rest I expected Trump to do pretty well in, but not PA or MI.
So I'd like to ask you guys, what has changed in the state since 2016? I still think Joe Biden is the slight favorite for PA in 2020, because I believe there is a liberal population growth in Philadelphia that keeps growing every year.
Looking at 2016, some huge counties that Trump managed to flip were: Northampton, and Erie. While he didn't flip Bucks County, he did exceptionally well and it was very close. When we look forward to 2020, what are the chances those counties will go for Trump again? What do you think of Bucks County? Is there growing conservative support there? I also wonder about Chester County, because although Clinton won it in 2016, Romney took it in 2012, so I believe Trump has a slight chances on flipping Chester County as well.
One of my friends was telling me that there is a growing conservative population in PA, and the really only parts that are highly liberal are Philadelphia, and the suburbs in Delaware and Montgomery Counties, and then Pittsburgh. Harrisburg is slightly blue but by much less than one would expect according to him.
Also why was Centre County slightly blue in 2016? Is there any big city there or something? Only driven through it and really have never been there, so I found it quite odd as to what is attracting liberal support there.
How would you say the Pandemic has affected the way Pennsylvanians might vote? I know that many people in PA are not happy with the way Gov. Tom Wolf has been handling the pandemic especially outside the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area.
So Please, can you tell me who you think will carry PA in the 2020 Elections, and Why? Would you say that Trump has a good chance in winning PA again? I predict that we republicans might lose this state by a small margin, but I hope I am wrong. Also if you have inside reasons as to why and how Trump flipped PA in 2016, please share them as well.
Looking forward to hearing all of your thoughts!
My quick two cents.
1. I believe that Pennsylvania will be the MOST important state in the 2020 election. The candidate that wins PA will win the election.
2. I would say the most populated parts of PA lean moderate / liberal as the years go on, notably the Philadelphia suburbs, Lancaster County, and Lehigh Valley. And going forward, the only parts of PA that are growing are those regions, and its shows in every census and every election.
3. Chester County, along with Bucks County are considered moderate to liberal. Socially liberal and fiscally moderate is a good way to describe them. Chester County in particular has become more moderate / liberal as the years the go on. If Hillary won Chester County in 2016, I would be stunned if Joe Biden did not win Chester County. I view Chester County as a Montgomery County in the making. Its more rural on the fringes, but has an increasing wealthy, educated demographic over the years. Bucks County is another middle-ground county, but again, I would be stunned if any suburban Philadelphia County went for Trump in 2020. Delaware and Montgomery Counties, obviously no.
4. I don't know where you got the vibe that PA is becoming more conservative. The recent midterm election is a good example to prove otherwise. That is fine that you are a conservative republican, but being realistic, I would say PA's future is more blue than red. (Plus, Romney is a lot different than Trump).
Plus, it helps that Biden has very strong ties to PA. In 2016, a lot of people didn't like Trump or Hillary, therefore they either didn't vote, or thought Trump was the lesser of two evils. Many of those same people now loathe Trump and are fine with Biden. It will be a very interesting few months.
In summary, I know both sides of the state will come out in full force (assuming we are open), but I see Biden winning by a fair enough Margin.
Gov Wolfe is just a depraved communist dictator. We've seen how he acted, and how he continues to defy the legislature which ended his state of emergency. He refuses to comply with the law to order the state of emergency over, and now we have the lawsuit to see what happens. And now we see the PA legislature passing an amendment to require legislature approval of any state of emergency over 30 days, which is sorely needed, to keep a check on dictators like Wolfe.
IMHO, I think Trump will take PA, as I suspect many democratic voters have seen and likely have experienced the absolute devastation Gov Wolfes policies during this Covid-19 issue have caused. Then they see the PA legislature, which seems to be a Republican majority, trying to actually do the right thing. They tried to have PA re-open much earlier than what Wolfe wanted, which based on the actual Covid-19 stats, should've been done.
I am really hoping many democrats will actually see the light, and vote for the best person who have more of their interest in mind, versus a senile old fossil like Biden, who is a corrupt as they come.
1. I believe that Pennsylvania will be the MOST important state in the 2020 election. The candidate that wins PA will win the election.
2. I would say the most populated parts of PA lean moderate / liberal as the years go on, notably the Philadelphia suburbs, Lancaster County, and Lehigh Valley. And going forward, the only parts of PA that are growing are those regions, and its shows in every census and every election.
3. Chester County, along with Bucks County are considered moderate to liberal. Socially liberal and fiscally moderate is a good way to describe them. Chester County in particular has become more moderate / liberal as the years the go on. If Hillary won Chester County in 2016, I would be stunned if Joe Biden did not win Chester County. I view Chester County as a Montgomery County in the making. Its more rural on the fringes, but has an increasing wealthy, educated demographic over the years. Bucks County is another middle-ground county, but again, I would be stunned if any suburban Philadelphia County went for Trump in 2020. Delaware and Montgomery Counties, obviously no.
4. I don't know where you got the vibe that PA is becoming more conservative. The recent midterm election is a good example to prove otherwise. That is fine that you are a conservative republican, but being realistic, I would say PA's future is more blue than red. (Plus, Romney is a lot different than Trump).
Plus, it helps that Biden has very strong ties to PA. In 2016, a lot of people didn't like Trump or Hillary, therefore they either didn't vote, or thought Trump was the lesser of two evils. Many of those same people now loathe Trump and are fine with Biden. It will be a very interesting few months.
In summary, I know both sides of the state will come out in full force (assuming we are open), but I see Biden winning by a fair enough Margin.
This is a very good analysis, and I agree with much of what you say. Regarding PA becoming more conservative in some areas, that is what a friend told me, but not what I thought. He might be right about certain areas of the state, but definitely not in all areas as you mention.
Lancaster County is also in question I suppose, because Trump won it in 2016.
I would think that many wealthy people might be more likely to go for Trump actually. Just an assumption, but it would make sense. If any Suburban County of Philadelphia goes for Trump, I would think Bucks has the best chance, would you agree?
I was also thinking that Biden was born in Scranton and has strong ties to the state and it could help him. Scranton area might play a big role as well and there are many questions as to whether the voters there will be friendly to Biden or not.
If I am being honest and using my mind, it looks to me like it is Biden's state to lose. I say its maybe a 51-52% chance that Biden wins PA from the looks? Does that sound right to you?
I am not so sure if PA will completely decide the election but it will be extremely decisive.
Gov Wolfe is just a depraved communist dictator. We've seen how he acted, and how he continues to defy the legislature which ended his state of emergency. He refuses to comply with the law to order the state of emergency over, and now we have the lawsuit to see what happens. And now we see the PA legislature passing an amendment to require legislature approval of any state of emergency over 30 days, which is sorely needed, to keep a check on dictators like Wolfe.
IMHO, I think Trump will take PA, as I suspect many democratic voters have seen and likely have experienced the absolute devastation Gov Wolfes policies during this Covid-19 issue have caused. Then they see the PA legislature, which seems to be a Republican majority, trying to actually do the right thing. They tried to have PA re-open much earlier than what Wolfe wanted, which based on the actual Covid-19 stats, should've been done.
I am really hoping many democrats will actually see the light, and vote for the best person who have more of their interest in mind, versus a senile old fossil like Biden, who is a corrupt as they come.
Gosh I hope that you are right. I know that many Pennsylvanians are frustrated with Wolfe, but I didn't actually know about all the details you mentioned about the legislature and how Wolfe defied it. Really good points that I did not know. Maybe it will help Trump.
I am really hoping many democrats will actually see the light, and vote for the best person who have more of their interest in mind, versus a senile old fossil like Biden, who is a corrupt as they come.
I can't even begin to process this post, so I'll mostly refrain. But I will say that you have absolutely no clue what true "dictatorship" is if you are even making a remotely slight comparison between a public health emergency-driven lockdown and an actual, ruthless dictator. Frankly, it's insulting to those who've actually lived through a dictatorship. Your rights aren't, and never have been, threatened. And the GOP has done nothing but flout basic common sense, such as deliberately failing to report a confirmed case of COVID-19 in the Capitol.
Governor Wolf was well within reason despite some absurdly entitled citizens amongst us who apparently have no clue how public health or pandemics work. Most Pennsylvanians agree, too: Wolf polls much higher than Trump in judgements of responses to the pandemic: https://patch.com/pennsylvania/pitts...-numbers-trump
But I digress. Long story short, before the Great Orange Snakeoil Salesman was elected in 2016, Pennsylvania was actually trending fairly consistently Democratic in Presidential elections. Yes, there's been attrition in parts of PA--pockets of the Southwest and Northeast--from the Democrats to the GOP, but the real story is the Southeastern quadrant of the state (i.e., the Lehigh Valley, Philly area, and South-central) making some pronounced shifts to the left. I expect this to actually occur with greater intensity in 2020, as Trump is DEEPLY unpopular in the Philly area in particular. As others have said, this is the only consistently growing area of the state, too, in terms of population. The balance of political power has only shifted further to SEPA since 2016 as most of Western/Central PA continue to experience consistent decline.
I don't think it's going to be a blowout for Biden overall, but I'm reasonably expecting at least a 5% shift from R to D in 2020 as compared to 2016, which would give Biden an approximate 4% margin and unequivocal win.
Gov Wolfe is just a depraved communist dictator. We've seen how he acted, and how he continues to defy the legislature which ended his state of emergency. He refuses to comply with the law to order the state of emergency over, and now we have the lawsuit to see what happens. And now we see the PA legislature passing an amendment to require legislature approval of any state of emergency over 30 days, which is sorely needed, to keep a check on dictators like Wolfe.
IMHO, I think Trump will take PA, as I suspect many democratic voters have seen and likely have experienced the absolute devastation Gov Wolfes policies during this Covid-19 issue have caused. Then they see the PA legislature, which seems to be a Republican majority, trying to actually do the right thing. They tried to have PA re-open much earlier than what Wolfe wanted, which based on the actual Covid-19 stats, should've been done.
I am really hoping many democrats will actually see the light, and vote for the best person who have more of their interest in mind, versus a senile old fossil like Biden, who is a corrupt as they come.
1. I believe that Pennsylvania will be the MOST important state in the 2020 election. The candidate that wins PA will win the election.
2. I would say the most populated parts of PA lean moderate / liberal as the years go on, notably the Philadelphia suburbs, Lancaster County, and Lehigh Valley. And going forward, the only parts of PA that are growing are those regions, and its shows in every census and every election.
3. Chester County, along with Bucks County are considered moderate to liberal. Socially liberal and fiscally moderate is a good way to describe them. Chester County in particular has become more moderate / liberal as the years the go on. If Hillary won Chester County in 2016, I would be stunned if Joe Biden did not win Chester County. I view Chester County as a Montgomery County in the making. Its more rural on the fringes, but has an increasing wealthy, educated demographic over the years. Bucks County is another middle-ground county, but again, I would be stunned if any suburban Philadelphia County went for Trump in 2020. Delaware and Montgomery Counties, obviously no.
4. I don't know where you got the vibe that PA is becoming more conservative. The recent midterm election is a good example to prove otherwise. That is fine that you are a conservative republican, but being realistic, I would say PA's future is more blue than red. (Plus, Romney is a lot different than Trump).
Plus, it helps that Biden has very strong ties to PA. In 2016, a lot of people didn't like Trump or Hillary, therefore they either didn't vote, or thought Trump was the lesser of two evils. Many of those same people now loathe Trump and are fine with Biden. It will be a very interesting few months.
In summary, I know both sides of the state will come out in full force (assuming we are open), but I see Biden winning by a fair enough Margin.
I agree with this analysis. In 2016, Clinton only won Allegheny County in Western PA, and lost the state by only 0.7% in an election with a low turnout. A higher turnout will benefit Biden and Biden will do better than Clinton in Western PA. Trump did better than most people expected in many of the Pittsburgh suburbs, but these areas won't vote for him again. Biden will win many of the Western PA counties such as Washington, Fayette, Greene, Indiana, Beaver, Indiana, and Erie. Trump will dominate much of central PA the way he did in 2016 but not by the same margins.
I agree with this analysis. In 2016, Clinton only won Allegheny County in Western PA, and lost the state by only 0.7% in an election with a low turnout..
Low Turnout?
The only recent election that had a higher turnout in Pennsylvania than 2016 was 2008. 2016 had one of the highest turnouts in history in Pennsylvania at least!
2004: 5,731,942 Total in PA
2008: 5,932,248 Total in PA
2012: 5,670,708 Total in PA
2016: 5,897,174 Total in PA
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