Phoenix housing won't return to pre-boom until 2015 - article (Goodyear: real estate market, rentals)

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Recent economic data, particularly today's eye-popping manufacturing report, suggest the economy is improving faster than even the optimists projected. Should the trend continue and translate into accelerating job growth, there is a very real possibility that home prices in markets dominated by foreclosures will rapidly recover. It is not at all outside of the realm of possibility that the median home price in Phoenix market could reach pre-boom levels by sometime in 2012. Real growth, i.e. back to trend, will take longer. Of course, you need do nothing more than turn on the news to realize there are serious threats to recovery in every direction from eurozone risk to mideast instability to burgeoning fuel costs to overly stringent lending practices. Still, things look rosier now than they have since this whole mess started.

It is completely outside the realm of possibility that median home prices will reach pre-boom levels by 2012. It's one thing to say the economy is improving and it's another thing entirely to make a claim like this.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

It is completely outside the realm of possibility that median home prices will reach pre-boom levels by 2012. It's one thing to say the economy is improving and it's another thing entirely to make a claim like this.

Well, first I did not say "by 2012". I said "by sometime in 2012" which means through December 2012. Second, I say you are wrong. Median price needs to recover from about 115K to 150K in two years for this to happen. It's a stretch, but I think it is entirely possible. Whether it happens or not depends on things neither you nor I can predict at this time.

[sh9730]

All I can add to this discussion is that down here in Casa Grande the available listings are down by 25% over the last couple months. The low number of SFR listing on the various MLS sites (ZIP etc) was 289 just after the end of the tax credit last year...it shot up to a high that I saw of 430 during December, and today we are back to 321 listings. Now, the prices ARE LOWER. But I believe, that as Capn Bill points out (and maybe he has more accurate listing numbers than my unscientific survey), that as sales activity increases, prices will stabilize and eventually increase.

The house two doors down from me was foreclosed on last summer. They put it on market for a couple months and got very limited activity. They removed is from the market for awhile, and just re-released it with a price reduction during January. I have seen a constant stream of interest from both potential snowbirds, new families, and investors in the couple weeks it has been back on the market. It will be very interesting to see what it actually sells for in the end.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by sh9730

All I can add to this discussion is that down here in Casa Grande the available listings are down by 25% over the last couple months. The low number of SFR listing on the various MLS sites (ZIP etc) was 289 just after the end of the tax credit last year...it shot up to a high that I saw of 430 during December, and today we are back to 321 listings. Now, the prices ARE LOWER. But I believe, that as Capn Bill points out (and maybe he has more accurate listing numbers than my unscientific survey), that as sales activity increases, prices will stabilize and eventually increase...

Casa Grande

• Active 434 Jan 27
• Pendings increased in January to 133, which is a sign of stronger sales in the next 4-6 weeks
• Average sales price per square foot $46.88
• With the increase in Pending sales, the price could level or increase slightly in the next few weeks.
• The Cromford Market Index has climbed to 101.1.

Below 100 indicates an excess in supply
Above 100 indicates an excess in demand

The CMI gives an early indication of a change in the market. It uses a seven year history of active, pending and monthly sales rates to measure the balance of supply and demand.

[sh9730]

Thanks Bill. Is the discrepancy in the amount of active listings between my 322 and your 434 that your number is ALL actives (mobile, condo, etc..) whereas I filter my search to just SFR?

Just curious. Thanks!

[rjrcm]

Originally Posted by sh9730

Thanks Bill. Is the discrepancy in the amount of active listings between my 322 and your 434 that your number is ALL actives (mobile, condo, etc..) whereas I filter my search to just SFR?

Just curious. Thanks!

That would explain it. Today (2/2) all active is 423 vs 359 SFR only.

[sh9730]

RCJM,

Thanks. The remainder of the difference could be that the boundaries on your guys system is not exactly what the public sites offer etc etc..

[rjrcm]

Also, the public sites not tied to the MLS via IDX will likely lag the MLS, have stale data, etc.

[Boompa]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

Casa Grande

• Active 434 Jan 27
• Pendings increased in January to 133, which is a sign of stronger sales in the next 4-6 weeks
• Average sales price per square foot $46.88
• With the increase in Pending sales, the price could level or increase slightly in the next few weeks.
• The Cromford Market Index has climbed to 101.1.

Below 100 indicates an excess in supply
Above 100 indicates an excess in demand

The CMI gives an early indication of a change in the market. It uses a seven year history of active, pending and monthly sales rates to measure the balance of supply and demand.

If sales prices are below construction cost why would anyone build?

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by Boompa

If sales prices are below construction cost why would anyone build?

I've looked into building a house and the cost to build a home particularly in certain neighborhoods is not much cheaper than during the boom. It makes no sense to build a home right now because you can buy existing recently built homes for significantly less (as in 1/2 less) than what it would cost to build a new home.