Will Chester County turn Blue? (Philadelphia, California: taxes, suburbs, residential)

[1ondoner]

According to Nate Silver's 538 website, Chester county could flip Blue in 2016. From my short stay in the County, most of the crowd I run and cycle with are liberals (healthy conscious), while the neighbors I've socialized with (over a drink) are gun-loving-low-taxes-pot-bellied-red-nicks.

If Chester County were to turn Blue, the shift would probably be driven by the female votes. I've also noticed, we are getting a lot of political fliers in the mail. However, wifey is getting 3 times as much flyers than me.

The model suggests that several traditionally Republican suburban locales with diversifying and highly educated electorates could be poised to flip and support the Democratic presidential candidate: Orange County, California; Gwinnett County, Georgia; Chester County, Pennsylvania; Fort Bend County, Texas; and Virginia Beach.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ote-maps-2016/

[jazzy jeff]

This morning watching the Morning Joe show they put up a chart by the pollster Marist showing Hillary up by 40 points in the suburbs of Phila. Kind of hard to believe. Could certainly see that in Montgomery County.

[Flyers Girl]

So, only liberals are health conscious and only conservatives like low taxes?

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by 1ondoner

According to Nate Silver's 538 website, Chester county could flip Blue in 2016. From my short stay in the County, most of the crowd I run and cycle with are liberals (healthy conscious), while the neighbors I've socialized with (over a drink) are gun-loving-low-taxes-pot-bellied-red-nicks.

If Chester County were to turn Blue, the shift would probably be driven by the female votes. I've also noticed, we are getting a lot of political fliers in the mail. However, wifey is getting 3 times as much flyers than me.






http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ote-maps-2016/

This kind of poltical shift, no matter what the unlying causes might be, started to happen in Delaware Co, for instance, at least 20 or more years ago. When I first became a voter in 1971 Delaware Co was solidly Republican. That is definitely not the case today.

The Inquirer published an interesting map of PA this week with a county by county breakdown.

[ElijahAstin]

Originally Posted by kyb01

This kind of poltical shift, no matter what the unlying causes might be, started to happen in Delaware Co, for instance, at least 20 or more years ago. When I first became a voter in 1971 Delaware Co was solidly Republican. That is definitely not the case today.

The Inquirer published an interesting map of PA this week with a county by county breakdown.

And with it, the Delco GOP machine is finally fading away, though my uncle, who works for the County, is still a registered Republican even though he hasn't voted for anyone in the party for at least a decade.

I recall just a few years back, Chester finally elected a Democratic mayor. It's insane to imagine that the machine was able to hold on for so long, which begs the question of why it would even want to.

On the judicial end, I believe the first Democrat in modern history to serve on the Delaware County Common Pleas court was a Wallingford resident they "let" fill a sudden vacancy until the term expired.

[pman]

Would be a shame if it became just another high tax, low quality service Democrat county but trump does not strike me as chester County material. The reason the suburbs define elections is they are willing to change their votes. Chester has long been a fiscally conservative, socially moderate place...not quite the Delco machine which is an outgrowth of the philadelphia machine which switched parties but still retains control

[1ondoner]

Article on Chester County

The county that's ground zero for Trump's suburban woes - POLITICO

I've noticed some Anti-Hillary/Trump yard signs have disappeared. In the last week, Hillary/Kaine yard signs have started popping up. I had previously seen bumper stickers but not a single yard sign.

I think Trump will do better than Romney is Delaware County but the jury is still out on Chester County.

[soulsurv]

Originally Posted by Flyers Girl

So, only liberals are health conscious and only conservatives like low taxes?

I believe Mr. Einstein said "healthy" conscious and red "nicks." Perhaps the latter is a new ball club???

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by jazzy jeff

This morning watching the Morning Joe show they put up a chart by the pollster Marist showing Hillary up by 40 points in the suburbs of Phila. Kind of hard to believe. Could certainly see that in Montgomery County.

That sounds too steep. The Inquirer puts her lead around 28 percentage points.

In Philly suburbs, a deeply negative view on Donald Trump, poll finds

Still terrible. You can't lose the city of Philadelphia and its suburbs by historic margins and expect to win the state.

[cpomp]

Much of the reason why Chester County still leans red is because the western half is still very rural. As the county continues to grow (fasted growing in the state) it will go blue.