Phoenix and Tucson to Merge? (Mesa, Scottsdale: sales, apartment, lease)

[observer53]

Dallas and Fort Worth were never 120 miles apart. I don't think any of the comparisons to that, or southern California fly very well. The conditions in California are VERY different. In Florida, it's all along the coast, it's just a different animal there.

It's not something I think any of us will see in our lifetimes.

[PhinsFan1]

Of course it could happen, to some degree. Perhaps not continues developments from PHX to Tucson, but you could have much more growth in the pockets between reservations. The population of the U.S. continues to grow, and those people have to live somewhere. In the 30 years that I lived in the 'burbs of DC (45 miles south), we went from living in the middle of nowhere to living in the middle of a giant metropolis. Baltimore, DC, and Richmond have essentially morphed into a giant city. Obviously there are pockets of open space, for various reasons (zoning, bases, etc.) But it happened in my lifetime and it continues to happen. Likewise with many other large metro areas, nationwide. When we first moved to AZ 8 years ago, southeast Chandler was barely a blip on the map. Likewise with Gilbert. Not to mention Casa Grande and Maricopa. Water is an issue here that they don't have in many other metro areas. But who knows what'll happen 50 yrs from now. No one can say with certainty that it definitely won't happen.

[AZtrails]

Look at how much the Valley has changed over the last 50 years. Each of the Maricopa County towns used to be separate. 50 years ago there was a cotton field on the west side of Scottsdale Fashion Square. Now there's solid development from I-10 and the Santan all the way to Carefree (40 miles), and between Goldfield Rd and Cotton Ln (55 miles). So almost anything is possible over another 50 years.

I agree with PhinsFan1. It's most likely there will be slow and steady fill-in where there's no reservation. Look at Marana -- for a long time it was just ranches, then a few homes, and now it's big-time.

[observer53]

Marana "big time"??? I guess that's all relative.

Yes, people have to live somewhere. Somewhere where there's water, it's not brutally hot in the summer, it's a reasonable drive to a decent job, and they aren't surrounded by what isn't even very pretty desert, except for a very few spots.

Yes, the metro areas have grown in the last 50 years. I've been here all that time, I've seen it. But to say there's going to be significant infill of all that open space, with gas prices as they are, not to mention the water issues? The people who live out there will not be working, as they won't be able to drive anywhere there are decent jobs. Any "development" will be Maricopa redux (on smaller scales), except a lot more remote with even less places to go or reasons to be there.

[AZtrails]

Originally Posted by observer53

Marana "big time"??? I guess that's all relative.

Yes, the metro areas have grown in the last 50 years. I've been here all that time, I've seen it. But to say there's going to be significant infill of all that open space, with gas prices as they are, not to mention the water issues? The people who live out there will not be working, as they won't be able to drive anywhere there are decent jobs. It will be Maricopa squared, or cubed, except a lot more remote with even less places to go or reasons to be there.

Yeah, "big time" is very relative. You got me there!

I don't think the fill will be anywhere near as dense as the Valley is now, but 50 years is a really long time. Who knows for sure? Developers were building south of Casa Grande in Arizona City a decade ago. From Picacho to the north side of Marana is just 25 miles.

Look at Google satellite and you might be surprised to see how many farms there are from San Tan down past Florence and Eloy, then over to Avra Valley and Marana. As we know, turning fields to homes is pretty easy. And homes take less water than agriculture. I don't think it will be a combined metropolis, but there will slowly be more development when measured by decades.

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Gilbert is a good example. It wasn't really there 30 years ago.

30 years ago??? You are being too generous, try 20 years ago LOL. Seriously, look at the census for Chandler and Gilbert in 1990. They were non-existant.

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by observer53

Dallas and Fort Worth were never 120 miles apart. I don't think any of the comparisons to that, or southern California fly very well. The conditions in California are VERY different. In Florida, it's all along the coast, it's just a different animal there.

It's not something I think any of us will see in our lifetimes.

I agree, there is nothing in between Phoenix and Tucson to warrant that type of growth. If it was along a coast, i could see how it would develop due to the desire for proximity to the ocean.

I remember talking to an economist in 2006 about Phoenix' growth and sprawl. He said "At some point, you are moving too far from the epicenter that the population becomes sparse due to being too far removed from jobs. This type of growth and sprawl won't continue forever unlike what the experts are saying." This was a time when people were claiming Maricopa and Queen Creek were going to be Chandler and Gilbert in 10 years. Needless to say, we can all see he was right. I don't see a lot of companies and jobs being created between Tucson and Phoenix to warrant growth in this area.

[AZtrails]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

I agree, there is nothing in between Phoenix and Tucson to warrant that type of growth. If it was along a coast, i could see how it would develop due to the desire for proximity to the ocean.

I remember talking to an economist in 2006 about Phoenix' growth and sprawl. He said "At some point, you are moving too far from the epicenter that the population becomes sparse due to being too far removed from jobs. This type of growth and sprawl won't continue forever unlike what the experts are saying." This was a time when people were claiming Maricopa and Queen Creek were going to be Chandler and Gilbert in 10 years. Needless to say, we can all see he was right. I don't see a lot of companies and jobs being created between Tucson and Phoenix to warrant growth in this area.

Early residents in an area are willing to commute further than we would and at some point, a critical mass is reached and jobs go to where the population is. Often, it's because land is cheaper on the perimeter. While growing up in the Valley, I was amazed when the Coca-Cola bottling plant opened up on I-10 in Guadalupe -- it just seemed so far out. And the battery plant on Chandler Rd, and later the Intel fabs, seemed likely to be overrun by tumbleweeds when they were built.

This isn't like pre-automobile days when you needed a local water source and a transportation node. Arizona will continue to grow. Not at the rate is has historically, but there will be growth over coming decades for the same reasons most of us moved here.

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by AZtrails

Early residents in an area are willing to commute further than we would and at some point, a critical mass is reached and jobs go to where the population is.

They are willing to commute up to a certain distance hence the reason the sprawl didn't continue to spread indefinitely. Arizona will grow but it will become more saturated in existing areas. People may have automobiles but automobiles have limits and can't overcome long commute times. At some point, the distance becomes too great and people aren't willing to live that far from the epicenter and thus critical mass is never reached in those areas which means no jobs there.

[badhornet]

Yes Phucson is coming!