Phoenix housing won't return to pre-boom until 2015 - article (Casa Grande: foreclosed, condo)

[wit-nit]

Egypts uprising is going to have a serious effect on the US economy this year effecting home prices, oil prices, groceries, etal.
Here is one of several news articles regarding this situation:
Egyptian Uprising | Suez Canal and US Economy | Hillary Clinton | Mediaite

[gtbguy]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

I agree with your overall point but as you know it depends on what type of market you are in. The luxury home market is still going to drop and homes in that range are still overpriced and will continue to fall. But I agree that for the 3 bed 2 bath starter homes, right now is a really good time to buy

Yep, I agree the luxury market prices have more to drop and that is the big unknown at this time. It seems like the $500K homes are kinda (I said kinda) stabilizing but the homes over a $1M, who knows what will happen there.

[gtbguy]

Originally Posted by nitram

Egypts uprising is going to have a serious effect on the US economy this year effecting home prices, oil prices, groceries, etal.
Here is one of several news articles regarding this situation:
Egyptian Uprising | Suez Canal and US Economy | Hillary Clinton | Mediaite

Yep, the media is really good at telling us the "sky is falling". Time will tell but I highly doubt we'll see the US econcomy melt. There is an end point the the Egyptian crisis, we just don't know when it will cease. I'm sure they are interested in seeing a new government (if thats the way it ends up going) get back on its feet again. In the meantime we'll contine to read internet articles and watch the news informing us the world is going to end. Yeah sure...

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

One thing for sure, we will have MONTHs (or possibly years) to argue if the market is going up or down. From ARMLS (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service) - armls.com

"According to the U.S. Department of Housing, based on a survey by the U.S. Postal Service, the Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale area shows 91,687 vacant residential addresses, a 4.9% vacancy rate which historically has been in the 1.5% range.** This glut will have to be absorbed before normal supply and demand can return."

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by gtbguy

Yep, the media is really good at telling us the "sky is falling". Time will tell but I highly doubt we'll see the US econcomy melt. There is an end point the the Egyptian crisis, we just don't know when it will cease. I'm sure they are interested in seeing a new government (if thats the way it ends up going) get back on its feet again. In the meantime we'll contine to read internet articles and watch the news informing us the world is going to end. Yeah sure...

I thought that oil well that was on exploded was going to ruin the US economy? Every beach was going to be destroyed in the world.

[azjack]

"At last year's conference, most experts agreed metro Phoenix's housing market would recover by 2014. The prediction in 2009 was for a recovery in 2012."

This line really made me giggle.

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by azjack

This line really made me giggle.

Exactly, which is why I brought attention to it before people started celebrating. They've made predictions before and have had to adjust them so what makes us think they won't do the same thing next year? For all intents and purposes, it's kind of meaningless to make a prediction if you know they are simply going to say "Sorry, now we expect the recovery to be in 2017"

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by azjack

This line really made me giggle.

Can we all conclude that when have soooooooo many variables interacting with one another, no one is going to be able to predict the outcome with any certainty????

Things like US debt, interest rates, foreclosure laws, cost of gas, tax policy, employment, the global economy, inflation or deflation, crime and many many other things can expedite a "recovery" or push it out for 10 years longer. Just ask Japan. Hell, no one is good at predicting things 6 months out in this volatile economy let alone 2014. I can pull a recovery year out of my butt as easy as any economist. Just pick out anyone of those variables and I can sketch-out a pretty convincing arguement any way I like. In conclusion, no one has a clue.

If a person is flexible and patient they should certainly wait to buy. On the other hand if someone else is paying for your home (in the form of rent payments) now very well might be a good time to buy in certain areas / neighborhoods or at the right price. At the same token, if you (rationally) lack flexibility and patience (as in you want a specific neighborhood with a certain layout like a one level etc), then it's better to buy at near the bottom going down versus near to the bottom going up. That's why I'm in the market to buy.

The reality is there are something like 50% of the people in the Valley upside down. Those people who walked, cannot buy right now which normally would be the typical trade-up home buyer. So between people that are trapped and the people that cannot buy, the market is paralyzed. Adding to the troubles, rational banks don't want to lend unless their risks are low (strong down payment or backed by the government). So for the foreseeable future, the major chunk of the home buyers are "investors" or 2nd home buyers. That's why 45% of all sales are cash. That's not going to change for a long time. As prices go down, it becomes chump change for people who have saved. Heck, I was thinking about buying a house for both of my Kid's (and renting them until they are out of college). Imagine being debt free out of the shoot.

I view the Valley as a bunch of mini markets. Some very well might be past their bottom while others have a long long (long) way to go. I have come to realize that an economist who studies and models the Valley doesn't have a-n-y more information at their finger tips than I do. So that 2014 date is meaningless to me.

[HonestOne1]

Once the Great Depression started, Franklin D Roosevelt attempted to bail out people who had overextended themselves in the stock market and destroyed themselves financially. He implemented program after program attempting to save these people from their own greed and foolish risks. All his efforts did was lengthen the Great Depression to over a decade.

Fast forward to 2005. Hundreds of thousands of people bought homes they couldn't afford. And thousands more purchased multiple homes on stated income and 100% financing that they had no business owning on paper. And we have implemented "doomed for failure" gov't programs to bail them out and modify their loans.

Once all of those people have taken up permanent residence in Mom and Dad's basement and section 8 housing, then we might see a start to the recovery.

You have to let stupid people fail or you will have an entire country of stupid people.

[Ponderosa]

Recent economic data, particularly today's eye-popping manufacturing report, suggest the economy is improving faster than even the optimists projected. Should the trend continue and translate into accelerating job growth, there is a very real possibility that home prices in markets dominated by foreclosures will rapidly recover. It is not at all outside of the realm of possibility that the median home price in Phoenix market could reach pre-boom levels by sometime in 2012. Real growth, i.e. back to trend, will take longer. Of course, you need do nothing more than turn on the news to realize there are serious threats to recovery in every direction from eurozone risk to mideast instability to burgeoning fuel costs to overly stringent lending practices. Still, things look rosier now than they have since this whole mess started.