PA Covid-19 death rate 10%? (Jacksonville, Penn: homes, dangerous, vs)

[VintageSunlight]

Looking at numbers for Bucks County, 5,718 people have gotten Covid and 564 have died. This is a 10% death rate. Lehigh Valley slightly less but similar numbers and I often shop in Bucks.

Yet, I'm hearing a 1-3% death rate in most of the country. Duval County, FL (Jacksonville area), which has had almost the same number of people with Covid as Bucks, has 64 deaths, about 500 less per same Covid population. I'm not hearing anything about this. Am I missing something?

A 10% death rate I have not heard from anyone, and is very concerning to me at least. Makes me want to reconsider doing anything inside a building.

[Muinteoir]

I can’t speak to the specific situation in Bucks County, but I’ve been expecting Pennsylvania to have some of the highest deaths per capita because of our older population. Something to bare in mind is the number of unaccounted cases, given that many asymptotic and mild cases do not receive testing. If these unaccounted cases could be factored in, the rate would look less alarming. This is not to minimize the situation or say that number is not tragically alarming, but just to put it into perspective.

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by VintageSunlight

Looking at numbers for Bucks County, 5,718 people have gotten Covid and 564 have died. This is a 10% death rate. Lehigh Valley slightly less but similar numbers and I often shop in Bucks.

Yet, I'm hearing a 1-3% death rate in most of the country. Duval County, FL (Jacksonville area), which has had almost the same number of people with Covid as Bucks, has 64 deaths, about 500 less per same Covid population. I'm not hearing anything about this. Am I missing something?

A 10% death rate I have not heard from anyone, and is very concerning to me at least. Makes me want to reconsider doing anything inside a building.

It's important to keep in mind undetected and therefore unconfirmed cases, which go undetected due to how mild they are.

There are estimates now that US cases are actually 10 times higher than confirmed cases, in which case the death rate would actually be 1/10th of deaths resulting from confirmed cases, or around 1%.

Now, that's not to downplay the potential harm, as 1% is still very significant (and can lead to ancillary deaths by critcially ill people overwhelming the healthcare system), but I think it's important to recognize that 10% is very unlikely.

[thecoalman]

Originally Posted by VintageSunlight

Looking at numbers for Bucks County, 5,718 people have gotten Covid and 564 have died. This is a 10% death rate. Lehigh Valley slightly less but similar numbers and I often shop in Bucks.

Most of the testing until recently would of been for people they strongly suspected had it because the tests were in short supply. You would need to randomly sample a substantial amount of people from multiple demographics to have better understanding of how many people have or had it.



The other problem is the death rate, what does that represent? Is it mostly old people in poor health? I'm not trying to discount that but you need to categorize those deaths to have better understanding of what the risks are. Healthy people that have died, elderly or people with underlying issues where it pushed them over the edge and last but not least people who tested positive but died primarily because of something else.


A fair analysis of this is many years off. For example they will need to look at uptick in deaths in the elderly population and more importantly what if any trend exists afterward.

[roodd279]

Right - the death rate is NOT 10%, not anywhere. It's 10% of the confirmed cases, in your area, maybe. Estimates of unconfirmed cases range from 3x to 30x - absolutely no one knows, anywhere - so don't fret over it. Means nearly nothing.

[charmed hour]

Originally Posted by VintageSunlight

Looking at numbers for Bucks County, 5,718 people have gotten Covid and 564 have died. This is a 10% death rate. Lehigh Valley slightly less but similar numbers and I often shop in Bucks.

Yet, I'm hearing a 1-3% death rate in most of the country. Duval County, FL (Jacksonville area), which has had almost the same number of people with Covid as Bucks, has 64 deaths, about 500 less per same Covid population. I'm not hearing anything about this. Am I missing something?

A 10% death rate I have not heard from anyone, and is very concerning to me at least. Makes me want to reconsider doing anything inside a building.

According to data released by the state dept of health, nearly 80% of the deaths in Bucks County were nursing home residents. The Lehigh Valley (and the rest of the state) also had a high number of cases reported in nursing homes, along with a higher mortality rate.



IIRC, 2/3 of all Covid deaths in PA were in nursing homes. Sadly, it shows a lack of oversight on the state's part. Nursing homes residents are a highly vulnerable population often having several co-morbidities. Research shows comorbids have a higher death rate in general.

[jtab4994]

Only 33 people have died this month (June) in Bucks County (not counting June 30). Compare that to mid-April thru mid-May when you had almost a dozen people or more dying each day. It seems that people in the most precarious health died quickly, which inflates the numbers early on. As more "normally healthy" people contract the disease and then recover, you will see the overall death rate decline steadily.

[VintageSunlight]

Originally Posted by Duderino

It's important to keep in mind undetected and therefore unconfirmed cases, which go undetected due to how mild they are.

There are estimates now that US cases are actually 10 times higher than confirmed cases, in which case the death rate would actually be 1/10th of deaths resulting from confirmed cases, or around 1%.

Now, that's not to downplay the potential harm, as 1% is still very significant (and can lead to ancillary deaths by critcially ill people overwhelming the healthcare system), but I think it's important to recognize that 10% is very unlikely.

I'm sure this is true, but this would be the case for Duval county too. Comparing apples to apples, a 10x higher death rate in a PA metro county vs FL metro county is concerning.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by jtab4994

Only 33 people have died this month (June) in Bucks County (not counting June 30). Compare that to mid-April thru mid-May when you had almost a dozen people or more dying each day. It seems that people in the most precarious health died quickly, which inflates the numbers early on. As more "normally healthy" people contract the disease and then recover, you will see the overall death rate decline steadily.

You won't hear that from the lockdown artists.

[Icy Tea]

It's considerably less than 1%. I've said before that as a bare MINIMUM, absolute bare MINIMUM, at least ten times as many as those who have tested positive for the virus have caught it. I'd wager money that 20 times as many would be a good starting point considering how contagious this virus is and how the symptoms range from practically none to very mild to serious to deadly. Even with a jump in cases since the lockdowns have eased, the death rate continues to go down indicating that its less dangerous than the fear mongers have tried to fool us into believing. I'd test positive as having had it and I had a cold in November that was a lot more serious. A cold I was over in a weeks time.
Now I hear that the two bozos that want to dictate over us( which is a chillingly accurate word), the Governor and Health Secretary want to force people to wear masks outside. Yeah, F them and just let those two fascist rejects from a George Orwell novel try to enforce that.